比特幣（BTC）必須避免在STH成本基礎上滑動以維持看漲的勢頭

根據GlassNode的最新一周鏈報告，比特幣（BTC）必須保持在短期持有人（STH）成本基礎上，以避免潛在的下行風險。

Bitcoin (BTC) price must remain above the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis to avoid potential downside risks, according to Glassnode’s latest The Week On-Chain report.

根據GlassNode的最新一周的鏈報告，比特幣（BTC）價格必須保持在短期持有人（STH）成本基礎之上，以避免潛在的下行風險。

Historically, this price level has served as a crucial pivot point between local bull and bear market phases, making it a key area to watch.

從歷史上看，這種價格水平一直是當地牛市和熊市階段之間的關鍵樞軸點，使其成為關鍵領域。

Bitcoin Must Avoid Sliding Below STH Cost Basis

比特幣必須避免滑動以下STH成本基礎

BTC has been trading within a narrow range between $93,000 and $98,000 since the beginning of February.

自2月初以來，BTC一直在狹窄範圍內的範圍內交易範圍內。

The leading cryptocurrency by market cap has managed to withstand the impact of several major macroeconomic events, including US President Donald Trump’s proposed trade tariffs.

市值領先的加密貨幣設法承受了幾項重大宏觀經濟事件的影響，包括美國總統唐納德·特朗普的擬議貿易關稅。

However, BTC’s resilience does not guarantee immunity from shifting market sentiment.

但是，BTC的彈性不能保證免於轉移市場情緒的免疫力。

Glassnode’s report emphasizes that for Bitcoin to sustain its bullish momentum, it must remain above the STH cost basis, which currently sits at approximately $92,500.

GlassNode的報告強調，要維持比特幣的看漲勢頭，它必須保持在STH成本基礎上，目前約為92,500美元。

According to the report, BTC is currently trading $1,000 to $5,000 above the STH cost basis.

根據該報告，BTC目前的交易價格高於STH成本基礎1,000至5,000美元。

Past data indicates that the STH cost basis level has usually acted as a pivot point where the average recent buyer moves between a state of unrealized profit or loss.

過去的數據表明，STH成本基礎水平通常充當一個樞紐點，在這種情況下，最近的買方在未實現的損益狀態之間移動。

If BTC falls below $92,500, it would imply that the average short-term holder is at an unrealized loss, potentially triggering panic selling.

如果BTC低於92,500美元，這意味著平均短期持有人遭受了未實現的損失，可能會引發恐慌銷售。

On the other hand, trading above this level means that most short-term holders are in profit, which could reinforce bullish momentum.

另一方面，超過此級別的交易意味著大多數短期持有人都在獲利，這可能會增強看漲的勢頭。

Glassnode’s report includes a chart illustrating this trend.

GlassNode的報告包括一個說明這一趨勢的圖表。

As seen below, whenever BTC reached a new all-time high (ATH), followed by a correction, it tended to touch the lower band of the STH cost basis model.

如下所示，每當BTC達到新的歷史高（ATH）時，隨後進行了校正，它傾向於接觸STH成本基礎模型的下部頻段。

The chart further shows that historical BTC downtrends have typically extended to about -1 standard deviation below the STH cost basis.

該圖進一步表明，歷史BTC下降趨勢通常將其擴展到低於STH成本基礎的約-1個標準偏差。

Applying this model to the current market cycle, BTC could decline to as low as $71,600, where the model’s lower band is positioned.

將該模型應用於當前市場週期，BTC可能會下降到71,600美元，而該模型的下頻帶位於位置。

Crypto Market Close To ‘Decisive Moment’

加密市場接近“決定性時刻”

The report notes that the crypto market is currently witnessing an accumulation phase which mirrors that of May 2021.

該報告指出，加密貨幣市場目前正在目睹一個累積階段，該階段反映了2021年5月。

Although new investors aggressively accumulated BTC in April 2024, the magnitude of the STH supply uptrend in the current cycle aligns more structurally with May 2021 rather than 2024.

儘管新投資者在2024年4月積極積累了BTC，但當前週期中STH供應上升趨勢的幅度與2021年5月而不是2024年的結構更加一致。

As a result, the market is approaching a decisive moment, characterized by sharp price action in either direction.

結果，市場正在接近決定性的時刻，其特徵是在任一方向上尖銳的價格行動。

The report explains:

報告解釋說：

“If demand remains strong, Bitcoin could establish a new range above ATHs. However, a lack of sustained buy pressure could lead to a deeper distribution-driven correction, similar to prior post-ATH phases. This would likely be driven by panic amongst recent buyers who see their recently acquired coins move from being in profit to holding an unrealized loss.”

“如果需求仍然強勁，比特幣可以建立高於ATHS的新範圍。但是，缺乏持續的買入壓力可能會導致更深的分佈驅動校正，類似於先前的後階段。最近的買家中，這很可能會受到恐慌的驅動，這些買家看到他們最近獲得的硬幣從盈利轉變為持有未實現的損失。”

While downside risks remain, BTC bulls can rejoice as the US dollar’s expected decline is likely to benefit the flagship cryptocurrency.

儘管仍然存在下行風險，但由於美元的預期下降可能會使旗艦加密貨幣受益，但BTC公牛可能會為此感到高興。

Similarly, sentiment around BTC is starting to reignite following the slump in memecoin frenzy. At press time, BTC trades at $97,100, up 1.2% in the past 24 hours.

同樣，在Memecoin Frenzy的低迷之後，BTC周圍的情緒開始重新點燃。發稿時，BTC的交易價格為97,100美元，在過去24小時內增長了1.2％。