比特币（BTC）必须避免在STH成本基础上滑动以维持看涨的势头

根据GlassNode的最新一周链报告，比特币（BTC）必须保持在短期持有人（STH）成本基础上，以避免潜在的下行风险。

Bitcoin (BTC) price must remain above the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis to avoid potential downside risks, according to Glassnode’s latest The Week On-Chain report.

根据GlassNode的最新一周的链报告，比特币（BTC）价格必须保持在短期持有人（STH）成本基础之上，以避免潜在的下行风险。

Historically, this price level has served as a crucial pivot point between local bull and bear market phases, making it a key area to watch.

从历史上看，这种价格水平一直是当地牛市和熊市阶段之间的关键枢轴点，使其成为关键领域。

Bitcoin Must Avoid Sliding Below STH Cost Basis

比特币必须避免滑动以下STH成本基础

BTC has been trading within a narrow range between $93,000 and $98,000 since the beginning of February.

自2月初以来，BTC一直在狭窄范围内的范围内交易范围内。

The leading cryptocurrency by market cap has managed to withstand the impact of several major macroeconomic events, including US President Donald Trump’s proposed trade tariffs.

市值领先的加密货币设法承受了几项重大宏观经济事件的影响，包括美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的拟议贸易关税。

However, BTC’s resilience does not guarantee immunity from shifting market sentiment.

但是，BTC的弹性不能保证免于转移市场情绪的免疫力。

Glassnode’s report emphasizes that for Bitcoin to sustain its bullish momentum, it must remain above the STH cost basis, which currently sits at approximately $92,500.

GlassNode的报告强调，要维持比特币的看涨势头，它必须保持在STH成本基础上，目前约为92,500美元。

According to the report, BTC is currently trading $1,000 to $5,000 above the STH cost basis.

根据该报告，BTC目前的交易价格高于STH成本基础1,000至5,000美元。

Past data indicates that the STH cost basis level has usually acted as a pivot point where the average recent buyer moves between a state of unrealized profit or loss.

过去的数据表明，STH成本基础水平通常充当一个枢纽点，在这种情况下，最近的买方在未实现的损益状态之间移动。

If BTC falls below $92,500, it would imply that the average short-term holder is at an unrealized loss, potentially triggering panic selling.

如果BTC低于92,500美元，这意味着平均短期持有人遭受了未实现的损失，可能会引发恐慌销售。

On the other hand, trading above this level means that most short-term holders are in profit, which could reinforce bullish momentum.

另一方面，超过此级别的交易意味着大多数短期持有人都在获利，这可能会增强看涨的势头。

Glassnode’s report includes a chart illustrating this trend.

GlassNode的报告包括一个说明这一趋势的图表。

As seen below, whenever BTC reached a new all-time high (ATH), followed by a correction, it tended to touch the lower band of the STH cost basis model.

如下所示，每当BTC达到新的历史高（ATH）时，随后进行了校正，它倾向于接触STH成本基础模型的下部频段。

The chart further shows that historical BTC downtrends have typically extended to about -1 standard deviation below the STH cost basis.

该图进一步表明，历史BTC下降趋势通常将其扩展到低于STH成本基础的约-1个标准偏差。

Applying this model to the current market cycle, BTC could decline to as low as $71,600, where the model’s lower band is positioned.

将该模型应用于当前市场周期，BTC可能会下降到71,600美元，而该模型的下频带位于位置。

Crypto Market Close To ‘Decisive Moment’

加密市场接近“决定性时刻”

The report notes that the crypto market is currently witnessing an accumulation phase which mirrors that of May 2021.

该报告指出，加密货币市场目前正在目睹一个累积阶段，该阶段反映了2021年5月。

Although new investors aggressively accumulated BTC in April 2024, the magnitude of the STH supply uptrend in the current cycle aligns more structurally with May 2021 rather than 2024.

尽管新投资者在2024年4月积极积累了BTC，但当前周期中STH供应上升趋势的幅度与2021年5月而不是2024年的结构更加一致。

As a result, the market is approaching a decisive moment, characterized by sharp price action in either direction.

结果，市场正在接近决定性的时刻，其特征是在任一方向上尖锐的价格行动。

The report explains:

报告解释说：

“If demand remains strong, Bitcoin could establish a new range above ATHs. However, a lack of sustained buy pressure could lead to a deeper distribution-driven correction, similar to prior post-ATH phases. This would likely be driven by panic amongst recent buyers who see their recently acquired coins move from being in profit to holding an unrealized loss.”

“如果需求仍然强劲，比特币可以建立高于ATHS的新范围。但是，缺乏持续的买入压力可能会导致更深的分布驱动校正，类似于先前的后阶段。最近的买家中，这很可能会受到恐慌的驱动，这些买家看到他们最近获得的硬币从盈利转变为持有未实现的损失。”

While downside risks remain, BTC bulls can rejoice as the US dollar’s expected decline is likely to benefit the flagship cryptocurrency.

尽管仍然存在下行风险，但由于美元的预期下降可能会使旗舰加密货币受益，但BTC公牛可能会为此感到高兴。

Similarly, sentiment around BTC is starting to reignite following the slump in memecoin frenzy. At press time, BTC trades at $97,100, up 1.2% in the past 24 hours.

同样，在Memecoin Frenzy的低迷之后，BTC周围的情绪开始重新点燃。发稿时，BTC的交易价格为97,100美元，在过去24小时内增长了1.2％。