Bernstein 的比特币繁荣：揭开其 9 万美元预测背后的因素

Bernstein's Bullish Outlook on Bitcoin: How They Arrived at $90K

伯恩斯坦对比特币的看好前景：它们如何达到 9 万美元

As the crypto markets rebound with vigor, Bernstein analysts have undergone a paradigm shift, embracing a bullish stance on Bitcoin. Their latest prediction sets a price target of $90,000 by the end of 2024. But what factors underpin this bold forecast?

随着加密货币市场强劲反弹，伯恩斯坦分析师经历了范式转变，对比特币持看涨立场。他们最新的预测将到 2024 年底的价格目标设定为 90,000 美元。但是什么因素支撑了这一大胆的预测呢？

Bernstein's Optimism: A Confluence of Drivers

伯恩斯坦的乐观主义：驱动因素的汇合

Bernstein's bullish outlook stems from a confluence of factors, as outlined by analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra. The analysts cite the substantial influx of capital into spot Bitcoin ETFs, coupled with aggressive expansion by leading Bitcoin miners, driven by record-high miner revenues.

正如分析师 Gautam Chhugani 和 Mahika Sapra 所概述的那样，伯恩斯坦的乐观前景源于多种因素的综合作用。分析师指出，大量资金涌入现货比特币 ETF，加上在创纪录的矿商收入推动下，领先的比特币矿商积极扩张。

Bitcoin Halving: A Catalyst for Growth?

比特币减半：增长的催化剂？

The upcoming Bitcoin halving in late April, a pre-programmed event that will halve the rewards miners receive for processing transactions, also plays a role in Bernstein's bullishness. Historically, halvings have supported prices by reducing the daily supply.

即将到来的 4 月底比特币减半是一项预先计划好的事件，矿工处理交易获得的奖励将减半，这也是伯恩斯坦看涨的一个因素。从历史上看，减半通过减少每日供应量来支撑价格。

Impact on Miners: A Balancing Act

对矿工的影响：平衡之举

However, the halving can also impact miners negatively, as their revenue is cut by 50%. This can force some miners to close operations, potentially leading to a decline in the hash rate, a measure of the total computing power dedicated to mining Bitcoin.

然而，减半也会对矿工产生负面影响，因为他们的收入减少了 50%。这可能会迫使一些矿工关闭运营，可能导致哈希率下降，哈希率是衡量专用于挖掘比特币的总计算能力的指标。

Recognizing this potential impact, Bernstein has revised its prediction for the post-halving hash rate decline from 15% to a milder 7%. This more optimistic outlook is supported by the potential for rising prices and transaction fees to compensate for the revenue reduction.

认识到这种潜在影响，Bernstein 将其对减半后算力下降的预测从 15% 修正为较温和的 7%。这种更为乐观的前景得到了价格和交易费用上涨的潜力的支持，以弥补收入的减少。

Bernstein's Stance on Bitcoin Miners

伯恩斯坦对比特币矿工的立场

Bernstein remains bullish on the stock prices of some popular public Bitcoin miners in the United States, including Marathon Digital (MARA) and CleanSpark (CLSK). The analysts believe that the rewards and transaction fees associated with successful block mining, coupled with rising prices, can mitigate the impact of the halving.

伯恩斯坦仍然看好美国一些受欢迎的公共比特币矿商的股价，包括 Marathon Digital (MARA) 和 CleanSpark (CLSK)。分析师认为，与成功的区块挖矿相关的奖励和交易费用，加上价格上涨，可以减轻减半的影响。

Bitcoin's Short-Term Challenges: Headwinds and Consolidation

比特币的短期挑战：逆风和整合

While the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive, the short-term picture presents some challenges. Despite a recent surge, buy pressure has yet to fully take hold, and prices remain below $75,000. The coin is currently consolidating, with news of outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and fears of a pre-halving dip tempering bullish sentiment.

虽然比特币的长期前景仍然乐观，但短期情况却带来了一些挑战。尽管最近价格飙升，但购买压力尚未完全形成，价格仍低于 75,000 美元。该货币目前正在盘整，灰度比特币信托基金（GBTC）资金流出的消息以及对减半前下跌的担忧削弱了看涨情绪。

Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Targets

技术分析：关键水平和目标

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is trading below $68,000, with support at $61,000. A conclusive break above the all-time highs at $73,737 could ignite a further rally, attracting additional demand.

从技术角度来看，比特币交易价格低于 68,000 美元，支撑位为 61,000 美元。最终突破历史高点 73,737 美元可能会引发进一步反弹，吸引更多需求。

Conclusion: Bernstein's Rationale and Market Outlook

结论：伯恩斯坦的基本原理和市场前景

Bernstein's bullish Bitcoin prediction is based on a confluence of factors, including capital inflows, miner expansion, and the potential impact of the halving. While short-term headwinds exist, the analysts remain optimistic about the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin, citing the potential for rising prices and transaction fees to support the network and miners.

伯恩斯坦对比特币的看涨预测是基于多种因素的综合考虑，包括资本流入、矿商扩张以及减半的潜在影响。尽管存在短期阻力，但分析师仍对比特币的长期轨迹持乐观态度，理由是价格和交易费用上涨有可能支持网络和矿工。