比特币减半后突破障碍：分析师预测六位数的飙升

分析师查尔斯·爱德华兹 (Charles Edwards) 预测，比特币近期减半后可能会出现三种情况：价格大幅上涨、约 15% 的矿工退出或交易费用持续上涨。尽管目前的交易水平存在折扣，Edwards 认为这些结果的结合是有可能的，包括比特币的价格上涨至 100,000 美元以上。这一预测与前一次减半所设定的历史先例一致，正如 Michael Saylor 指出的那样，比特币的价值在前一次减半中增长了 800%。

Bitcoin Enters Uncharted Territory Post Halving: Analyst Predicts Surge to Six Figures

减半后比特币进入未知领域：分析师预测将飙升至六位数

In the wake of the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event, analyst Charles Edwards, founder of the Capriole Investment fund, has outlined three potential trajectories for the world's leading cryptocurrency.

在备受期待的比特币减半事件之后，Capriole 投资基金创始人分析师查尔斯·爱德华兹 (Charles Edwards) 概述了全球领先加密货币的三种潜在发展轨迹。

Surge in Bitcoin Miner Price

比特币矿机价格飙升

Edwards, via Twitter, revealed that Bitcoin's electrical costs had spiked to a staggering $77,400 following the halving on Saturday. This figure represents the raw electricity expenses incurred by Bitcoin miners to mint new BTC.

Edwards 通过 Twitter 透露，周六减半后，比特币的电力成本已飙升至惊人的 77,400 美元。这个数字代表了比特币矿工铸造新比特币所产生的原始电力费用。

However, Edwards also noted that the overall Bitcoin miner price had soared to a record-breaking $244,000, attributed to a combination of block rewards and fees associated with each Bitcoin mined. Notably, transaction fees have escalated to over $230, marking a significant four-fold increase compared to the previous peak of $68 set in 2021.

然而，Edwards 还指出，由于与开采的每个比特币相关的区块奖励和费用，比特币矿机的整体价格已飙升至破纪录的 244,000 美元。值得注意的是，交易费用已升至 230 美元以上，与 2021 年创下的 68 美元峰值相比大幅增长了四倍。

Three Potential Scenarios

三种可能的情况

Edwards proposes three potential scenarios for Bitcoin's future trajectory:

爱德华兹提出了比特币未来轨迹的三种潜在情景：

1. Price Surge: Bitcoin's price could experience a significant surge.
2. Miner Exodus: Approximately 15% of Bitcoin miners may discontinue operations due to increased production costs.
3. Sustained High Transaction Fees: Transaction fees could remain elevated, indicating sustained network usage.

Edwards anticipates a combination of these scenarios, ultimately predicting a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, stating that "Bitcoin's days under $100K are numbered."

价格飙升：比特币的价格可能会大幅上涨。矿工出走：由于生产成本增加，大约 15% 的比特币矿工可能会停止运营。交易费用持续居高不下：交易费用可能会保持在高位，表明网络使用持续。Edwards 预计，这些情景最终预测了比特币的看涨前景，并指出“比特币低于 10 万美元的日子已经屈指可数了”。

Michael Saylor's Bitcoin Price Forecast

Michael Saylor 的比特币价格预测

MicroStrategy founder and prominent Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor echoed Edwards' sentiment, harking back to the previous halving, when Bitcoin's price soared 800% from $8,618 to its current peak.

MicroStrategy 创始人兼著名比特币倡导者 Michael Saylor 呼应了 Edwards 的观点，让人回想起之前的减半，当时比特币的价格从 8,618 美元飙升 800% 至目前的峰值。

Saylor's remarks hint at similar growth expectations, with the price potentially reaching approximately $528,300 based on current market conditions.

Saylor 的言论暗示了类似的增长预期，根据当前市场状况，价格可能达到约 528,300 美元。

Halving's Impact on Bitcoin's Value

减半对比特币价值的影响

Influencer Samson Mow emphasizes that Bitcoin halvings induce "quantitative hardening," a reduction in supply that increases scarcity and drives up price.

影响者 Samson Mow 强调，比特币减半会导致“定量硬化”，即供应减少，从而增加稀缺性并推高价格。

Market Outlook

市场展望

As the Bitcoin market navigates post-halving dynamics, analysts remain optimistic about its long-term potential. Edwards' scenarios and Saylor's historical comparison provide a framework for understanding Bitcoin's potential trajectory.

随着比特币市场在减半后的动态发展，分析师对其长期潜力仍持乐观态度。爱德华兹的情景和塞勒的历史比较为理解比特币的潜在轨迹提供了一个框架。

Investors should monitor the evolving market conditions and consider expert insights when making investment decisions. While Bitcoin's price path is inherently uncertain, the halving event has undoubtedly introduced a transformative element into the market, with the potential to shape Bitcoin's future valuation.

投资者在做出投资决策时应监控不断变化的市场状况并考虑专家的见解。虽然比特币的价格走势本质上是不确定的，但减半事件无疑给市场带来了变革性的元素，有可能影响比特币的未来估值。