比特币的看跌视野：潜在修正和积累窗口即将到来

比特币短期内仍面临看跌压力，暗示可能出现下行修正。每周不平衡从 59,111 美元到 53,120 美元提供了理想的积累区域。链上数据支持了这一观点，自 2023 年 12 月下旬以来，短期持有者已积累了 112 万比特币。然而，如果反弹至 4 月烛台开盘价 71,378 美元上方，则看跌前景可能会失效，并创下历史新高。

Bitcoin's Short-Term Bearish Outlook: Potential Correction and Accumulation Zone

比特币的短期看跌前景：潜在的修正和积累区域

Introduction

介绍

Bitcoin's (BTC) price action in recent weeks has exhibited a perplexing trajectory, characterized by tepid investor interest and a lingering expectation of a downward correction. While this uncertainty persists, on-chain metrics provide valuable insights into the underlying market dynamics, suggesting a potential short-term correction and an opportune accumulation zone for long-term investors.

最近几周，比特币（BTC）的价格走势呈现出令人困惑的轨迹，其特点是投资者兴趣不温不火，而且对下行修正的预期挥之不去。尽管这种不确定性仍然存在，但链上指标为潜在的市场动态提供了宝贵的见解，表明潜在的短期调整和长期投资者的适当积累区域。

Bearish Weekly Outlook

每周看跌展望

On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin's Momentum Reversal Indicator (MRI) has issued a sell signal, indicative of a decline in price momentum. This signal manifests as a red 'one' down arrow above the weekly candlestick, portending a potential one-to-four-candlestick downturn. Furthermore, declining daily exchange volumes underscore the weakening momentum. These bearish signals, coupled with the strengthening US Dollar and anticipation of a potential interest rate hike in June, further support the likelihood of a correction.

在每周时间范围内，比特币的动量反转指标（MRI）发出了卖出信号，表明价格动量下降。该信号表现为每周烛台上方的红色“一”向下箭头，预示着潜在的一到四烛台下跌。此外，每日交易量的下降凸显了势头的减弱。这些看跌信号，加上美元走强以及六月份可能加息的预期，进一步支持了回调的可能性。

Accumulation Zone

累积区

In the event of a correction, the ideal accumulation zone for sidelined buyers lies within the weekly imbalance, ranging from $59,111 to $53,120. This zone represents a historical price equilibrium where buyers and sellers have previously balanced their orders, creating a potential support level.

如果出现调整，观望买家的理想吸筹区域位于每周失衡范围内，范围为 59,111 美元至 53,120 美元。该区域代表历史价格均衡，买家和卖家之前已经平衡了订单，从而形成了潜在的支撑位。

Daily Chart Technicalities

每日图表技术细节

Bitcoin's daily chart exhibits a lack of clear directional bias, with the price oscillating between the current all-time high (ATH) of $69,138 and a support level of $60,761. The inability to decisively break either resistance or support suggests a period of consolidation.

比特币的日线图缺乏明确的方向偏差，价格在当前历史高点 (ATH) 69,138 美元和支撑位 60,761 美元之间波动。无法果断地突破阻力位或支撑位意味着一段时期的盘整。

Historical Data and Seasonality

历史数据和季节性

A historical analysis of Bitcoin's price performance reveals a consistent pattern of strong returns in the second quarter, with an average return of 30% compared to the first quarter's 11.41%. Notably, April has historically yielded the second-highest monthly returns in the past decade.

对比特币价格表现的历史分析显示，第二季度呈现出一致的强劲回报模式，平均回报率为 30%，而第一季度的平均回报率为 11.41%。值得注意的是，四月份的月回报率历来是过去十年中第二高的。

On-Chain Metrics

链上指标

Glassnode data indicates a significant increase in Bitcoin holdings by short-term holders since late December 2023. This accumulation by short-term holders, who are typically known for their volatility, raises concerns about potential sell-offs that could trigger a sharp correction.

Glassnode 数据显示，自 2023 年 12 月下旬以来，短期持有者持有的比特币大幅增加。通常以波动性着称的短期持有者的比特币持有量引发了人们对潜在抛售的担忧，从而可能引发大幅回调。

Invalidation and Future Trajectory

无效和未来轨迹

The correction thesis remains valid based on the prevailing bearish signals. However, an invalidation of this outlook could occur if Bitcoin's price surpasses the April monthly candlestick open of $71,378. Such a development would reinforce the notion of sustained bullish momentum.

基于普遍的看跌信号，修正论点仍然有效。然而，如果比特币价格超过 4 月份月度烛台开盘价 71,378 美元，则这一前景可能会失效。这样的发展将强化持续看涨势头的概念。

Conclusion

结论

In summary, Bitcoin's short-term outlook remains bearish, suggesting a potential correction. The weekly imbalance provides an ideal accumulation zone for long-term investors. While a correction is anticipated, an invalidation of this thesis could lead to a significant rally and a potential new ATH. Investors should closely monitor market developments and exercise prudent risk management strategies.

总而言之，比特币的短期前景仍然看跌，表明可能出现回调。每周的不平衡为长期投资者提供了理想的积累区域。虽然预计会出现修正，但这一论点的无效可能会导致大幅反弹和潜在的新 ATH。投资者应密切关注市场动态，采取审慎的风险管理策略。