比特幣（BTC）當烏克蘭戰爭攤位墜毀

我在本週早些時候寫了一篇文章，我不得不廢除，因為它甚至在我有機會上傳之前就已經過時了。

A bit earlier this week, I began an article that I later had to scrap because it quickly became outdated. The article was going to argue that gold is for war and bitcoin is for flight.

本週早些時候，我開始了一篇文章，後來我不得不廢棄，因為它很快就已經過時了。文章將爭辯說黃金是為了戰爭，比特幣是用於飛行的。

The premise was that if Ukraine were to be thrown under the bus, it might prevent bitcoin from crashing. It also included this chart:

前提是，如果要在公共汽車下扔烏克蘭，它可能會阻止比特幣墜毀。它還包括此圖表：

This indicated that a breakout from its recent range — one way or the other — would determine the next big move.

這表明從最近的範圍（一種或另一種方式）進行突破將決定下一個大動作。

Well, here we are:

好吧，我們在這裡：

Now, this could mean that Ukraine is not going to be abandoned, or it could simply signal the winter of crypto, as I’ve been predicting for months now.

現在，這可能意味著烏克蘭不會被放棄，或者它可以簡單地標誌著加密貨幣的冬天，就像我已經預測的幾個月一樣。

We’re living in unusual times — and not necessarily in a good way. Gold is for war and bitcoin is for flight, so expect gold to trend upward over the next few years. If bitcoin rallies sharply, look for the wealthy insiders who are in the know and are about to go on the run. This could still happen in Ukraine, but in these situations, price movements will signal shifts long before the news does. So don’t wait for TV or social media to tell you what already happened days or weeks ago.

我們生活在不尋常的時期，不一定是很好的。黃金是戰爭的，比特幣是用於飛行的，因此預計黃金在未來幾年內會向上趨勢。如果比特幣集會急劇下降，請尋找富有的內部人士，這些內部人士正在知道並且即將繼續奔跑。這仍然可能在烏克蘭發生，但是在這些情況下，價格變動會在新聞傳播之前很早就變化了。因此，不要等待電視或社交媒體告訴您幾天前或幾週前已經發生了什麼。

If you want to doubt this breakdown, that’s fine — but it’s probably a good idea to set mental stop-losses, and even multiple ones, to manage portions of your holdings. The eventual low, when we get there, is likely between $40,000 and $60,000.

如果您想懷疑這種崩潰，那很好 - 但是，要設置精神停止損失甚至多個，以管理部分持有的部分可能是一個好主意。當我們到達那裡時，最終的低價可能在40,000至60,000美元之間。

This is all part of a recurring cycle that has played out many times before. In these months of uncertainty, unexpected events could heavily influence the market. However, based on my model — which I’ve been writing about for years — this marks the end of the boom and the start of the crypto winter. It may give false hope, but there won’t be a $250,000 BTC this time around. Sorry.

這是一個經常性週期的一部分，以前已經發揮了很多次。在這幾個月的不確定性中，意外事件可能會嚴重影響市場。但是，基於我的模型（我已經寫了多年），這標誌著繁榮的終結和加密冬季的開始。它可能會帶來虛假的希望，但是這次不會有25萬美元的BTC。對不起。

In the meantime, don’t forget counterparty risk. Not your keys, not your bitcoin!

同時，不要忘記對準風險。不是您的鑰匙，不是您的比特幣！