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比特币 BTC $63,603 自诞生以来已经取得了巨大的成功,但社区内的一些人仍然对其未来感到担忧。
Bitcoin ( BTC ) has achieved significant success since its inception, but some within the community remain concerned about its future.
比特币(BTC)自诞生以来取得了巨大的成功,但社区内的一些人仍然对其未来感到担忧。
On Sept. 14, a Redditor on the Bitcoin subreddit appealed to the community with a question on the most legitimate concerns about the future of BTC.
9 月 14 日,比特币 Reddit 子版块上的一位 Reddit 用户向社区发出了关于对 BTC 未来最合理担忧的问题。
What scares you the most about Bitcoin’s future? Source: Reddit
对于比特币的未来,你最担心的是什么?来源:Reddit
The response,”‘I don’t have enough money to buy more,” received the most upvotes, but many Redditors still shared their concerns. Cointelegraph has picked up a few and contacted some industry executives to see how legitimate those concerns are.
“我没有足够的钱买更多”的回答得到了最多的支持,但许多 Reddit 用户仍然表达了他们的担忧。 Cointelegraph 收集了一些并联系了一些行业高管,以了解这些担忧的合理性。
Concern 1: Quantum computing or AI could break Bitcoin one day
担忧一:量子计算或人工智能有一天可能会破坏比特币
In the thread, some community members voiced concerns about the possible implications of developments in quantum computing or artificial intelligence for the future of Bitcoin in terms of hacking potential.
在该帖子中,一些社区成员对量子计算或人工智能的发展在黑客攻击潜力方面对比特币未来可能产生的影响表示担忧。
Quantum computing is a new area of computer science focused on quantum mechanics to solve problems beyond the ability of the most powerful computers. Companies like Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) spent billions of dollars to build a quantum computer, aiming to launch one in 2029.
量子计算是计算机科学的一个新领域,专注于量子力学来解决超出最强大计算机能力的问题。像谷歌(纳斯达克股票代码:GOOGL)这样的公司花费了数十亿美元建造一台量子计算机,目标是在 2029 年推出一台。
Estimates of the likelihood of a quantum computer being able to break the RSA-2048 cryptographic algorithm. Source: Forbes
量子计算机能够破解 RSA-2048 加密算法的可能性估计。资料来源:福布斯
Despite Google’s first quantum computers potentially coming in about four years, there is still a “long way away from this being a real concern,” according to Trezor’s Bitcoin analyst Lucien Bourdon.
Trezor 的比特币分析师 Lucien Bourdon 表示,尽管谷歌的第一台量子计算机可能会在大约四年内问世,但“距离真正引起关注还有很长的路要走”。
“The Bitcoin community has proven its ability to adapt when necessary,” Bourdon told Cointelegraph, adding that Bitcoin’s decentralized nature allows the implementation of new quantum-safe algorithms.
Bourdon 告诉 Cointelegraph:“比特币社区已经证明了其在必要时适应的能力。”他补充说,比特币的去中心化性质允许实施新的量子安全算法。
Once quantum computing is real, it could introduce risks that are not exclusive to Bitcoin, the analyst noticed, stating:
这位分析师指出,一旦量子计算成为现实,它可能会带来并非比特币独有的风险,并指出:
Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan expressed a similar view, stating that the Bitcoin network can “move quickly to adapt to new technology, especially when or if a significant threat is detected.”
量子经济学创始人马蒂·格林斯潘也表达了类似的观点,他表示比特币网络可以“快速适应新技术,特别是在检测到重大威胁时”。
Regarding possible risks related to AI, this technology is more likely to enhance Bitcoin by improving its infrastructure and education tools, Bourdon believes.
波登认为,关于与人工智能相关的可能风险,这项技术更有可能通过改善基础设施和教育工具来增强比特币。
“One concern for Bitcoin users, however, is that AI can make phishing attacks more convincing. But those using hardware wallets and keeping their recovery seed secure are safe from such attacks,” he opined.
“然而,比特币用户担心的一个问题是人工智能可以使网络钓鱼攻击更有说服力。但那些使用硬件钱包并保证恢复种子安全的人可以免受此类攻击。”他认为。
Concern 2: Centralization of miners and whales poses market manipulation threat
担忧二:矿工和鲸鱼的中心化带来市场操纵威胁
Some Redditors also expressed fears over the growing centralization of Bitcoin miners and whales, which could raise concerns about market manipulation.
