BCH 价格预测：人工智能模型设定看涨和看跌目标，市场等待交替季节

比特币现金（BCH）的历史可以追溯到 2017 年，是领先的加密货币比特币（BTC）的硬分叉，旨在解决 BTC 的一些可扩展性问题。

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) price predictions for 2024: up 43% or down 20%?

2024 年比特币现金 (BCH) 价格预测：上涨 43% 还是下跌 20%？

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is a cryptocurrency that was created in 2017 as a hard fork of Bitcoin (BTC). It was designed to address some of BTC’s scalability issues by increasing the block size limit.

比特币现金 (BCH) 是一种加密货币，作为比特币 (BTC) 的硬分叉于 2017 年创建。它旨在通过增加区块大小限制来解决 BTC 的一些可扩展性问题。

As a result, BCH can handle more transactions per second than BTC, and it also has lower transaction fees. However, BCH has faced some challenges, including an internal disagreement that led to another fork and the creation of Bitcoin Satoshi Vision (BSV) in 2018.

因此，BCH 每秒可以处理比 BTC 更多的交易，而且交易费用也更低。然而，BCH 面临着一些挑战，包括导致另一次分叉的内部分歧以及 2018 年比特币中本聪愿景 (BSV) 的创建。

Despite its advantages, BCH has not been able to achieve a market capitalization that is comparable to its older cousin. At the time of writing, BTC’s market cap was $1.8 trillion, while BCH’s market cap was only $9.9 billion.

尽管 BCH 具有优势，但其市值仍无法与其老表兄弟相媲美。截至撰写本文时，BTC 的市值为 1.8 万亿美元，而 BCH 的市值仅为 99 亿美元。

However, BCH has performed well in 2024, with a price increase of 43.49% over the last 30 days. One BCH was trading for $505.69, and its year-to-date (YTD) returns were 94.76%. While this still fell short of BTC's YTD return of 122.30%, BCH remained one of the most established cryptocurrencies and boasted an impressive performance of its own.

不过，BCH在2024年表现良好，近30天价格上涨43.49%。一枚 BCH 的交易价格为 505.69 美元，年初至今 (YTD) 回报率为 94.76%。尽管这仍然低于 BTC 年初至今 122.30% 的回报率，但 BCH 仍然是最成熟的加密货币之一，并且拥有令人印象深刻的表现。

To assess potential price movements, Finbold consulted some of the most advanced publicly available AI models for price targets, considering both bullish and bearish factors.

为了评估潜在的价格走势，芬博尔德参考了一些最先进的公开人工智能模型作为价格目标，同时考虑了看涨和看跌因素。

ChatGPT-4o outlined bullish and bearish factors for BCH

ChatGPT-4o 概述了 BCH 的看涨和看跌因素

When prompted, the large language model first highlighted two sets of factors — bullish and bearish — which it identified as the most important.

当出现提示时，大型语言模型首先强调了两组因素——看涨和看跌——它认为这是最重要的。

On the bullish side, ChatGPT-4o pointed to the increasing adoption of BCH, especially among underbanked populations, and several strategic partnerships aimed at improving accessibility.

从乐观的角度来看，ChatGPT-4o 指出 BCH 的采用率越来越高，尤其是在银行服务不足的人群中，以及一些旨在提高可及性的战略合作伙伴关系。

Additionally, it noted the current positive sentiment of the broader cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin Cash’s continued popularity due to its fast and cheap transactions as bullish factors.

此外，它指出当前更广泛的加密货币市场的积极情绪以及比特币现金因其快速且廉价的交易而持续受欢迎是看涨因素。

What about the bearish factors? While GPT-4o did mention the often-cited volatile nature of cryptocurrencies and potential regulatory issues as two possible obstacles, those issues are inherent in cryptocurrencies as a whole.

利空因素又如何呢？虽然 GPT-4o 确实提到了经常被提及的加密货币的波动性和潜在的监管问题作为两个可能的障碍，但这些问题是整个加密货币所固有的。

However, the third point raised by the AI model — growing competition from rivals like Solana (SOL) or Ethereum (ETH) layer 2 solutions — carries more weight. Notably, Solana supports even faster and cheaper transactions, making it a primary competitor to BCH.

然而，人工智能模型提出的第三点——来自 Solana (SOL) 或以太坊 (ETH) 第 2 层解决方案等竞争对手的日益激烈的竞争——更具分量。值得注意的是，Solana 支持更快、更便宜的交易，使其成为 BCH 的主要竞争对手。

ChatGPT-4o set two contrasting price targets

ChatGPT-4o 设置了两个截然不同的价格目标

After some persuasion, ChatGPT-4o, which was initially hesitant, set two concrete price targets — one aligned with a more bullish scenario and the other likely to occur if bearish factors proved to be more significant.

经过一番劝说，最初犹豫不决的 ChatGPT-4o 设定了两个具体的价格目标——一个与更看涨的情况一致，另一个可能在看跌因素被证明更为重要时出现。

In the optimistic case, the AI model suggested that BCH could reach prices as high as $650 by the end of the year. For this to happen, the market optimism would have to continue, and the start of the long-awaited alt season could propel prices to this level. It’s worth noting that this is still below the asset’s yearly high of $695, which was set in early April.

在乐观的情况下，人工智能模型表明 BCH 的价格可能会在今年年底达到 650 美元的高位。要实现这一点，市场的乐观情绪必须持续下去，而期待已久的山寨币季节的开始可能会将价格推至这一水平。值得注意的是，这仍低于该资产 4 月初创下的 695 美元的年度高点。

Unsurprisingly, the bearish scenario, which outlines a drop to $400, would largely depend on whether the broader cryptocurrency market experiences a crash before the end of the year. If met, this mark would indicate a 20% decrease from the current BCH price. While many analysts are warning that a flash crash — a sudden plummet followed by a rapid recovery — is possible, only the most bearish researchers see a serious risk of a crash in 2024.

毫不奇怪，看跌情景（即跌至 400 美元）将在很大程度上取决于更广泛的加密货币市场是否会在年底前经历崩盘。如果满足，该标记将表明当前 BCH 价格下降 20%。尽管许多分析师警告称，闪电崩盘（突然暴跌后迅速复苏）是可能的，但只有最悲观的研究人员认为 2024 年崩盘的风险很大。