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比特幣 BTC $63,603 自誕生以來已經取得了巨大的成功,但社區內的一些人仍然對其未來感到擔憂。
Bitcoin ( BTC ) has achieved significant success since its inception, but some within the community remain concerned about its future.
比特幣(BTC)自誕生以來取得了巨大的成功,但社群內的一些人仍然對其未來感到擔憂。
On Sept. 14, a Redditor on the Bitcoin subreddit appealed to the community with a question on the most legitimate concerns about the future of BTC.
9 月 14 日,比特幣 Reddit 子版塊上的一位 Reddit 用戶向社群發出了關於對 BTC 未來最合理擔憂的問題。
What scares you the most about Bitcoin’s future? Source: Reddit
對於比特幣的未來,你最擔心的是什麼?來源:Reddit
The response,”‘I don’t have enough money to buy more,” received the most upvotes, but many Redditors still shared their concerns. Cointelegraph has picked up a few and contacted some industry executives to see how legitimate those concerns are.
「我沒有足夠的錢買更多」的回答得到了最多的支持,但許多 Reddit 用戶仍然表達了他們的擔憂。 Cointelegraph 收集了一些並聯繫了一些行業高管,以了解這些擔憂的合理性。
Concern 1: Quantum computing or AI could break Bitcoin one day
擔憂一:量子運算或人工智慧有一天可能會破壞比特幣
In the thread, some community members voiced concerns about the possible implications of developments in quantum computing or artificial intelligence for the future of Bitcoin in terms of hacking potential.
在該貼文中,一些社群成員對量子運算或人工智慧的發展在駭客攻擊潛力方面對比特幣未來可能產生的影響表示擔憂。
Quantum computing is a new area of computer science focused on quantum mechanics to solve problems beyond the ability of the most powerful computers. Companies like Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) spent billions of dollars to build a quantum computer, aiming to launch one in 2029.
量子運算是電腦科學的一個新領域,專注於量子力學來解決超出最強大電腦能力的問題。像Google(納斯達克股票代碼:GOOGL)這樣的公司花了數十億美元建造一台量子計算機,目標是在 2029 年推出一台。
Estimates of the likelihood of a quantum computer being able to break the RSA-2048 cryptographic algorithm. Source: Forbes
量子電腦能夠破解 RSA-2048 加密演算法的可能性估計。來源:福布斯
Despite Google’s first quantum computers potentially coming in about four years, there is still a “long way away from this being a real concern,” according to Trezor’s Bitcoin analyst Lucien Bourdon.
Trezor 的比特幣分析師 Lucien Bourdon 表示,儘管Google的第一台量子電腦可能會在大約四年內問世,但「距離真正引起關注還有很長的路要走」。
“The Bitcoin community has proven its ability to adapt when necessary,” Bourdon told Cointelegraph, adding that Bitcoin’s decentralized nature allows the implementation of new quantum-safe algorithms.
Bourdon 告訴 Cointelegraph:「比特幣社群已經證明了其在必要時適應的能力。」他補充說,比特幣的去中心化性質允許實施新的量子安全演算法。
Once quantum computing is real, it could introduce risks that are not exclusive to Bitcoin, the analyst noticed, stating:
這位分析師指出,一旦量子運算成為現實,它可能會帶來並非比特幣獨有的風險,並指出:
Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan expressed a similar view, stating that the Bitcoin network can “move quickly to adapt to new technology, especially when or if a significant threat is detected.”
量子經濟學創始人馬蒂·格林斯潘也表達了類似的觀點,他表示比特幣網路可以「快速適應新技術,特別是在檢測到重大威脅時」。
Regarding possible risks related to AI, this technology is more likely to enhance Bitcoin by improving its infrastructure and education tools, Bourdon believes.
波登認為,關於與人工智慧相關的可能風險,這項技術更有可能透過改善基礎設施和教育工具來增強比特幣。
“One concern for Bitcoin users, however, is that AI can make phishing attacks more convincing. But those using hardware wallets and keeping their recovery seed secure are safe from such attacks,” he opined.
「然而,比特幣用戶擔心的一個問題是人工智慧可以使網路釣魚攻擊更有說服力。但那些使用硬體錢包並保證恢復種子安全的人可以免受此類攻擊。
Concern 2: Centralization of miners and whales poses market manipulation threat
擔憂二:礦工和鯨魚的中心化帶來市場操縱威脅
Some Redditors also expressed fears over the growing centralization of Bitcoin miners and whales, which could raise concerns about market manipulation.
