比特幣（BTC -1.96％）不再是數字黃金。這是技術股票。

加密投資者長期以來將比特幣稱為“數字黃金”。如果是這樣，那麼像黃金一樣，比特幣（BTC -1.96％）應該充當對沖市場波動類型和經濟不確定性投資者目前正在經歷的對沖。

Crypto investors have long referred to Bitcoin as "digital gold." If that's the case, then Bitcoin (BTC -1.96%) -- just like gold -- should act as a hedge against the type of market volatility and economic uncertainty investors are currently experiencing.

加密投資者長期以來將比特幣稱為“數字黃金”。如果是這樣，那麼像黃金一樣，比特幣（BTC -1.96％）應該充當對沖市場波動類型和經濟不確定性投資者目前正在經歷的對沖。

But consider what's happening right now. The price of gold just soared past $3,000 to hit a new all-time high and is now up 15% for the year. In contrast, Bitcoin has fallen nearly 20% from an all-time high of $109,000 in January.

但是請考慮現在正在發生的事情。黃金的價格飆升了3,000美元，達到了新的歷史最高水平，現在在今年上漲了15％。相比之下，比特幣在一月份的歷史最高額為109,000美元的高度下降了近20％。

Gold appears to be on the way up, while Bitcoin -- at least for the current moment -- seems to be heading down. So, which is the better buy right now? The answer to that question may not be as obvious as you think.

黃金似乎正在上升，而比特幣（至少在當前時刻）似乎正在下降。那麼，現在哪個更好？這個問題的答案可能並不像您想像的那麼明顯。

Bitcoin: Digital gold or tech stock?A key factor to keep in mind is Bitcoin's correlation with the stock market. For much of its history, Bitcoin was completely uncorrelated with the stock market, and that was what made it so attractive to many investors. In 2024, WisdomTree (WT -1.53%) did a comprehensive study on Bitcoin and could find no correlation with equities, except for a few brief periods dating all the way back to 2012.

比特幣：數字黃金還是技術股票？要記住比特幣與股票市場的關聯是一個關鍵因素。在其大部分歷史上，比特幣與股票市場完全不相關，這就是使其對許多投資者如此有吸引力的原因。 2024年，WisdomTree（WT -1.53​​％）對比特幣進行了全面的研究，並且發現與股票沒有任何相關性，除了幾個短期的歷史可以追溯到2012年。

In many ways, this lack of correlation made Bitcoin the ultimate portfolio diversifier. It's not just that Bitcoin was uncorrelated with the stock market -- it was uncorrelated with every major asset class. It seemed undeniably unique, and Wall Street bought into the idea of Bitcoin as a potential hedge against economic uncertainty and market volatility.

在許多方面，這種缺乏相關性使比特幣成為最終的投資組合多樣性。不僅比特幣與股票市場不相關，而且每個主要資產類別都不相關。它似乎無可否認是獨一無二的，華爾街將比特幣的想法視為反對經濟不確定性和市場波動的潛在對沖。

But something very strange has been happening in 2025: Bitcoin is starting to behave more and more like a tech stock. And there's a mounting body of statistical evidence to back this up.

但是，2025年發生了一些非常奇怪的事情：比特幣開始越來越像技術股票。而且有很多統計證據可以支持這一點。

In March, British mega-bank Standard Chartered took a closer look at Bitcoin's correlation with stocks and found that Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq is now 0.5 and had peaked as high as 0.8 earlier in the year. At the same time, Bitcoin appears to have lost its correlation with gold, which is now just 0.2 after briefly touching zero earlier in the year.

3月，英國大型銀行標準憲章仔細研究了比特幣與股票的相關性，發現比特幣與納斯達克的相關性現在為0.5，在今年早些時候達到了高達0.8的高峰。同時，比特幣似乎失去了與黃金的相關性，在今年早些時候短暫接觸零之後，現在僅為0.2。

Those numerical changes might seem small, but they are momentous in the eyes of investors. They suggest that Bitcoin may no longer be a safe haven asset. Of course, correlations change over time, but Bitcoin is now marching in lockstep with tech. Quite simply, buying Bitcoin is just like buying a volatile tech stock these days. If tech stocks go down, Bitcoin will go down, too. And if tech stocks rise, Bitcoin will also rise.