一些 Reddit 用户还对比特币矿工和鲸鱼日益集中化表示担忧,这可能会引发对市场操纵的担忧。
According to Greenspan, excess concentration of BTC in the hands of few could indeed lead to market manipulation, but it would likely be short-term.
格林斯潘认为,比特币过度集中在少数人手中确实可能导致市场操纵,但这可能是短期的。
“The invisible hand will always sort things out long term,” the Quantum Economics founder said, adding:
这位量子经济学创始人表示:“从长远来看,看不见的手总会解决问题。”他补充道:
Oobit president Phillip Lord also previously mentioned that centralization of BTC holdings could potentially impact the market. Yet he emphasized that owning a substantial portion of BTC “does not inherently provide direct control over the protocol or the ability to change its code.”
Oobit 总裁 Phillip Lord 此前也提到,比特币持有的集中化可能会对市场产生影响。但他强调,拥有大部分 BTC“本质上并不提供对协议的直接控制或更改其代码的能力。”
Concern 3: Bitcoin’s blockchain size could lead to dependencies on centralized proxy services
担忧三:比特币的区块链规模可能导致对中心化代理服务的依赖
“An ever-growing blockchain size means fewer and fewer actors and devices can participate on the network,” one Redditor wrote, suggesting that this could potentially lead to “dependencies on centralized proxy services.”
一位 Reddit 用户写道:“区块链规模不断增长意味着可以参与网络的参与者和设备越来越少。”他表示这可能会导致“对中心化代理服务的依赖”。
Bitcoin’s anonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, capped the BTC block size at 1 MB in 2010, apparently to discourage large amounts of spam transactions. Bitcoin Core developers increased the cap in 2017 by introducing the Segregated Witness (SegWit) upgrade, which allowed blocks to scale up to 4 MB.
比特币的匿名创建者中本聪 (Satoshi Nakamoto) 在 2010 年将 BTC 区块大小限制为 1 MB,显然是为了阻止大量垃圾邮件交易。比特币核心开发人员在 2017 年通过引入隔离见证 (SegWit) 升级来提高上限,该升级允许区块扩展到 4 MB。
Bitcoin’s block size from launch to September 2024. Source: Blockchain.com
比特币从发布到 2024 年 9 月的区块大小。来源:Blockchain.com
“Larger blockchains with higher transaction throughput may offer more transactions per second, but they compromise decentralization,” Trezor’s Bourdon said.
Trezor 的 Bourdon 表示:“具有更高交易吞吐量的更大区块链可能每秒提供更多交易,但它们会损害去中心化。”
He emphasized that Bitcoin’s block size growth is limited, with an average block size of 1.8 MB, while the maximum average blockchain size increase amounts to about 250 MB to 300 MB per day. He noted:
他强调,比特币的区块大小增长有限,平均区块大小为1.8 MB,而区块链平均大小最大增幅约为每天250 MB至300 MB。他指出:
Concern 4: Stricter KYC policies
担忧4:更严格的KYC政策
Some Redditors expressed concerns over growing Know-Your-Customer (KYC) regulations by governments around the world.
一些 Reddit 用户对世界各国政府不断加强的“了解你的客户”(KYC) 法规表示担忧。
According to Bourdon, Bitcoin users often view KYC policies as a concern, but such policies don’t pose a direct threat to Bitcoin itself.
Bourdon 表示,比特币用户经常将 KYC 政策视为担忧,但此类政策不会对比特币本身构成直接威胁。
Related: New zero-KYC proposal aims to secure P2P crypto transactions
相关:新的零 KYC 提案旨在确保 P2P 加密交易的安全
“Bitcoin’s design ensures that individuals can send and receive Bitcoin directly between wallets without permission,” the analyst stated. He then expressed confidence that Bitcoin will “remain beyond government control” amid growing adoption, stating:
“比特币的设计确保个人可以在未经许可的情况下直接在钱包之间发送和接收比特币,”分析师表示。随后他表示相信,随着比特币的普及,比特币将“继续不受政府控制”,并表示:
Concern 5: Mining rewards would become inefficient in supporting BTC security one day
担忧五:有一天,挖矿奖励在支持 BTC 安全方面将变得低效
By design, Bitcoin is programmed to cut mining rewards in half every four years, a process known as Bitcoin halving events. The latest BTC halving took place on April 20, 2024, cutting miner rewards from
按照设计,比特币被编程为每四年将挖矿奖励减少一半,这一过程被称为比特币减半事件。最近一次 BTC 减半发生在 2024 年 4 月 20 日,矿工奖励从
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