比特币（BTC -1.96％）不再是数字黄金。这是技术股票。

加密投资者长期以来将比特币称为“数字黄金”。如果是这样，那么像黄金一样，比特币（BTC -1.96％）应该充当对冲市场波动类型和经济不确定性投资者目前正在经历的对冲。

Crypto investors have long referred to Bitcoin as "digital gold." If that's the case, then Bitcoin (BTC -1.96%) -- just like gold -- should act as a hedge against the type of market volatility and economic uncertainty investors are currently experiencing.

加密投资者长期以来将比特币称为“数字黄金”。如果是这样，那么像黄金一样，比特币（BTC -1.96％）应该充当对冲市场波动类型和经济不确定性投资者目前正在经历的对冲。

But consider what's happening right now. The price of gold just soared past $3,000 to hit a new all-time high and is now up 15% for the year. In contrast, Bitcoin has fallen nearly 20% from an all-time high of $109,000 in January.

但是请考虑现在正在发生的事情。黄金的价格飙升了3,000美元，达到了新的历史最高水平，现在在今年上涨了15％。相比之下，比特币在一月份的历史最高额为109,000美元的高度下降了近20％。

Gold appears to be on the way up, while Bitcoin -- at least for the current moment -- seems to be heading down. So, which is the better buy right now? The answer to that question may not be as obvious as you think.

黄金似乎正在上升，而比特币（至少在当前时刻）似乎正在下降。那么，现在哪个更好？这个问题的答案可能并不像您想象的那么明显。

Bitcoin: Digital gold or tech stock?A key factor to keep in mind is Bitcoin's correlation with the stock market. For much of its history, Bitcoin was completely uncorrelated with the stock market, and that was what made it so attractive to many investors. In 2024, WisdomTree (WT -1.53%) did a comprehensive study on Bitcoin and could find no correlation with equities, except for a few brief periods dating all the way back to 2012.

比特币：数字黄金还是技术股票？要记住比特币与股票市场的关联是一个关键因素。在其大部分历史上，比特币与股票市场完全不相关，这就是使其对许多投资者如此有吸引力的原因。 2024年，WisdomTree（WT -1.53​​％）对比特币进行了全面的研究，并且发现与股票没有任何相关性，除了几个短期的历史可以追溯到2012年。

In many ways, this lack of correlation made Bitcoin the ultimate portfolio diversifier. It's not just that Bitcoin was uncorrelated with the stock market -- it was uncorrelated with every major asset class. It seemed undeniably unique, and Wall Street bought into the idea of Bitcoin as a potential hedge against economic uncertainty and market volatility.

在许多方面，这种缺乏相关性使比特币成为最终的投资组合多样性。不仅比特币与股票市场不相关，而且每个主要资产类别都不相关。它似乎无可否认是独一无二的，华尔街将比特币的想法视为反对经济不确定性和市场波动的潜在对冲。

But something very strange has been happening in 2025: Bitcoin is starting to behave more and more like a tech stock. And there's a mounting body of statistical evidence to back this up.

但是，2025年发生了一些非常奇怪的事情：比特币开始越来越像技术股票。而且有很多统计证据可以支持这一点。

In March, British mega-bank Standard Chartered took a closer look at Bitcoin's correlation with stocks and found that Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq is now 0.5 and had peaked as high as 0.8 earlier in the year. At the same time, Bitcoin appears to have lost its correlation with gold, which is now just 0.2 after briefly touching zero earlier in the year.

3月，英国大型银行标准宪章仔细研究了比特币与股票的相关性，发现比特币与纳斯达克的相关性现在为0.5，在今年早些时候达到了高达0.8的高峰。同时，比特币似乎失去了与黄金的相关性，在今年早些时候短暂接触零之后，现在仅为0.2。

Those numerical changes might seem small, but they are momentous in the eyes of investors. They suggest that Bitcoin may no longer be a safe haven asset. Of course, correlations change over time, but Bitcoin is now marching in lockstep with tech. Quite simply, buying Bitcoin is just like buying a volatile tech stock these days. If tech stocks go down, Bitcoin will go down, too. And if tech stocks rise, Bitcoin will also rise.

