比特幣的看跌暴跌：預期減半

目前，比特幣的接受者買賣比率為0.95，反映出市場拋壓的增加。這種趨勢隨著減半事件的臨近而出現，導致市場參與者的負面情緒。

Bitcoin's Taker Buy-Sell Ratio Plunges, Signaling Heightened Bearish Pressure Amid Halving Approach

比特幣的接受者買賣比率暴跌，顯示減半臨近期間看跌壓力加劇

As the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event rapidly approaches, market sentiment has taken a sharp turn towards pessimism, with the coin's taker buy-sell ratio dipping below its equilibrium point and returning a negative value. This metric, which measures the ratio between Bitcoin's buy volume and sell volume in its Futures market, is now hovering around 0.95, indicating increased selling pressure.

隨著備受期待的比特幣減半事件迅速臨近，市場情緒急劇轉向悲觀，比特幣的接受者買賣比率跌破平衡點並返回負值。該指標衡量比特幣期貨市場買入量與賣出量之間的比率，目前徘徊在 0.95 左右，顯示拋售壓力增加。

Bears Emerge, Dampening Post-Halving Rally Hopes

空頭出現，削弱了減半後的反彈希望

An analysis of Bitcoin's market dynamics reveals a surge in bearish sentiment over the past 24 hours. With the halving event expected to occur between late trading hours on April 19 and early April 20, market participants appear to be losing faith in a significant post-halving rally. The coin's funding rate across major crypto exchanges has plunged into negative territory, suggesting a substantial increase in the number of traders opening short positions. In fact, this is only the second time since the market's resurgence in October 2023 that Bitcoin has registered a negative funding rate.

比特幣市場動態的分析顯示，過去 24 小時內看跌情緒激增。由於減半事件預計將在 4 月 19 日晚間交易時段至 4 月 20 日月初之間發生，市場參與者似乎對減半後的大幅反彈失去了信心。主要加密貨幣交易所的代幣融資利率已跌至負值，這表明開立空頭部位的交易者數量大幅增加。事實上，這只是自 2023 年 10 月市場復甦以來比特幣第二次出現負資金利率。

Futures Market Activity Intensifies, Short Positions Dominate

期貨市場活動加劇，空頭部位占主導地位

Despite the negative sentiment, Bitcoin's Futures market has witnessed an upsurge in trading volume and a corresponding rise in open interest. As of this writing, BTC's Futures open interest has soared to $31.2 billion, marking a 1% increase in the past 24 hours. While this growth indicates an influx of open contracts, the negative funding rate strongly suggests that there are more traders betting against Bitcoin's price as the halving event draws closer.

儘管有負面情緒，但比特幣期貨市場的交易量激增，未平倉合約也相應增加。截至撰寫本文時，BTC 期貨未平倉合約已飆升至 312 億美元，在過去 24 小時內增加了 1%。雖然這種增長表明未平倉合約大量湧入，但負融資率強烈表明，隨著減半事件的臨近，有更多交易者做空比特幣價格。

Technical Indicators Paint a Bearish Picture

Bitcoin's performance on the 1-day chart corroborates the prevalence of bearish sentiment in the market. The coin's Awesome Oscillator, which gauges market momentum, is projecting downward-facing red histogram bars, a trend that has persisted since April 12. These red bars signify a surge in selling pressure and are interpreted as a bearish sign.

Similarly, the Elder-Ray Index has consistently returned negative values since April 12. This indicator measures the balance of power between buyers and sellers in the market, and when its value falls below zero, it indicates that bears hold sway.

Halving Hype Priced In, Rally Expectations May Be Misplaced

炒作減半，反彈預期可能錯位

The recent market behavior suggests that the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event may already be priced into the charts. Many investors had speculated that the halving would trigger a dramatic surge in Bitcoin's value, but the current bearish climate casts doubt on these expectations. It is becoming increasingly evident that the supposedly bullish impact of the halving may have already been factored into the coin's market valuation.

最近的市場行為表明，備受期待的比特幣減半事件可能已經被計入圖表中。許多投資者曾猜測減半將引發比特幣價值的大幅飆升，但當前的看跌氣氛使人們對這些預期產生了懷疑。越來越明顯的是，減半的看漲影響可能已經計入了代幣的市場估值中。

In conclusion, Bitcoin's taker buy-sell ratio, trading activity, funding rate, and technical indicators all point to a significant shift towards bearish sentiment as the halving event nears. While the halving has long been touted as a bullish catalyst, the current market dynamics suggest that the potential for a significant rally may be overstated. It remains to be seen whether the market will defy these bearish indicators and mount a sustained recovery following the halving, but for now, caution appears to be the watchword.

總而言之，隨著減半事件的臨近，比特幣的接受者買賣比率、交易活動、資金費率和技術指標都表明，比特幣的看跌情緒將發生重大轉變。儘管減半長期以來一直被吹捧為看漲催化劑，但當前的市場動態表明，大幅反彈的潛力可能被誇大了。市場是否會克服這些看跌指標並在減半後持續復甦還有待觀察，但目前，謹慎似乎是口號。