亿万富翁迈克尔·彭博（Michael Bloomberg）警告美国债务，这可能是比特币价格的后风

亿万富翁迈克尔·彭博（Michael Bloomberg）警告说，美国面临着一个重大估计的公共债务和赤字浪潮。

Billionaire Michael Bloomberg, the founder of the eponymous company, has warned that the U.S. faces a major reckoning as public debt and deficit surge.

同名公司的创始人亿万富翁迈克尔·彭博（Michael Bloomberg）警告说，美国面临着一个重大的公共债务和赤字激增。

Bloomberg was responding to a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report that estimated that public debt will hit 100% of GDP this year and 118% in the next decade.

彭博社正在回应国会预算办公室（CBO）的报告，该报告估计，公共债务将在今年的100％击中GDP的100％，而在未来十年中，公共债务将达到118％。

In his opinion piece, he argued that the U.S. could face a grim fiscal reckoning if Congress fails to act to reduce spending. However, Congress and the Trump administration are implementing policies that may worsen the debt situation.

在他的看法中，他辩称，美国可能会面临严峻的财政估计，即使国会是否没有采取行动减少支出。但是，国会和特朗普政府正在执行可能恶化债务情况的政策。

Trump wants to deliver more tax cuts and partially pay for them through tariffs. The implication is that the tax cut will be so big such that tariffs will not fill the gap.

特朗普希望通过关税进行更多减税，并部分支付他们的费用。这意味着减税措施将是如此之大，以至于关税不会填补空白。

There is also a concern that the U.S. could move into a recession as Goldman Sachs and PIMCO have predicted. A recession at a time when debt is rising would lead to a higher debt-to-GDP ratio over time.

人们还担心，正如高盛和皮姆科所预测的那样，美国可能会陷入经济衰退。随着时间的推移，债务上升的衰退会导致债务与GDP的比率更高。

“Higher tariff revenues won’t come close to balancing the books. In fact, the impact on overall revenue is likely to be negative, because tariffs depress commercial activity and job creation,” Bloomberg wrote.

彭博社写道：“更高的关税收入不会接近平衡书籍。实际上，对总体收入的影响可能是负面的，因为关税会抑制商业活动和创造就业机会。”

A Debt Crisis Would Benefit Bitcoin Price

债务危机将使比特币价格受益

A debt crisis in the U.S. would benefit safe havens, which explains why the price of gold has surged to a record high. Bitcoin price would also benefit since it is often seen as a digital version of gold.

美国的债务危机将使避风港受益，这解释了为什么黄金的价格飙升至创纪录的。比特币价格也将受益，因为它通常被视为黄金的数字版本。

Indeed, despite recent outflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs have had a net inflow of over $700 million this year and $36 billion since January 2024. That is a sign that investors see it as a safe-haven asset.

确实，尽管最近流出了，但现货比特币ETF今年的净流入量超过7亿美元，自2024年1月以来的净流入量超过360亿美元。这是投资者将其视为安全资产的标志。

To some extent, Bitcoin is better than gold since it has a fixed supply cap and is seeing more adoption by companies like MetaPlanet, Grayscale, Trump Media, and Tesla.

在某种程度上，比特币比黄金要好，因为它具有固定的供应上限，并且看到Metaplanet，Grayscale，Trump Media和Tesla等公司的收养更多。

BTC Price Analysis: Can it Retest ATH

BTC价格分析：可以重新测试

Short-term Bitcoin price charts suggest that the coin is on the cusp of a bearish breakdown, potentially to $70,000. However, the weekly chart shows that the recent retreat is a mere pullback inside an ascending channel. For example, BTC dropped from the upper side of this channel in March last year to its lower between August and November.

短期比特币的价格图表明，硬币正处于看跌损失的风口浪尖，有可能达到70,000美元。但是，每周的图表表明，最近的撤退只是升上频道内部的回调。例如，去年3月，BTC从该频道的上侧降至8月至11月之间的下部。

It is worth noting that the BTC price has remained stubbornly above the 50-week Exponential Moving Average, a sign that the uptrend is intact. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the Bitcoin price will rebound and retest the all-time high of $109,300 later this year as U.S. debt fears rise.

值得注意的是，BTC价格一直固执地超过50周的指数移动平均线，这表明上升趋势是完整的。因此，随着美国债务担心的上升，比特币价格将反弹并重新测试109,300美元的历史最高点。

The bullish BTC price forecast will become invalidated if the coin crashes below the 50-week moving average at $77,800. Such a move would lead to a big drop, potentially to the psychological point at $50,000.

如果硬币坠毁在50周的移动平均水平为77,800美元以下，看涨的BTC价格预测将无效。这样的举动将导致大幅度下降，有可能以50,000美元的价格到达心理学。