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最大的加密货币的价格目前正在重新测试其“牛市支撑带”趋势指标,该指标的价格经常从回调中反弹
Bitcoin’s (BTC) modest rebound from the geopolitical turmoil-induced sell-off was arrested at $62,400 during the Wednesday U.S. session, tumbling back below $61,000 in the later hours.
周三美国时段,比特币 (BTC) 从地缘政治动荡引发的抛售中小幅反弹,止于 62,400 美元,随后跌至 61,000 美元以下。
BTC recently changed hands at $60,200, down 3% over the past 24 hours, while the broad crypto market benchmark CoinDesk 20 index was 3.8% lower during the same period. Altcoins fared worse, with ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), Cardano (ADA), Chainlink (LINK) and Near (NEAR) declining 5%-7% during the day.
BTC 最近以 60,200 美元换手,在过去 24 小时内下跌 3%,而同期广泛的加密货币市场基准 CoinDesk 20 指数下跌 3.8%。山寨币表现更差,以太币(ETH)、瑞波币(XRP)、卡尔达诺(ADA)、Chainlink(LINK)和近币(NEAR)当天下跌 5%-7%。
U.S. stock indexes remained mostly flat after yesterday’s losses on rising conflict between Israel and Iran. Gold pared some of its gains while oil retraced to $70 from its intraday top at $72, perhaps a sign of easing investor concerns over further military escalation.
继昨天因以色列和伊朗之间冲突加剧而下跌后,美国股指基本持平。黄金回吐了部分涨幅,而油价则从盘中最高点 72 美元回落至 70 美元,这或许是投资者对军事进一步升级的担忧有所缓解的迹象。
The Japanese yen tumbled 1.8% against the U.S. dollar on incoming prime minister Shigeru Ishiba ruling out further interest rate hikes in the near term, saying that the country’s economy isn’t ready yet for more restrictive monetary policy. Keeping central bank policy loose would support risk assets, as the Bank of Japan’s surprise rate hike in August triggered a broad-scale market crash as traders were forced to unwind their positions funded by cheap yen-based loans.
即将上任的首相石破茂排除了短期内进一步加息的可能性,称该国经济尚未准备好采取更严格的货币政策,日元兑美元汇率下跌1.8%。保持央行政策宽松将支撑风险资产,因为日本央行八月份的意外加息引发了大范围的市场崩盘,交易员被迫平仓以廉价日元贷款为资金的头寸。
Bitcoin’s key test
比特币的关键测试
Crypto’s dismal start of October, which was widely expected to be a bullish month, has left crypto traders worried about further downside as the euphoria from bitcoin’s swift run to $66,000 from $52,000 last month quickly faded.
加密货币在 10 月份的惨淡开局被普遍认为是一个牛市月份,这让加密货币交易者担心进一步下跌,因为比特币从上个月的 52,000 美元迅速上涨到 66,000 美元的兴奋情绪很快消退。
Whether prices rebound or tumble lower may depend on bitcoin’s ongoing retest of its "Bull Market Support Band," a key trend indicator defined by the asset's 20-week simple moving average (SMA) and a 21-week exponential moving average (EMA). The band often served as support for prices during previous uptrends, and currently ranges between $61,100 and $62,900. A bounce from the band would reinvigorate the uptrend from the September lows to target, but a decisive break below could undo all the recovery, with many more weeks chopping below $60,000.
价格是反弹还是暴跌可能取决于比特币对其“牛市支撑带”的持续重新测试,这是由该资产的 20 周简单移动平均线 (SMA) 和 21 周指数移动平均线 (EMA) 定义的关键趋势指标。该区间在之前的上涨趋势中经常作为价格的支撑,目前区间为 61,100 美元至 62,900 美元。该区间的反弹将重振9月低点至目标位的上行趋势,但果断跌破该区间可能会毁掉所有复苏,并可能在未来数周内跌破 60,000 美元。
Analysts at crypto hedge fund QCP said that bitcoin could tumble to as low as $55,000 if the Middle East conflict escalates further and investors move risk-off, but the $60,000 level acted as solid support so far.
加密货币对冲基金 QCP 的分析师表示,如果中东冲突进一步升级且投资者规避风险,比特币可能会跌至 55,000 美元的低位,但迄今为止 60,000 美元的水平是坚实的支撑。
"Middle East geopolitics will steal the limelight for now, but the shallow sell-off suggests that the market remains well bid for risk assets," QCP said in a Tuesday update.
QCP 在周二的更新中表示:“中东地缘政治目前将成为众人瞩目的焦点,但抛售幅度较小表明市场对风险资产的竞价仍然不错。”
"This minor setback shouldn't distract from the bigger picture," QCP analysts added. "Asset prices are expected to remain supported heading into 2025, as both the largest (the Federal Reserve) and third-largest (People's Bank of China) central banks in the world have started their cutting cycles in earnest."
QCP 分析师补充道:“这一小小的挫折不应分散我们对大局的注意力。” “预计到 2025 年,资产价格将继续受到支撑,因为全球最大的央行(美联储)和第三大央行(中国人民银行)都已正式开始降息周期。”
Blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant noted signs of BTC demand recovering from the summer slump, driven by U.S.-listed spot ETFs.
区块链分析公司 CryptoQuant 指出,在美国上市现货 ETF 的推动下,比特币需求有从夏季低迷中复苏的迹象。
If demand picks up and favorable year-end seasonality materializes, BTC could target the $85,000-$100,000 range in the last quarter, according to CryptoQuant.
根据 CryptoQuant 的数据,如果需求回升并且有利的年终季节性成为现实,比特币可能会在上个季度达到 85,000 美元至 100,000 美元的区间。
"These levels align with the upper range of the on-chain trader realized price bands, where short-term traders often take profits following price rallies," CryptoQuant analysts said.
CryptoQuant 分析师表示:“这些水平与链上交易者实现的价格区间的上限一致,短期交易者通常会在价格上涨后获利了结。”
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