這些數字變化似乎很小，但是在投資者眼中，它們是重要的。他們認為比特幣可能不再是避風港資產。當然，隨著時間的推移，相關性會發生變化，但是比特幣現在與Tech一起鎖定。簡而言之，購買比特幣就像這些天購買了揮發性技術的股票一樣。如果技術股票下跌，比特幣也會下降。而且，如果科技庫存上升，比特幣也會上升。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖像來源：蓋蒂圖像。

Any argument that Bitcoin is digital gold now appears to be wishful thinking. How can Bitcoin be digital gold if it's not even correlated with gold? And why is Bitcoin falling in price if it's a hedge against economic uncertainty?

現在，任何關於比特幣是數字黃金的論點似乎都是一廂情願的想法。如果比特幣甚至與黃金不相關，該比特幣如何成為數字黃金？如果比特幣是對經濟不確定性的對沖，為什麼比特幣會下跌？

Where is the economy headed in 2025?

經濟在2025年在哪裡？

Understandably, many Bitcoin investors (just like tech stock investors) have become obsessed with the latest U.S. macroeconomic data. All of it -- inflation reports, consumer confidence reports, gross domestic product (GDP) reports -- is critical to understanding where Bitcoin is headed next.

可以理解的是，許多比特幣投資者（就像科技股票投資者一樣）都沉迷於最新的美國宏觀經濟數據。所有這些 - 通貨膨脹報告，消費者信心報告，國內生產總值（GDP）報告 - 對於了解比特幣接下來的發展至關重要。

The potential impact of large-scale, across-the-board tariffs is still very much unknown. If they tip the U.S. economy into recession at the same time that prices are rising due to tariffs, things could get very ugly. Just ask ChatGPT about what happened during the 1970s when stagflation became the new economic buzzword.

大規模，全面關稅的潛在影響仍然非常未知。如果他們在價格上漲的同時使美國經濟陷入衰退，那麼事情可能會變得非常醜陋。只需向Chatgpt詢問1970年代散落的新經濟流行詞時發生的事情即可。

According to conventional wisdom, you buy gold if you think the economy is headed for a recession because of tariffs. And if you think the economy will bounce back stronger than before as a result of America-first tariffs, you buy Bitcoin.

根據傳統智慧，如果您認為經濟因關稅而進入經濟衰退，您就會購買黃金。而且，如果您認為經濟會因美國優先的關稅而比以前更強大，那麼您會購買比特幣。

Will gold really outperform Bitcoin in 2025?

黃金在2025年真的要優於比特幣嗎？

Based on the latest economic data, Goldman Sachs predicts that gold could hit a price of $3,300 before the end of 2025. That's a 10% hike from its current price of $3,000.

基於最新的經濟數據，高盛（Goldman Sachs）預測，黃金可能在2025年底之前達到3,300美元。這比目前的3,000美元的價格10％。

But guess what? Bitcoin can increase in price by 10% within a single 24-hour trading period. That type of performance over the next 9 months doesn't seem like a high bar to reach for Bitcoin, not when it has a historical record of delivering triple-digit annual returns.

但是猜怎麼著？比特幣在一個24小時交易期內可以上漲10％。在接下來的9個月中，這種類型的表現似乎並不是比特幣的高標準，而不是在提供三位數的年度回報的歷史記錄時。

So, even though gold seems like the obvious, no-brainer investment right now and Bitcoin is behaving more and more like a tech stock, I'm still picking Bitcoin. At the end of the day, I'm convinced that Bitcoin will outperform gold in 2025.

因此，儘管黃金似乎現在是顯而易見的，無能為力的投資，而比特幣的行為越來越像技術股票，但我仍在選擇比特幣。歸根結底，我堅信比特幣將在2025年勝過黃金。