河流交換報告說，國家採用比特幣僅佔其全部潛力的3％。

河流交換平台發布了一份非常有趣的報告，上面有關比特幣。我們正處於與互聯網相似的採用率的開始。

The River exchange platform has published a very interesting report on bitcoin. We are at the very beginning of an adoption rate similar to that of the internet.

河流交換平台發布了一份非常有趣的報告，上面有關比特幣。我們正處於與互聯網相似的採用率的開始。

Bitcoin vs Internet

比特幣與互聯網

The world is adopting bitcoin faster than any other asset, despite the current turmoil in the crypto market. Here is a series of data gathered by River to understand that we are only at the very early stages.

儘管當前的加密貨幣市場發生了動盪，但世界比任何其他資產都採用比特幣要快。這是River收集的一系列數據，以了解我們僅在早期階段。

For example, the number of publicly traded companies that have adopted bitcoin is less than 1%. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ only have 2 and 3 companies respectively that have made bitcoin their main cash asset.

例如，採用比特幣的上市公司的數量不到1％。標準普爾500指數和納斯達克分別只有2家和3家公司使比特幣成為主要現金資產。

It is estimated that 18 countries hold bitcoin. Most obtain it through mining. This includes Bhutan, El Salvador, Iran, Oman, and Ethiopia. Others have acquired it through seizures in criminal cases (China, USA, UK). Some, like the United Arab Emirates, purchase it directly.

據估計，有18個國家擁有比特幣。大多數通過採礦獲得。其中包括不丹，薩爾瓦多，伊朗，阿曼和埃塞俄比亞。其他人則通過刑事案件（中國，美國，英國）的癲癇發作獲得了它。有些人，例如阿拉伯聯合酋長國，直接購買。

“Given the increased geopolitical uncertainty and the global trend to abandon U.S. Treasury bonds as reserve assets, it is possible that at least one G20 country will announce holding bitcoins for strategic purposes within the next four years”, estimates River.

“鑑於地緣政治不確定性的增加以及放棄美國國庫券作為儲備資產的全球趨勢，在未來四年內，至少有一個二十國集團的國家可能在戰略目的宣布持有比特幣，”據估計。

“If the dollar remains the uncontested global reserve currency […], countries like Russia have begun to use alternative currencies, including bitcoin, for international trade”.

“如果美元仍然是無爭議的全球儲備貨幣[…]，像俄羅斯這樣的國家已經開始使用包括比特幣在內的替代貨幣進行國際貿易”。

Ultimately, much will depend on the United States where Senator Cynthia Lummis is working hard to convince Congress to buy between one and five million BTC… However, River estimates that the probability of such a scenario is “low”.

最終，很大程度上取決於美國參議員辛西婭·盧米斯（Cynthia Lummis）正在努力說服國會購買一到五百萬BTC的美國……但是，河流估計這種情況的可能性是“低”。

River does believe, however, that it is likely that Congress will vote in favor of an exemption from the capital gains tax for small payments of less than $200.

然而，河確實認為，國會很可能會投票贊成免徵少於200美元的少量付款的資本利得稅。

We will see if Donald Trump dares to buy between 5% and 20% of the bitcoins in order to erase part of the debt in the coming years.

我們將看到唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）是否敢於購買比特幣的5％至20％，以便在未來幾年消除債務的一部分。

The best is yet to come

最好的是

According to River, bitcoin adoption is only “3% of its full potential”. Three main indicators lead to this figure:

根據河的說法，比特幣的採用僅是“其全部潛力的3％”。三個主要指標導致了這一數字：

* the network’s hashrate;

*網絡的哈希拉特；

* the number of bitcoin users;

*比特幣用戶的數量；

* the share of the network's hashrate managed by publicly traded companies.

*該網絡的哈希拉特人的份額由公開交易的公司管理。

The upside potential remains immense…

上升潛力仍然很大……

In the long term, River expects a single bitcoin to be worth several tens of millions of dollars and to replace the dollar as the international reserve currency. An opinion shared by yours truly.

