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最大的加密貨幣的價格目前正在重新測試其「牛市支撐帶」趨勢指標,該指標的價格經常從回調中反彈
Bitcoin’s (BTC) modest rebound from the geopolitical turmoil-induced sell-off was arrested at $62,400 during the Wednesday U.S. session, tumbling back below $61,000 in the later hours.
週三美國時段,比特幣 (BTC) 從地緣政治動盪引發的拋售中小幅反彈,止於 62,400 美元,隨後跌至 61,000 美元以下。
BTC recently changed hands at $60,200, down 3% over the past 24 hours, while the broad crypto market benchmark CoinDesk 20 index was 3.8% lower during the same period. Altcoins fared worse, with ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), Cardano (ADA), Chainlink (LINK) and Near (NEAR) declining 5%-7% during the day.
BTC 最近以 60,200 美元換手,在過去 24 小時內下跌 3%,而同期廣泛的加密貨幣市場基準 CoinDesk 20 指數下跌 3.8%。山寨幣表現較差,以太幣(ETH)、瑞波幣(XRP)、卡爾達諾(ADA)、Chainlink(LINK)和近幣(NEAR)當天下跌 5%-7%。
U.S. stock indexes remained mostly flat after yesterday’s losses on rising conflict between Israel and Iran. Gold pared some of its gains while oil retraced to $70 from its intraday top at $72, perhaps a sign of easing investor concerns over further military escalation.
繼昨天因以色列和伊朗之間衝突加劇而下跌後,美國股指基本持平。黃金回吐了部分漲幅,而油價則從盤中高點 72 美元回落至 70 美元,這或許是投資者對軍事進一步升級的擔憂有所緩解的跡象。
The Japanese yen tumbled 1.8% against the U.S. dollar on incoming prime minister Shigeru Ishiba ruling out further interest rate hikes in the near term, saying that the country’s economy isn’t ready yet for more restrictive monetary policy. Keeping central bank policy loose would support risk assets, as the Bank of Japan’s surprise rate hike in August triggered a broad-scale market crash as traders were forced to unwind their positions funded by cheap yen-based loans.
即將上任的首相石破茂排除了短期內進一步升息的可能性,稱該國經濟尚未準備好採取更嚴格的貨幣政策,日圓兌美元匯率下跌1.8%。保持央行政策寬鬆將支撐風險資產,因為日本央行八月份的意外加息引發了大範圍的市場崩盤,交易員被迫平倉以廉價日元貸款為資金的頭寸。
Bitcoin’s key test
比特幣的關鍵測試
Crypto’s dismal start of October, which was widely expected to be a bullish month, has left crypto traders worried about further downside as the euphoria from bitcoin’s swift run to $66,000 from $52,000 last month quickly faded.
加密貨幣在 10 月的慘淡開局被普遍認為是一個牛市月份,這讓加密貨幣交易者擔心進一步下跌,因為比特幣從上個月的 52,000 美元迅速上漲到 66,000 美元的興奮情緒很快消退。
Whether prices rebound or tumble lower may depend on bitcoin’s ongoing retest of its "Bull Market Support Band," a key trend indicator defined by the asset's 20-week simple moving average (SMA) and a 21-week exponential moving average (EMA). The band often served as support for prices during previous uptrends, and currently ranges between $61,100 and $62,900. A bounce from the band would reinvigorate the uptrend from the September lows to target, but a decisive break below could undo all the recovery, with many more weeks chopping below $60,000.
價格是反彈還是暴跌可能取決於比特幣對其「牛市支撐帶」的持續重新測試,這是由該資產的20 週簡單移動平均線(SMA) 和21 週指數移動平均線(EMA) 定義的關鍵趨勢指標。該區間在先前的上漲趨勢中經常充當價格的支撐,目前區間在 61,100 美元至 62,900 美元之間。該區間的反彈將重振9月低點至目標位的上行趨勢,但果斷跌破該區間可能會毀掉所有復甦,並可能在未來幾週內跌破 6 萬美元。
Analysts at crypto hedge fund QCP said that bitcoin could tumble to as low as $55,000 if the Middle East conflict escalates further and investors move risk-off, but the $60,000 level acted as solid support so far.
加密貨幣對沖基金 QCP 的分析師表示,如果中東衝突進一步升級且投資者規避風險,比特幣可能會跌至 55,000 美元的低位,但迄今為止 60,000 美元的水平是堅實的支撐。
"Middle East geopolitics will steal the limelight for now, but the shallow sell-off suggests that the market remains well bid for risk assets," QCP said in a Tuesday update.
QCP 在周二的更新中表示:“中東地緣政治目前將成為眾人矚目的焦點,但拋售幅度較小表明市場對風險資產的競價仍然不錯。”
"This minor setback shouldn't distract from the bigger picture," QCP analysts added. "Asset prices are expected to remain supported heading into 2025, as both the largest (the Federal Reserve) and third-largest (People's Bank of China) central banks in the world have started their cutting cycles in earnest."
QCP 分析師補充道:“這一小小的挫折不應該分散我們對大局的注意力。” 「預計到 2025 年,資產價格將繼續受到支撐,因為全球最大的央行(美聯儲)和第三大央行(中國人民銀行)都已正式開始降息週期。”
Blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant noted signs of BTC demand recovering from the summer slump, driven by U.S.-listed spot ETFs.
區塊鏈分析公司 CryptoQuant 指出,在美國上市現貨 ETF 的推動下,比特幣需求有從夏季低迷中復甦的跡象。
If demand picks up and favorable year-end seasonality materializes, BTC could target the $85,000-$100,000 range in the last quarter, according to CryptoQuant.
根據 CryptoQuant 的數據,如果需求回升並且有利的年終季節性成為現實,比特幣可能會在上個季度達到 85,000 美元至 100,000 美元的區間。
"These levels align with the upper range of the on-chain trader realized price bands, where short-term traders often take profits following price rallies," CryptoQuant analysts said.
CryptoQuant 分析師表示:“這些水平與鏈上交易者實現的價格區間的上限一致,短期交易者通常會在價格上漲後獲利了結。”
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