比特币：美国经济尚未解决的动态是否有助于或阻碍其作为替代性避风港的崛起？

从历史上看，由于某些美国考虑将其融入他们的储量，因此今天被视为投机性资产，如今正在目睹其地位的发展。

The American economy is facing a dynamic that could upset the established balances: demand for long-term Treasury bonds is weakening, questioning the strength of the dollar, and fueling new economic uncertainties.

美国经济面临的动态可能会破坏既定的余额：对长期债券的需求正在削弱，质疑美元的实力，并助长了新的经济不确定性。

While the Federal Reserve remains committed to a delicate monetary policy and inflation struggles to slow down, bitcoin finds itself at a strategic crossroads. Historically seen as a speculative asset, it is today witnessing its status evolve as certain U.S. states consider integrating it into their reserves. The central question then is: will bitcoin suffer from the effects of this uncertainty or benefit from it to assert itself as an alternative safe haven?

尽管美联储仍然致力于制定微妙的货币政策，而通货膨胀率则努力减速，但比特币发现自己处于战略性十字路口。从历史上看，由于某些美国考虑将其融入他们的储量，因此今天被视为投机性资产，如今正在目睹其地位的发展。那么中心的问题是：比特币会遭受这种不确定性的影响或从中受益的影响，以确保自己作为替代性避风港？

The correlation between the dollar and bitcoin: a game of fragile equilibria

美元与比特币之间的相关性：脆弱的平衡游戏

For several months now, bitcoin has been moving in correlation with the U.S. dollar index (DXY). The drop in the latter, reaching its lowest level in 70 days, coincided with a correction in the S&P 500 and increasing uncertainty in the bond markets. Thus, “Investors are beginning to question the viability of long-term financing of U.S. debt,” explains Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary.

几个月来，比特币一直与美元指数（DXY）相关。后者的下降在70天内达到了最低水平，同时进行了标准普尔500指数的纠正，并增加了债券市场的不确定性。因此，“投资者开始质疑美国债务长期融资的可行性，”美国财政部长斯科特·贝斯特（Scott Bessent）解释说。

Despite persistent criticism of Janet Yellen's debt management policy, the Trump administration maintains its cautious approach and for now avoids massive long-term debt issuance.

尽管对珍妮特·耶伦（Janet Yellen）的债务管理政策持续批评，但特朗普政府仍保持谨慎的态度，目前避免了大规模的长期债务发行。

In this context, bitcoin struggles to maintain its bullish momentum. After a period of strong growth between September 2024 and January 2025, it seems to be facing marked resistance. The weakness of the dollar does not immediately benefit crypto, as investors still hesitate to grant it a status of safe haven in the face of monetary and fiscal uncertainties.

在这种情况下，比特币努力保持其看涨的势头。在2024年9月至2025年1月之间的强劲增长之后，它似乎面临着明显的抵抗。美元的弱点并不能立即使加密货币受益，因为在货币和财政不确定性面前，投资者仍然不愿将其授予避风港的地位。

However, some analysts believe that this dynamic could evolve with the increasing introduction of bitcoin into the macroeconomic strategies of several U.S. states.

但是，一些分析人士认为，这种动态可以随着比特币越来越多地引入美国几个州的宏观经济策略而发展。

Is bitcoin on the verge of becoming a strategic reserve asset?

比特币即将成为战略储备资产的边缘？

As economic uncertainty drives investors to seek alternatives to traditional bonds, several U.S. states are beginning to modify their approach to bitcoin. The Montana Business and Labor Committee has adopted a bill aimed at including bitcoin and precious metals in state reserves.

随着经济不确定性促使投资者寻求替代传统债券的替代方案，美国几个州开始改变其比特币的方法。蒙大拿州商业和劳工委员会已通过一项法案，旨在在国家储备中包括比特币和贵金属。

An initiative followed by Utah, Arizona, Texas, and other states signals a profound change in the perception of this asset.

犹他州，亚利桑那州，德克萨斯州和其他州的一项倡议迹象表明，对该资产的看法发生了深刻的变化。

This evolution occurs within a troubled macroeconomic context. Moreover, some observers fear that the U.S. government may be compelled to adopt an expansionist fiscal policy to revive the economy, notably through direct payments to households. Such a decision could strengthen bitcoin’s appeal as protection against inflation, similar to gold.

这种进化发生在陷入困境的宏观经济环境中。此外，一些观察家担心美国政府可能会被迫采取扩张主义财政政策来恢复经济，特别是通过直接支付给家庭。这样的决定可以加强比特币的吸引力，以防止与黄金相似。

“Investors need to stop focusing solely on the dollar and start observing how states approach bitcoin as a reserve asset,” emphasizes Aleš Michl, Governor of the Czech National Bank.

捷克国家银行州长AlešMichl强调：“投资者需要停止仅关注美元并开始观察各州如何将比特币作为储备资产。”

If bitcoin is currently facing a period of uncertainty due to fluctuations in the bond market, underlying trends indicate a structural change in its institutional adoption. The gradual inclusion of bitcoin in state reserves and its proximity to precious metals mark a new step in its integration within the global economic system.

如果由于债券市场的波动，比特币目前面临不确定性时期，则基本趋势表明其机构采用的结构性变化。逐渐将比特币纳入国家储量及其靠近贵金属的程度标志着其在全球经济体系中的融合迈出了新的一步。

However, its evolution will also depend on the appetite of institutional investors, particularly through the capital flows into spot Bitcoin ETF, which have recorded net outflows of $125 million in recent days.

但是，它的演变还将取决于机构投资者的胃口，特别是通过资本流入现货比特币ETF的胃口，这些ETF最近几天记录了1.25亿美元的净流出。

Far from being a mere speculative alternative, bitcoin is increasingly positioning itself as a key indicator of global monetary tensions, a role it could fully assume if distrust of the dollar were to intensify.

比特币远非仅仅是投机性的替代方案，而是越来越多地将自己定位为全球货币紧张局势的关键指标，它可以完全假设是否不信任美元来加强。