这些数字变化似乎很小，但是在投资者眼中，它们是重要的。他们认为比特币可能不再是避风港资产。当然，随着时间的推移，相关性会发生变化，但是比特币现在与Tech一起锁定。简而言之，购买比特币就像这些天购买了挥发性技术的股票一样。如果技术股票下跌，比特币也会下降。而且，如果科技库存上升，比特币也会上升。

Image source: Getty Images.

图像来源：盖蒂图像。

Any argument that Bitcoin is digital gold now appears to be wishful thinking. How can Bitcoin be digital gold if it's not even correlated with gold? And why is Bitcoin falling in price if it's a hedge against economic uncertainty?

现在，任何关于比特币是数字黄金的论点似乎都是一厢情愿的想法。如果比特币甚至与黄金不相关，该比特币如何成为数字黄金？如果比特币是对经济不确定性的对冲，为什么比特币会下跌？

Where is the economy headed in 2025?

经济在2025年在哪里？

Understandably, many Bitcoin investors (just like tech stock investors) have become obsessed with the latest U.S. macroeconomic data. All of it -- inflation reports, consumer confidence reports, gross domestic product (GDP) reports -- is critical to understanding where Bitcoin is headed next.

可以理解的是，许多比特币投资者（就像科技股票投资者一样）都沉迷于最新的美国宏观经济数据。所有这些 - 通货膨胀报告，消费者信心报告，国内生产总值（GDP）报告 - 对于了解比特币接下来的发展至关重要。

The potential impact of large-scale, across-the-board tariffs is still very much unknown. If they tip the U.S. economy into recession at the same time that prices are rising due to tariffs, things could get very ugly. Just ask ChatGPT about what happened during the 1970s when stagflation became the new economic buzzword.

大规模，全面关税的潜在影响仍然非常未知。如果他们在价格上涨的同时使美国经济陷入衰退，那么事情可能会变得非常丑陋。只需向Chatgpt询问1970年代散落的新经济流行词时发生的事情即可。

According to conventional wisdom, you buy gold if you think the economy is headed for a recession because of tariffs. And if you think the economy will bounce back stronger than before as a result of America-first tariffs, you buy Bitcoin.

根据传统智慧，如果您认为经济因关税而进入经济衰退，您就会购买黄金。而且，如果您认为经济会因美国优先的关税而比以前更强大，那么您会购买比特币。

Will gold really outperform Bitcoin in 2025?

黄金在2025年真的要优于比特币吗？

Based on the latest economic data, Goldman Sachs predicts that gold could hit a price of $3,300 before the end of 2025. That's a 10% hike from its current price of $3,000.

基于最新的经济数据，高盛（Goldman Sachs）预测，黄金可能在2025年底之前达到3,300美元。这比目前的3,000美元的价格10％。

But guess what? Bitcoin can increase in price by 10% within a single 24-hour trading period. That type of performance over the next 9 months doesn't seem like a high bar to reach for Bitcoin, not when it has a historical record of delivering triple-digit annual returns.

但是猜怎么着？比特币在一个24小时交易期内可以上涨10％。在接下来的9个月中，这种类型的表现似乎并不是比特币的高标准，而不是在提供三位数的年度回报的历史记录时。

So, even though gold seems like the obvious, no-brainer investment right now and Bitcoin is behaving more and more like a tech stock, I'm still picking Bitcoin. At the end of the day, I'm convinced that Bitcoin will outperform gold in 2025.

因此，尽管黄金似乎现在是显而易见的，无能为力的投资，而比特币的行为越来越像技术股票，但我仍在选择比特币。归根结底，我坚信比特币将在2025年胜过黄金。