河流交换报告说，国家采用比特币仅占其全部潜力的3％。

河流交换平台发布了一份非常有趣的报告，上面有关比特币。我们正处于与互联网相似的采用率的开始。

The River exchange platform has published a very interesting report on bitcoin. We are at the very beginning of an adoption rate similar to that of the internet.

河流交换平台发布了一份非常有趣的报告，上面有关比特币。我们正处于与互联网相似的采用率的开始。

Bitcoin vs Internet

比特币与互联网

The world is adopting bitcoin faster than any other asset, despite the current turmoil in the crypto market. Here is a series of data gathered by River to understand that we are only at the very early stages.

尽管当前的加密货币市场发生了动荡，但世界比任何其他资产都采用比特币要快。这是River收集的一系列数据，以了解我们仅在早期阶段。

For example, the number of publicly traded companies that have adopted bitcoin is less than 1%. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ only have 2 and 3 companies respectively that have made bitcoin their main cash asset.

例如，采用比特币的上市公司的数量不到1％。标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克分别只有2家和3家公司使比特币成为主要现金资产。

It is estimated that 18 countries hold bitcoin. Most obtain it through mining. This includes Bhutan, El Salvador, Iran, Oman, and Ethiopia. Others have acquired it through seizures in criminal cases (China, USA, UK). Some, like the United Arab Emirates, purchase it directly.

据估计，有18个国家拥有比特币。大多数通过采矿获得。其中包括不丹，萨尔瓦多，伊朗，阿曼和埃塞俄比亚。其他人则通过刑事案件（中国，美国，英国）的癫痫发作获得了它。有些人，例如阿拉伯联合酋长国，直接购买。

“Given the increased geopolitical uncertainty and the global trend to abandon U.S. Treasury bonds as reserve assets, it is possible that at least one G20 country will announce holding bitcoins for strategic purposes within the next four years”, estimates River.

“鉴于地缘政治不确定性的增加以及放弃美国国库券作为储备资产的全球趋势，在未来四年内，至少有一个二十国集团的国家可能在战略目的宣布持有比特币，”据估计。

“If the dollar remains the uncontested global reserve currency […], countries like Russia have begun to use alternative currencies, including bitcoin, for international trade”.

“如果美元仍然是无争议的全球储备货币[…]，像俄罗斯这样的国家已经开始使用包括比特币在内的替代货币进行国际贸易”。

Ultimately, much will depend on the United States where Senator Cynthia Lummis is working hard to convince Congress to buy between one and five million BTC… However, River estimates that the probability of such a scenario is “low”.

最终，很大程度上取决于美国参议员辛西娅·卢米斯（Cynthia Lummis）正在努力说服国会购买一到五百万BTC的美国……但是，河流估计这种情况的可能性是“低”。

River does believe, however, that it is likely that Congress will vote in favor of an exemption from the capital gains tax for small payments of less than $200.

然而，河确实认为，国会很可能会投票赞成免征少于200美元的少量付款的资本利得税。

We will see if Donald Trump dares to buy between 5% and 20% of the bitcoins in order to erase part of the debt in the coming years.

我们将看到唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）是否敢于购买比特币的5％至20％，以便在未来几年消除债务的一部分。

The best is yet to come

最好的是

According to River, bitcoin adoption is only “3% of its full potential”. Three main indicators lead to this figure:

根据河的说法，比特币的采用仅是“其全部潜力的3％”。三个主要指标导致了这一数字：

* the network’s hashrate;

*网络的哈希拉特；

* the number of bitcoin users;

*比特币用户的数量；

* the share of the network's hashrate managed by publicly traded companies.

*该网络的哈希拉特人的份额由公开交易的公司管理。

The upside potential remains immense…

上升潜力仍然很大……

In the long term, River expects a single bitcoin to be worth several tens of millions of dollars and to replace the dollar as the international reserve currency. An opinion shared by yours truly.

从长远来看，里弗（River）预计，单个比特币价值数千万美元，并取代美元作为国际储备货币。您的意见确实是您的。

Bitcoin vs Gold & Dollar

比特币与黄金和美元

The report highlights that in 2024, thanks to the “halving”, bitcoin became harder to obtain than gold!

该报告强调，由于“减半”，比特币在2024年变得比黄金更难获得！

The halving refers to the part of the protocol that, every four years, halves the rate of BTC issuance. About 900 were created per day before April 2024, compared to 450 today.

减半是指协议的一部分，即每四年将BTC发行率减半。每天在2024年4月之前创建了约900个，而今天有450个。

Meanwhile, the number of dollars in circulation has increased by 3.7% (more like 7% on average). This increase was 2% for gold in 2024 and only 0.85% for bitcoin.

同时，流通的美元数量增加了3.7％（平均更高7％）。 2024年黄金的增长为2％，比特币仅为0.85％。

Thus, after 18 years of existence, more than 94% of the 21 million bitcoins have already been issued. There are precisely 19.82 million BTC in circulation at the time of writing.

因此，在存在18年后，已经发行了2100万比特币中的94％以上。在撰写本文时，循环中的流通量恰好有1,982万。

These bitcoins are mostly held by individuals (70%). Next are ETFs like BlackRock’s with 6% of the BTC. Companies like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) hold 4.4% and it’s 1.4% for governments. It is estimated that nearly 10% of the BTC are lost forever.

这些比特币主要由个人持有（70％）。接下来是像贝莱德（Blackrock）一样的ETF，其中有6％的BTC。像战略（以前是MicroStrategy）这样的公司持有4.4％，政府为1.4％。据估计，近10％的BTC永远损失了。

These figures could change significantly in 2025 if the United States does indeed decide to purchase 20% of the BTC as Michael Saylor suggests. Wait and see…

如果美国确实决定购买20％的BTC，那么这些数字可能会在2025年发生重大变化。拭目以待…

How has the network evolved, technically?

网络在技术上是如何发展的？

Regarding the protocol, 115 developers have actively worked on the code over the past year. They made over 2,500 proposals to modify the code, totalling 276,000 lines of code that were adjusted.

关于该协议，在过去的一年中，有115位开发人员积极从事该守则。他们提出了2500多个建议，以修改代码，总计276,000行的代码进行了调整。

Thirteen sponsors fund these developers, with three newcomers in 2024. Good news for the decentralization of the network. For instance, Blockstream, Brink, Spiral, etc.

13个赞助商为这些开发商提供了资金，并在2024年与三名新移民一起。该网络的权力下放是个好消息。例如，块状，边缘，螺旋等。

The year 2024 was marked by many proposals aimed at modifying the protocol. However, the emergence of “inscriptions” (Ordinal, BTC-20, etc.) has frozen several initiatives due to the disagreements they caused within the community.

2024年的标志是许多旨在修改协议的建议。但是，由于他们在社区中引起的分歧，“铭文”（序言，BTC-20等）的出现冻结了几项计划。

As long as the developers and the community at large haven’t reached a consensus, the probability, timeline, and implementation of proposed changes will remain uncertain.

只要开发商和社区都没有达成共识，拟议更改的概率，时间表和实施将仍然不确定。

Most proposals aim to increase the number of people who can take possession of their bitcoins. However, the figures show that this is absolutely not a priority, hence the status quo.

大多数建议旨在增加可以拥有比特币的人数。但是，这些数字表明，这绝对不是优先事项，因此是现状。

Not your keys, not your coins!

不是您的钥匙，而不是您的硬币！

Decentralization of Bitcoin

比特币的权力下放

Decentral

分散