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比特币 [BTC] 市场情绪开始转为看涨。加密货币恐惧和贪婪指数为 63,表明在 BTC 突破 6.4 万美元阻力区后,贪婪在市场上占据主导地位。
Bitcoin [BTC] market sentiment was starting to turn bullish. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 63 to show greed was predominant in the market after BTC raced past the $64k resistance zone.
比特币 [BTC] 市场情绪开始转为看涨。加密货币恐惧和贪婪指数为 63,表明在 BTC 突破 6.4 万美元阻力区后,贪婪在市场上占据主导地位。
However, a closer look at the data revealed a different story. Despite the BTC rally, the interest from the wider market was minimal. It was only a fraction of the frenzy seen during the 2020 run.
然而,仔细观察数据却发现了不同的情况。尽管比特币上涨,但更广泛市场的兴趣却微乎其微。这只是 2020 年跑步期间疯狂的一小部分。
A look at the popularity of the term “Bitcoin” on Google Trends underlines this point. It reached the zenith of its popularity in the first half of 2021. The rally from last October to March 2024 saw BTC popularity reach a score of 58.
谷歌趋势上“比特币”一词的流行程度就突显了这一点。 2021年上半年,BTC的受欢迎程度达到顶峰。从去年10月到2024年3月,BTC的受欢迎程度达到了58分。
In contrast, the score it set last week was 20. This meant that Bitcoin searches are only a third of what they were earlier this year, even as the king of crypto trades just 11% below its all-time high.
相比之下,上周的得分为 20。这意味着比特币的搜索量仅为今年早些时候的三分之一,尽管加密货币之王的交易量仅比历史最高点低 11%。
AMBCrypto took a closer look at other charts to understand what this means for the wider crypto market.
AMBCrypto 仔细研究了其他图表,以了解这对更广泛的加密市场意味着什么。
Bitcoin Dominance is key for understanding capital flow
比特币的主导地位是理解资本流动的关键
At press time, the total crypto market capitalization was $2.3 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance, or BTC’s share of the total market cap, stood at 57.66%. The weekly chart outlined the 60% area as a resistance zone.
截至发稿时,加密货币总市值为 2.3 万亿美元。比特币主导地位,即 BTC 在总市值中的份额,为 57.66%。周线图将 60% 区域描绘为阻力区。
The BTC.D chart generally has an inverse correlation with how well alts perform. A fall in BTC.D means that the altcoin market cap is rising faster than BTC’s, which would be a positive development for the alt market.
BTC.D 图表通常与山寨币的表现呈负相关。 BTC.D 的下跌意味着山寨币市值的上涨速度快于 BTC,这对山寨币市场来说是一个积极的发展。
However, comparing with the 2020 cycle, we see that it would be ideal if Bitcoin can embark on a long-term uptrend to draw capital to the crypto market. Once it does, this capital can “rotate” into other altcoin sectors, which traders and investors can profit from.
然而,与2020年周期相比,我们认为如果比特币能够走上长期上涨趋势,为加密货币市场吸引资金,那将是理想的选择。一旦完成,这些资本就可以“轮换”到其他山寨币领域,交易者和投资者可以从中获利。
Long-term investors can use this dominance chart to understand whether Bitcoin or the altcoins are the market’s focus at any given time.
长期投资者可以使用此主导图表来了解比特币或山寨币在任何特定时间是否是市场的焦点。
Another positive sign for alt season
另类季节的另一个积极迹象
The market capitalization of the top crypto assets excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum [ETH] are represented on the chart above. It broke out past a descending channel formation.
上图显示了除比特币和以太坊 [ETH] 之外的顶级加密资产的市值。它突破了下降通道形态。
In doing so, it also breached the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the 2020 bull run.
与此同时,它还突破了 2020 年牛市的 50% 斐波那契回撤位。
This set the stage up nicely for a strong performance from the altcoins in the coming months. From a technical perspective and looking at historic trends, the only way for the crypto market to go is upward over the next 3-6 months.
这为山寨币在未来几个月的强劲表现奠定了良好的基础。从技术角度和历史趋势来看,加密货币市场唯一的出路是在未来 3-6 个月内上涨。
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