比特幣的看跌視野：潛在修正與累積窗口即將到來

比特幣短期內仍面臨看跌壓力，暗示可能出現下檔修正。每週不平衡從 59,111 美元到 53,120 美元提供了理想的累積區域。鏈上數據支持了這一觀點，自2023 年12 月下旬以來，短期持有者已積累了112 萬比特幣。然而，如果反彈至4 月燭台開盤價71,378 美元上方，則看跌前景可能會失效，並創下歷史新高。

Bitcoin's Short-Term Bearish Outlook: Potential Correction and Accumulation Zone

比特幣的短期看跌前景：潛在的修正與累積區域

Introduction

介紹

Bitcoin's (BTC) price action in recent weeks has exhibited a perplexing trajectory, characterized by tepid investor interest and a lingering expectation of a downward correction. While this uncertainty persists, on-chain metrics provide valuable insights into the underlying market dynamics, suggesting a potential short-term correction and an opportune accumulation zone for long-term investors.

最近幾週，比特幣（BTC）的價格走勢呈現出令人困惑的軌跡，其特點是投資者興趣不溫不火，而且對下行修正的預期揮之不去。儘管這種不確定性仍然存在，但鏈上指標為潛在的市場動態提供了寶貴的見解，表明潛在的短期調整和長期投資者的適當累積區域。

Bearish Weekly Outlook

每週看跌展望

On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin's Momentum Reversal Indicator (MRI) has issued a sell signal, indicative of a decline in price momentum. This signal manifests as a red 'one' down arrow above the weekly candlestick, portending a potential one-to-four-candlestick downturn. Furthermore, declining daily exchange volumes underscore the weakening momentum. These bearish signals, coupled with the strengthening US Dollar and anticipation of a potential interest rate hike in June, further support the likelihood of a correction.

在每週時間範圍內，比特幣的動量反轉指標（MRI）發出了賣出訊號，顯示價格動量下降。該訊號表現為每週燭台上方的紅色「一」向下箭頭，預示著潛在的一到四燭台下跌。此外，每日交易量的下降凸顯了勢頭的減弱。這些看跌訊號，加上美元走強以及六月可能升息的預期，進一步支持了回檔的可能性。

Accumulation Zone

累積區

In the event of a correction, the ideal accumulation zone for sidelined buyers lies within the weekly imbalance, ranging from $59,111 to $53,120. This zone represents a historical price equilibrium where buyers and sellers have previously balanced their orders, creating a potential support level.

如果出現調整，觀望買家的理想吸籌區域位於每週失衡範圍內，範圍為 59,111 美元至 53,120 美元。該區域代表歷史價格均衡，買家和賣家之前已經平衡了訂單，從而形成了潛在的支撐位。

Daily Chart Technicalities

每日圖表技術細節

Bitcoin's daily chart exhibits a lack of clear directional bias, with the price oscillating between the current all-time high (ATH) of $69,138 and a support level of $60,761. The inability to decisively break either resistance or support suggests a period of consolidation.

比特幣的日線圖缺乏明確的方向偏差，價格在當前歷史高點 (ATH) 69,138 美元和支撐位 60,761 美元之間波動。無法果斷地突破阻力位或支撐位意味著一段時期的盤整。

Historical Data and Seasonality

歷史數據和季節性

A historical analysis of Bitcoin's price performance reveals a consistent pattern of strong returns in the second quarter, with an average return of 30% compared to the first quarter's 11.41%. Notably, April has historically yielded the second-highest monthly returns in the past decade.

對比特幣價格表現的歷史分析顯示，第二季呈現一致的強勁回報模式，平均回報率為 30%，而第一季的平均回報率為 11.41%。值得注意的是，四月份的月回報率歷來是過去十年中第二高的。

On-Chain Metrics

鏈上指標

Glassnode data indicates a significant increase in Bitcoin holdings by short-term holders since late December 2023. This accumulation by short-term holders, who are typically known for their volatility, raises concerns about potential sell-offs that could trigger a sharp correction.

Glassnode 數據顯示，自2023 年12 月下旬以來，短期持有者持有的比特幣大幅增加。通常以波動性著稱的短期持有者的比特幣持有量引發了人們對潛在拋售的擔憂，從而可能引發大幅回調。

Invalidation and Future Trajectory

無效與未來軌跡

The correction thesis remains valid based on the prevailing bearish signals. However, an invalidation of this outlook could occur if Bitcoin's price surpasses the April monthly candlestick open of $71,378. Such a development would reinforce the notion of sustained bullish momentum.

基於普遍的看跌訊號，修正論點仍然有效。然而，如果比特幣價格超過 4 月月度燭台開盤價 71,378 美元，則這一前景可能會失效。這樣的發展將強化持續看漲動能的概念。

Conclusion

結論

In summary, Bitcoin's short-term outlook remains bearish, suggesting a potential correction. The weekly imbalance provides an ideal accumulation zone for long-term investors. While a correction is anticipated, an invalidation of this thesis could lead to a significant rally and a potential new ATH. Investors should closely monitor market developments and exercise prudent risk management strategies.

總而言之，比特幣的短期前景仍然看跌，顯示可能出現回檔。每週的不平衡為長期投資者提供了理想的累積區域。雖然預計會出現修正，但這一論點的無效可能會導致大幅反彈和潛在的新 ATH。投資人應密切注意市場動態，採取審慎的風險管理策略。