從長遠來看，里弗（River）預計，單個比特幣價值數千萬美元，並取代美元作為國際儲備貨幣。您的意見確實是您的。

Bitcoin vs Gold & Dollar

比特幣與黃金和美元

The report highlights that in 2024, thanks to the “halving”, bitcoin became harder to obtain than gold!

該報告強調，由於“減半”，比特幣在2024年變得比黃金更難獲得！

The halving refers to the part of the protocol that, every four years, halves the rate of BTC issuance. About 900 were created per day before April 2024, compared to 450 today.

減半是指協議的一部分，即每四年將BTC發行率減半。每天在2024年4月之前創建了約900個，而今天有450個。

Meanwhile, the number of dollars in circulation has increased by 3.7% (more like 7% on average). This increase was 2% for gold in 2024 and only 0.85% for bitcoin.

同時，流通的美元數量增加了3.7％（平均更高7％）。 2024年黃金的增長為2％，比特幣僅為0.85％。

Thus, after 18 years of existence, more than 94% of the 21 million bitcoins have already been issued. There are precisely 19.82 million BTC in circulation at the time of writing.

因此，在存在18年後，已經發行了2100萬比特幣中的94％以上。在撰寫本文時，循環中的流通量恰好有1,982萬。

These bitcoins are mostly held by individuals (70%). Next are ETFs like BlackRock’s with 6% of the BTC. Companies like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) hold 4.4% and it’s 1.4% for governments. It is estimated that nearly 10% of the BTC are lost forever.

這些比特幣主要由個人持有（70％）。接下來是像貝萊德（Blackrock）一樣的ETF，其中有6％的BTC。像戰略（以前是MicroStrategy）這樣的公司持有4.4％，政府為1.4％。據估計，近10％的BTC永遠損失了。

These figures could change significantly in 2025 if the United States does indeed decide to purchase 20% of the BTC as Michael Saylor suggests. Wait and see…

如果美國確實決定購買20％的BTC，那麼這些數字可能會在2025年發生重大變化。拭目以待…

How has the network evolved, technically?

網絡在技術上是如何發展的？

Regarding the protocol, 115 developers have actively worked on the code over the past year. They made over 2,500 proposals to modify the code, totalling 276,000 lines of code that were adjusted.

關於該協議，在過去的一年中，有115位開發人員積極從事該守則。他們提出了2500多個建議，以修改代碼，總計276,000行的代碼進行了調整。

Thirteen sponsors fund these developers, with three newcomers in 2024. Good news for the decentralization of the network. For instance, Blockstream, Brink, Spiral, etc.

13個贊助商為這些開發商提供了資金，並在2024年與三名新移民一起。該網絡的權力下放是個好消息。例如，塊狀，邊緣，螺旋等。

The year 2024 was marked by many proposals aimed at modifying the protocol. However, the emergence of “inscriptions” (Ordinal, BTC-20, etc.) has frozen several initiatives due to the disagreements they caused within the community.

2024年的標誌是許多旨在修改協議的建議。但是，由於他們在社區中引起的分歧，“銘文”（序言，BTC-20等）的出現凍結了幾項計劃。

As long as the developers and the community at large haven’t reached a consensus, the probability, timeline, and implementation of proposed changes will remain uncertain.

只要開發商和社區都沒有達成共識，擬議更改的概率，時間表和實施將仍然不確定。

Most proposals aim to increase the number of people who can take possession of their bitcoins. However, the figures show that this is absolutely not a priority, hence the status quo.

大多數建議旨在增加可以擁有比特幣的人數。但是，這些數字表明，這絕對不是優先事項，因此是現狀。

Not your keys, not your coins!

不是您的鑰匙，而不是您的硬幣！

Decentralization of Bitcoin

比特幣的權力下放

Decentral

分散