比特币 (BTC) 盘整至 10 万美元以下，所有人都在关注历史性突破的边缘

比特币 (BTC) 正处于历史性突破的边缘，在备受期待的 10 万美元大关下方盘整。

Bitcoin is consolidating just below the highly anticipated $100K mark after surging over 8% since the start of the year. As the leading cryptocurrency inches closer to a historic breakout, all eyes are on BTC for confirmation of its next big move.

自今年年初以来，比特币飙升了 8% 以上，目前正在略低于备受期待的 10 万美元大关。随着领先的加密货币越来越接近历史性突破，所有人的目光都集中在比特币上，以确认其下一步的重大举措。

Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Cycle Looks Strong Despite Failure To Break Above $100K – Here’s Why

相关阅读：尽管未能突破 10 万美元，但比特币牛市周期看起来很强劲 – 这就是原因

90% Of Total Bitcoin Supply Is Now In Profit: Key Metric Highlights BTC Strength

比特币总供应量的 90% 现已盈利：关键指标凸显 BTC 实力

Top analyst Axel Adler recently shared some insightful data on X, revealing that 90% of the total Bitcoin supply is currently in profit. This key metric highlights the strength of BTC’s recent rally and underscores the widespread optimism in the market.

顶级分析师 Axel Adler 最近分享了有关 X 的一些富有洞察力的数据，显示比特币总供应量的 90% 目前处于盈利状态。这一关键指标凸显了比特币近期反弹的力度，并凸显了市场普遍的乐观情绪。

Adler notes that such high levels of profitability typically align with bullish market conditions, fueling expectations for a breakout above $100K. A decisive move above this level could signal the start of a new phase in BTC’s bull cycle, inviting fresh capital and sparking renewed enthusiasm across the crypto space.

Adler 指出，如此高的盈利水平通常与看涨的市场状况相符，从而激发了突破 10 万美元的预期。突破这一水平的决定性举措可能标志着比特币牛市周期新阶段的开始，吸引新的资本并激发整个加密货币领域的新热情。

However, as the price consolidates, investors are cautiously awaiting confirmation of the next move. While the technicals and fundamentals point to a bullish breakout, anything can happen in the unpredictable world of cryptocurrency.

然而，随着价格盘整，投资者正在谨慎等待下一步走势的确认。虽然技术和基本面都表明看涨突破，但在不可预测的加密货币世界中任何事情都可能发生。

Bitcoin Bull Cycle Looking Strong

比特币牛市周期看起来很强劲

Despite the uncertainty and negative sentiment surrounding Bitcoin’s failure to break above the $100K mark, the current market cycle remains robust and bullish. BTC continues to hold key demand levels, reinforcing its bullish structure.

尽管围绕比特币未能突破 10 万美元大关存在不确定性和负面情绪，但当前的市场周期仍然强劲且看涨。比特币继续保持关键需求水平，强化其看涨结构。

Moreover, sideways consolidations, often misunderstood as stagnation, are critical for setting up large-scale moves, allowing the market to build momentum.

此外，横盘整理（通常被误解为停滞）对于建立大规模走势至关重要，从而让市场建立动力。

Adler shared some insightful data, highlighting the market’s resilience. Currently, 90% of the total Bitcoin supply is in profit, a strong indicator of market health. According to Adler, if the current cycle avoids “black swan” events—unpredictable and disruptive occurrences—the market could follow a trajectory similar to the 2017 bull cycle.

阿德勒分享了一些富有洞察力的数据，强调了市场的弹性。目前，比特币总供应量的 90% 处于盈利状态，这是市场健康状况的有力指标。 Adler 认为，如果当前周期避免“黑天鹅”事件（不可预测且具有破坏性的事件），市场可能会遵循类似于 2017 年牛市周期的轨迹。

During that period (depicted as “blue square #1”), Bitcoin demonstrated a bullish trend with minimal pullbacks, maintaining a metric level of 80%. Adler also reflected on the 2021 cycle (blue square #2), suggesting it could have followed the same bullish path if not for the disruptive effects of the China mining ban. This event momentarily derailed the upward trend, emphasizing how external shocks can influence market dynamics.

在此期间（描述为“蓝色方块#1”），比特币表现出看涨趋势，回调最小，维持 80% 的指标水平。阿德勒还反思了 2021 年周期（蓝色方框#2），表示如果不是中国采矿禁令的破坏性影响，它可能会走同样的看涨路线。这一事件暂时扰乱了上涨趋势，凸显了外部冲击如何影响市场动态。

As Bitcoin consolidates below $100K, its current pattern reflects a healthy cycle poised for further growth. Investors are closely watching for a breakout above this psychological barrier, which could signal the start of the next bullish phase. With strong fundamentals and minimal disruptions, Bitcoin’s path forward looks increasingly promising.

随着比特币在 10 万美元以下盘整，其当前模式反映出一个有望进一步增长的健康周期。投资者正在密切关注突破这一心理障碍，这可能标志着下一个看涨阶段的开始。凭借强劲的基本面和最小的干扰，比特币的前景看起来越来越光明。

Technical Analysis: Key Liquidity Levels

技术分析：关键流动性水平

BTC/USD 4-hour chart showing price action around key demand at $98K.

BTC/USD 4 小时图表显示围绕 98,000 美元关键需求的价格走势。

Bitcoin is trading at $99,100 after a robust rebound from the 4-hour 200 moving average at $98,299. The price also found support at the 4-hour 200 EMA, a key technical indicator that signals strength in the short term. This bounce has left investors optimistic about the potential for a bullish continuation in the coming days.

比特币从 4 小时 200 移动均线 98,299 美元强劲反弹后，目前交易价格为 99,100 美元。价格还在 4 小时 200 EMA 处找到支撑，这是表明短期强势的关键技术指标。这次反弹让投资者对未来几天继续看涨的潜力感到乐观。

On the 4-hour price chart above, we can also observe several crucial liquidity levels that could influence BTC’s near-term price action. A confirmed breakout past $100K will open up massive buy-side liquidity, contributing to a strong bullish momentum.

在上面的 4 小时价格图表中，我们还可以观察到几个可能影响 BTC 近期价格走势的关键流动性水平。若确认突破 10 万美元，将为买方带来大量流动性，从而带来强劲的看涨势头。

On the other hand, if BTC fails to reclaim $100K in the near term, the market may enter a prolonged consolidation phase, testing investor patience and allowing for liquidity to accumulate. A failure to maintain the current bullish structure could also lead to a deeper correction, potentially revisiting lower support levels.

另一方面，如果BTC短期内未能重回10万美元，市场可能会进入长期盘整阶段，考验投资者的耐心并允许流动性积累。如果未能维持当前的看涨结构，也可能导致更深层次的调整，可能会重新审视较低的支撑位。

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

精选图片来自 Dall-E，图表来自 TradingView