Bernstein 的比特幣繁榮：揭開其 9 萬美元預測背後的因素

Bernstein's Bullish Outlook on Bitcoin: How They Arrived at $90K

伯恩斯坦對比特幣的看好前景：它們如何達到 9 萬美元

As the crypto markets rebound with vigor, Bernstein analysts have undergone a paradigm shift, embracing a bullish stance on Bitcoin. Their latest prediction sets a price target of $90,000 by the end of 2024. But what factors underpin this bold forecast?

隨著加密貨幣市場強勁反彈，伯恩斯坦分析師經歷了典範轉移，對比特幣持看漲立場。他們最新的預測將到 2024 年底的目標價設定為 90,000 美元。但是是什麼因素支撐了這個大膽的預測呢？

Bernstein's Optimism: A Confluence of Drivers

伯恩斯坦的樂觀主義：驅動因素的匯合

Bernstein's bullish outlook stems from a confluence of factors, as outlined by analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra. The analysts cite the substantial influx of capital into spot Bitcoin ETFs, coupled with aggressive expansion by leading Bitcoin miners, driven by record-high miner revenues.

正如分析師 Gautam Chhugani 和 Mahika Sapra 所概述的那樣，伯恩斯坦的樂觀前景源於多種因素的綜合作用。分析師指出，大量資金湧入現貨比特幣 ETF，加上在創紀錄的礦商收入推動下，領先的比特幣礦商積極擴張。

Bitcoin Halving: A Catalyst for Growth?

比特幣減半：成長的催化劑？

The upcoming Bitcoin halving in late April, a pre-programmed event that will halve the rewards miners receive for processing transactions, also plays a role in Bernstein's bullishness. Historically, halvings have supported prices by reducing the daily supply.

即將到來的 4 月底比特幣減半是一項預先計劃好的事件，礦工處理交易獲得的獎勵將減半，這也是伯恩斯坦看漲的一個因素。從歷史上看，減半透過減少每日供應量來支撐價格。

Impact on Miners: A Balancing Act

對礦工的影響：平衡之舉

However, the halving can also impact miners negatively, as their revenue is cut by 50%. This can force some miners to close operations, potentially leading to a decline in the hash rate, a measure of the total computing power dedicated to mining Bitcoin.

然而，減半也會對礦工產生負面影響，因為他們的收入減少了 50%。這可能會迫使一些礦工關閉運營，可能導致哈希率下降，哈希率是衡量專用於挖掘比特幣的總計算能力的指標。

Recognizing this potential impact, Bernstein has revised its prediction for the post-halving hash rate decline from 15% to a milder 7%. This more optimistic outlook is supported by the potential for rising prices and transaction fees to compensate for the revenue reduction.

認識到這種潛在影響，Bernstein 將其對減半後算力下降的預測從 15% 修正為較溫和的 7%。這種更樂觀的前景得到了價格和交易費用上漲的潛力的支持，以彌補收入的減少。

Bernstein's Stance on Bitcoin Miners

伯恩斯坦對比特幣礦工的立場

Bernstein remains bullish on the stock prices of some popular public Bitcoin miners in the United States, including Marathon Digital (MARA) and CleanSpark (CLSK). The analysts believe that the rewards and transaction fees associated with successful block mining, coupled with rising prices, can mitigate the impact of the halving.

伯恩斯坦仍然看好美國一些受歡迎的公共比特幣礦商的股票價格，包括 Marathon Digital (MARA) 和 CleanSpark (CLSK)。分析師認為，與成功的區塊挖礦相關的獎勵和交易費用，加上價格上漲，可以減輕減半的影響。

Bitcoin's Short-Term Challenges: Headwinds and Consolidation

比特幣的短期挑戰：逆風與整合

While the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive, the short-term picture presents some challenges. Despite a recent surge, buy pressure has yet to fully take hold, and prices remain below $75,000. The coin is currently consolidating, with news of outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and fears of a pre-halving dip tempering bullish sentiment.

雖然比特幣的長期前景仍然樂觀，但短期情況卻帶來了一些挑戰。儘管最近價格飆升，但購買壓力尚未完全形成，價格仍低於 75,000 美元。該貨幣目前正在盤整，灰階比特幣信託基金（GBTC）資金流出的消息以及對​​減半前下跌的擔憂削弱了看漲情緒。

Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Targets

技術分析：關鍵水平和目標

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is trading below $68,000, with support at $61,000. A conclusive break above the all-time highs at $73,737 could ignite a further rally, attracting additional demand.

從技術面來看，比特幣交易價格低於 68,000 美元，支撐位為 61,000 美元。最終突破歷史高點 73,737 美元可能會引發進一步反彈，吸引更多需求。

Conclusion: Bernstein's Rationale and Market Outlook

結論：伯恩斯坦的基本原理與市場前景

Bernstein's bullish Bitcoin prediction is based on a confluence of factors, including capital inflows, miner expansion, and the potential impact of the halving. While short-term headwinds exist, the analysts remain optimistic about the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin, citing the potential for rising prices and transaction fees to support the network and miners.

伯恩斯坦對比特幣的看漲預測是基於多種因素的綜合考慮，包括資本流入、礦商擴張以及減半的潛在影響。儘管有短期阻力，但分析師仍對比特幣的長期軌跡持樂觀態度，理由是價格和交易費用上漲有可能支持網路和礦工。