一些 Reddit 用戶也對比特幣礦工和鯨魚日益集中化表示擔憂,這可能會引發對市場操縱的擔憂。
According to Greenspan, excess concentration of BTC in the hands of few could indeed lead to market manipulation, but it would likely be short-term.
葛林斯潘認為,比特幣過度集中在少數人手中確實可能導致市場操縱,但這可能是短期的。
“The invisible hand will always sort things out long term,” the Quantum Economics founder said, adding:
這位量子經濟學創始人表示:「從長遠來看,看不見的手總是會解決問題。」他補充道:
Oobit president Phillip Lord also previously mentioned that centralization of BTC holdings could potentially impact the market. Yet he emphasized that owning a substantial portion of BTC “does not inherently provide direct control over the protocol or the ability to change its code.”
Oobit 總裁 Phillip Lord 先前也提到,比特幣持有的集中化可能會對市場產生影響。但他強調,擁有大部分 BTC“本質上並不提供對協議的直接控製或更改其代碼的能力。”
Concern 3: Bitcoin’s blockchain size could lead to dependencies on centralized proxy services
擔憂三:比特幣的區塊鏈規模可能導致對中心化代理服務的依賴
“An ever-growing blockchain size means fewer and fewer actors and devices can participate on the network,” one Redditor wrote, suggesting that this could potentially lead to “dependencies on centralized proxy services.”
一位 Reddit 用戶寫道:「區塊鏈規模不斷增長意味著可以參與網路的參與者和設備越來越少。」他表示這可能會導致「對中心化代理服務的依賴」。
Bitcoin’s anonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, capped the BTC block size at 1 MB in 2010, apparently to discourage large amounts of spam transactions. Bitcoin Core developers increased the cap in 2017 by introducing the Segregated Witness (SegWit) upgrade, which allowed blocks to scale up to 4 MB.
比特幣的匿名創作者中本聰 (Satoshi Nakamoto) 在 2010 年將 BTC 區塊大小限制為 1 MB,顯然是為了阻止大量垃圾郵件交易。比特幣核心開發人員在 2017 年透過引入隔離見證 (SegWit) 升級來提高上限,該升級允許區塊擴展到 4 MB。
Bitcoin’s block size from launch to September 2024. Source: Blockchain.com
比特幣從發佈到 2024 年 9 月的區塊大小。
“Larger blockchains with higher transaction throughput may offer more transactions per second, but they compromise decentralization,” Trezor’s Bourdon said.
Trezor 的 Bourdon 表示:“具有更高交易吞吐量的更大區塊鏈可能每秒提供更多交易,但它們會損害去中心化。”
He emphasized that Bitcoin’s block size growth is limited, with an average block size of 1.8 MB, while the maximum average blockchain size increase amounts to about 250 MB to 300 MB per day. He noted:
他強調,比特幣的區塊大小成長有限,平均區塊大小為 1.8 MB,而區塊鏈平均大小最大增量約為每天 250 MB 至 300 MB。他指出:
Concern 4: Stricter KYC policies
擔憂4:更嚴格的KYC政策
Some Redditors expressed concerns over growing Know-Your-Customer (KYC) regulations by governments around the world.
一些 Reddit 用戶對世界各國政府不斷加強的「了解你的客戶」(KYC) 法規表示擔憂。
According to Bourdon, Bitcoin users often view KYC policies as a concern, but such policies don’t pose a direct threat to Bitcoin itself.
Bourdon 表示,比特幣用戶經常將 KYC 政策視為擔憂,但此類政策不會對比特幣本身構成直接威脅。
Related: New zero-KYC proposal aims to secure P2P crypto transactions
相關:新的零 KYC 提案旨在確保 P2P 加密交易的安全
“Bitcoin’s design ensures that individuals can send and receive Bitcoin directly between wallets without permission,” the analyst stated. He then expressed confidence that Bitcoin will “remain beyond government control” amid growing adoption, stating:
「比特幣的設計確保個人可以在未經許可的情況下直接在錢包之間發送和接收比特幣,」分析師表示。隨後他表示相信,隨著比特幣的普及,比特幣將“繼續不受政府控制”,並表示:
Concern 5: Mining rewards would become inefficient in supporting BTC security one day
擔憂五:有一天,挖礦獎勵在支持 BTC 安全方面將變得低效
By design, Bitcoin is programmed to cut mining rewards in half every four years, a process known as Bitcoin halving events. The latest BTC halving took place on April 20, 2024, cutting miner rewards from
按照設計,比特幣被編程為每四年將挖礦獎勵減少一半,這個過程被稱為比特幣減半事件。最近一次 BTC 減半發生在 2024 年 4 月 20 日,礦工獎勵從
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