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加密货币新闻

比特币(BTC)可能在3月10日发现其底部略高于76,000美元

2025/04/02 17:08

这一举动形成了一种让人联想到最近历史上先前底部事件的模式。

比特币(BTC)可能在3月10日发现其底部略高于76,000美元

output: Bitcoin price action suggests that the flagship cryptocurrency may have found its bottom just above $76,000 on March 10, forming a pattern reminiscent of previous bottoming events in recent history.

输出:比特币价格行动表明,旗舰加密货币可能在3月10日发现其底部略高于76,000美元,形成了一种让人联想到最近历史上先前底层事件的模式。

In this current correction, bitcoin fell 30% from it's all-time high of $109,000 reached on Jan. 20. After hitting a low on March 10, it recorded higher lows on both sides of that date – around $78,000 on Feb. 28 and just above $81,000 on March 31 – forming a triangular bottom.

在此目前的校正中,比特币从1月20日的历史最高售价下降了30%。3月10日达到低点后,该日期的两侧都记录了更高的低点 - 2月28日的78,000美元约为78,000美元,在3月31日的$ 81,000左右,形成了三角形的底部。

A similar pattern played out during the yen carry trade unwind in August 2024, when bitcoin bottomed near $49,000 on Aug. 5. Again, higher lows were seen on either side: on July 7 and September 7.

在2024年8月,日元携带贸易期间发行的类似模式,当时比特币在8月5日触底了接近49,000美元。同样,两边都看到了更高的低点:7月7日和9月7日。

Another instance occurred during the launch of the U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. Bitcoin experienced a 20% correction, hitting a low just below $40,000 on Jan. 23, with higher lows on both sides of that date as well.

另一个实例发生在2024年1月美国现货比特币ETF的推出期间。比特币经历了20%的校正,在1月23日的低于40,000美元的低至40,000美元以下,该日期的两侧也更高。

"The latest pattern, indicating a shift from lower lows to higher lows and signifying seller exhaustion, resembles bottoming patterns seen in August and early 2024," Omkar Godbole, managing editor of CoinDesk Markets, said.

Coindesk Markets的执行编辑Omkar Godbole说:“最新模式表明从低点转移到更高的低点并表示卖方疲惫,类似于8月和2024年初的底层模式。”

"There’s reason to consider the possibility of renewed bullish momentum – though, as always, external risks like Trump’s tariffs could disrupt the trend," he added.

他补充说:“有理由考虑更新看涨势头的可能性 - 但是,与往常一样,像特朗普的关税这样的外部风险可能会破坏趋势。”

The number one question on investors' minds is whether an asset has hit its bottom after being in a sustained downtrend for an extended period of time.

关于投资者的头脑的第一问题是,资产在长期持续下降趋势后是否已经达到了最低点。

This usually occurs when there are signs of seller exhaustion, which can be identified through price action or technical analysis.

当有卖方疲惫的迹象时,通常会发生这种情况,这可以通过价格行动或技术分析来识别。

In the case of bitcoin, it appears to be forming a triple bottom, which is a bullish reversal pattern that occurs when an asset experiences three lows at roughly the same price level.

在比特币的情况下,它似乎形成了三重底部,这是一种看涨的逆转模式,当资产以大致相同的价格水平的三个低点经历三个低点时,就会发生。

This pattern is often seen at the end of a bear market or a significant sell-off, as sellers are unable to push the asset lower despite attempts to do so.

这种模式通常在熊市的结尾或大量抛售时都可以看到,因为尽管如此,卖方仍无法推动资产降低。

After hitting a high of $109,000 in January, bitcoin fell sharply to lows of $76,000 in March as a result of the yen carry trade unwinding and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty due to Trump's unexpected tariff announcement on April 1.

在一月份达到109,000美元的高价后,由于日元携带贸易放松并增加了由于特朗普在4月1日意外的关税宣布而增加的宏​​观经济不确定性,因此比特币急剧下降至3月的76,000美元。

However, buyers stepped in around the $76,000 mark, forming a triple bottom as they managed to prevent the asset from falling further on two separate occasions.

但是,买家介入了$ 76,000的大关,在设法防止资产在两次不同的情况下进一步下降时形成了三重底部。

The first instance occurred when bitcoin fell to lows of $76,000 on March 10, testing the Fib (61.8) % support level, leading to a rally that saw it test the Fib (50) % resistance at $94,000 on April 7.

第一次发生时,当比特币在3月10日下降到76,000美元的低点时,测试了FIB(61.8)%的支持水平,导致集会使IT测试FIB(50)%的阻力为4月7日的94,000美元。

After failing to break through the Fib (50) % resistance, bitcoin slid back down to retest the Fib (61.8) % support with lows of $78,000 on February 28.

在未能突破FIB(50)%的电阻后,比特币在2月28日以78,000美元的低点重新测试了FIB(61.8)%的支持(61.8)%。

This move completed the triple bottom pattern, setting the stage for a final attempt to break through the Fib (50) % resistance at $94,000, which was ultimately successful as bitcoin rallied to highs of $81,000 on March 31.

这一举动完成了三重底层模式,为最终尝试打破FIB(50)%的阻力为94,000美元的阶段,这最终取得了成功,因为比特币在3月31日上涨至81,000美元。

This analysis suggests that the triple bottom pattern has played out completely, setting the stage for a final push higher towards the Fib (38.2) % level at $89,000, which could be reached by mid-April.

该分析表明,三重底部模式已经完全播放,为FIB的最终推动(38.2)%的水平(89,000美元)为阶段奠定了基础,这可以在4月中旬到达。

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