比特币（BTC）当乌克兰战争摊位坠毁

我在本周早些时候写了一篇文章，我不得不废除，因为它甚至在我有机会上传之前就已经过时了。

A bit earlier this week, I began an article that I later had to scrap because it quickly became outdated. The article was going to argue that gold is for war and bitcoin is for flight.

本周早些时候，我开始了一篇文章，后来我不得不废弃，因为它很快就已经过时了。文章将争辩说黄金是为了战争，比特币是用于飞行的。

The premise was that if Ukraine were to be thrown under the bus, it might prevent bitcoin from crashing. It also included this chart:

前提是，如果要在公共汽车下扔乌克兰，它可能会阻止比特币坠毁。它还包括此图表：

This indicated that a breakout from its recent range — one way or the other — would determine the next big move.

这表明从最近的范围（一种或另一种方式）进行突破将决定下一个大动作。

Well, here we are:

好吧，我们在这里：

Now, this could mean that Ukraine is not going to be abandoned, or it could simply signal the winter of crypto, as I’ve been predicting for months now.

现在，这可能意味着乌克兰不会被放弃，或者它可以简单地标志着加密货币的冬天，就像我已经预测的几个月一样。

We’re living in unusual times — and not necessarily in a good way. Gold is for war and bitcoin is for flight, so expect gold to trend upward over the next few years. If bitcoin rallies sharply, look for the wealthy insiders who are in the know and are about to go on the run. This could still happen in Ukraine, but in these situations, price movements will signal shifts long before the news does. So don’t wait for TV or social media to tell you what already happened days or weeks ago.

我们生活在不寻常的时期，不一定是很好的。黄金是战争的，比特币是用于飞行的，因此预计黄金在未来几年内会向上趋势。如果比特币集会急剧下降，请寻找富有的内部人士，这些内部人士正在知道并且即将继续奔跑。这仍然可能在乌克兰发生，但是在这些情况下，价格变动会在新闻传播之前很早就变化了。因此，不要等待电视或社交媒体告诉您几天前或几周前已经发生了什么。

If you want to doubt this breakdown, that’s fine — but it’s probably a good idea to set mental stop-losses, and even multiple ones, to manage portions of your holdings. The eventual low, when we get there, is likely between $40,000 and $60,000.

如果您想怀疑这种崩溃，那很好 - 但是，要设置精神停止损失甚至多个，以管理部分持有的部分可能是一个好主意。当我们到达那里时，最终的低价可能在40,000至60,000美元之间。

This is all part of a recurring cycle that has played out many times before. In these months of uncertainty, unexpected events could heavily influence the market. However, based on my model — which I’ve been writing about for years — this marks the end of the boom and the start of the crypto winter. It may give false hope, but there won’t be a $250,000 BTC this time around. Sorry.

这是一个经常性周期的一部分，以前已经发挥了很多次。在这几个月的不确定性中，意外事件可能会严重影响市场。但是，基于我的模型（我已经写了多年），这标志着繁荣的终结和加密冬季的开始。它可能会带来虚假的希望，但是这次不会有25万美元的BTC。对不起。

In the meantime, don’t forget counterparty risk. Not your keys, not your bitcoin!

同时，不要忘记对准风险。不是您的钥匙，不是您的比特币！