比特币的看跌暴跌：预期减半

目前，比特币的接受者买卖比率为0.95，反映出市场抛压的增加。这种趋势随着减半事件的临近而出现，导致市场参与者的负面情绪。

Bitcoin's Taker Buy-Sell Ratio Plunges, Signaling Heightened Bearish Pressure Amid Halving Approach

比特币的接受者买卖比率暴跌，表明减半临近期间看跌压力加剧

As the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event rapidly approaches, market sentiment has taken a sharp turn towards pessimism, with the coin's taker buy-sell ratio dipping below its equilibrium point and returning a negative value. This metric, which measures the ratio between Bitcoin's buy volume and sell volume in its Futures market, is now hovering around 0.95, indicating increased selling pressure.

随着备受期待的比特币减半事件迅速临近，市场情绪急剧转向悲观，比特币的接受者买卖比率跌破平衡点并返回负值。该指标衡量比特币期货市场买入量与卖出量之间的比率，目前徘徊在 0.95 左右，表明抛售压力增加。

Bears Emerge, Dampening Post-Halving Rally Hopes

空头出现，削弱了减半后的反弹希望

An analysis of Bitcoin's market dynamics reveals a surge in bearish sentiment over the past 24 hours. With the halving event expected to occur between late trading hours on April 19 and early April 20, market participants appear to be losing faith in a significant post-halving rally. The coin's funding rate across major crypto exchanges has plunged into negative territory, suggesting a substantial increase in the number of traders opening short positions. In fact, this is only the second time since the market's resurgence in October 2023 that Bitcoin has registered a negative funding rate.

对比特币市场动态的分析显示，过去 24 小时内看跌情绪激增。由于减半事件预计将在 4 月 19 日晚间交易时段至 4 月 20 日月初之间发生，市场参与者似乎对减半后的大幅反弹失去了信心。主要加密货币交易所的代币融资利率已跌至负值，这表明开立空头头寸的交易者数量大幅增加。事实上，这只是自 2023 年 10 月市场复苏以来比特币第二次出现负资金利率。

Futures Market Activity Intensifies, Short Positions Dominate

期货市场活动加剧，空头头寸占主导地位

Despite the negative sentiment, Bitcoin's Futures market has witnessed an upsurge in trading volume and a corresponding rise in open interest. As of this writing, BTC's Futures open interest has soared to $31.2 billion, marking a 1% increase in the past 24 hours. While this growth indicates an influx of open contracts, the negative funding rate strongly suggests that there are more traders betting against Bitcoin's price as the halving event draws closer.

尽管存在负面情绪，但比特币期货市场的交易量激增，未平仓合约也相应增加。截至撰写本文时，BTC 期货未平仓合约已飙升至 312 亿美元，在过去 24 小时内增加了 1%。虽然这种增长表明未平仓合约大量涌入，但负融资率强烈表明，随着减半事件的临近，有更多交易者做空比特币价格。

Technical Indicators Paint a Bearish Picture

技术指标描绘出看跌的景象

Bitcoin's performance on the 1-day chart corroborates the prevalence of bearish sentiment in the market. The coin's Awesome Oscillator, which gauges market momentum, is projecting downward-facing red histogram bars, a trend that has persisted since April 12. These red bars signify a surge in selling pressure and are interpreted as a bearish sign.

比特币在 1 天图表上的表现证实了市场上普遍存在的看跌情绪。该代币的“真棒震荡指标”用于衡量市场势头，正在预测向下的红色柱状图，这一趋势自 4 月 12 日以来一直持续。这些红色柱状图表示抛售压力激增，被解读为看跌信号。

Similarly, the Elder-Ray Index has consistently returned negative values since April 12. This indicator measures the balance of power between buyers and sellers in the market, and when its value falls below zero, it indicates that bears hold sway.

同样，Elder-Ray指数自4月12日以来一直返回负值。该指标衡量市场上买家和卖家之间的力量平衡，当其值低于零时，表明空头占据主导地位。

Halving Hype Priced In, Rally Expectations May Be Misplaced

炒作减半，反弹预期可能错位

The recent market behavior suggests that the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event may already be priced into the charts. Many investors had speculated that the halving would trigger a dramatic surge in Bitcoin's value, but the current bearish climate casts doubt on these expectations. It is becoming increasingly evident that the supposedly bullish impact of the halving may have already been factored into the coin's market valuation.

最近的市场行为表明，备受期待的比特币减半事件可能已经被计入图表中。许多投资者曾猜测减半将引发比特币价值的大幅飙升，但当前的看跌气氛使人们对这些预期产生了怀疑。越来越明显的是，减半的看涨影响可能已经计入了代币的市场估值中。

In conclusion, Bitcoin's taker buy-sell ratio, trading activity, funding rate, and technical indicators all point to a significant shift towards bearish sentiment as the halving event nears. While the halving has long been touted as a bullish catalyst, the current market dynamics suggest that the potential for a significant rally may be overstated. It remains to be seen whether the market will defy these bearish indicators and mount a sustained recovery following the halving, but for now, caution appears to be the watchword.

总而言之，随着减半事件的临近，比特币的接受者买卖比率、交易活动、资金费率和技术指标都表明，比特币的看跌情绪将发生重大转变。尽管减半长期以来一直被吹捧为看涨催化剂，但当前的市场动态表明，大幅反弹的潜力可能被夸大了。市场是否会克服这些看跌指标并在减半后持续复苏还有待观察，但目前，谨慎似乎是口号。