Bitcoin: Will the American Economy's Unresolved Dynamics Help or Hinder Its Rise as an Alternative Safe Haven?

Historically seen as a speculative asset, it is today witnessing its status evolve as certain U.S. states consider integrating it into their reserves.

The American economy is facing a dynamic that could upset the established balances: demand for long-term Treasury bonds is weakening, questioning the strength of the dollar, and fueling new economic uncertainties.

While the Federal Reserve remains committed to a delicate monetary policy and inflation struggles to slow down, bitcoin finds itself at a strategic crossroads. Historically seen as a speculative asset, it is today witnessing its status evolve as certain U.S. states consider integrating it into their reserves. The central question then is: will bitcoin suffer from the effects of this uncertainty or benefit from it to assert itself as an alternative safe haven?

The correlation between the dollar and bitcoin: a game of fragile equilibria

For several months now, bitcoin has been moving in correlation with the U.S. dollar index (DXY). The drop in the latter, reaching its lowest level in 70 days, coincided with a correction in the S&P 500 and increasing uncertainty in the bond markets. Thus, “Investors are beginning to question the viability of long-term financing of U.S. debt,” explains Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary.

Despite persistent criticism of Janet Yellen's debt management policy, the Trump administration maintains its cautious approach and for now avoids massive long-term debt issuance.

In this context, bitcoin struggles to maintain its bullish momentum. After a period of strong growth between September 2024 and January 2025, it seems to be facing marked resistance. The weakness of the dollar does not immediately benefit crypto, as investors still hesitate to grant it a status of safe haven in the face of monetary and fiscal uncertainties.

However, some analysts believe that this dynamic could evolve with the increasing introduction of bitcoin into the macroeconomic strategies of several U.S. states.

Is bitcoin on the verge of becoming a strategic reserve asset?

As economic uncertainty drives investors to seek alternatives to traditional bonds, several U.S. states are beginning to modify their approach to bitcoin. The Montana Business and Labor Committee has adopted a bill aimed at including bitcoin and precious metals in state reserves.

An initiative followed by Utah, Arizona, Texas, and other states signals a profound change in the perception of this asset.

This evolution occurs within a troubled macroeconomic context. Moreover, some observers fear that the U.S. government may be compelled to adopt an expansionist fiscal policy to revive the economy, notably through direct payments to households. Such a decision could strengthen bitcoin’s appeal as protection against inflation, similar to gold.

“Investors need to stop focusing solely on the dollar and start observing how states approach bitcoin as a reserve asset,” emphasizes Aleš Michl, Governor of the Czech National Bank.

If bitcoin is currently facing a period of uncertainty due to fluctuations in the bond market, underlying trends indicate a structural change in its institutional adoption. The gradual inclusion of bitcoin in state reserves and its proximity to precious metals mark a new step in its integration within the global economic system.

However, its evolution will also depend on the appetite of institutional investors, particularly through the capital flows into spot Bitcoin ETF, which have recorded net outflows of $125 million in recent days.

Far from being a mere speculative alternative, bitcoin is increasingly positioning itself as a key indicator of global monetary tensions, a role it could fully assume if distrust of the dollar were to intensify.