电池作为21世纪的关键技术

电池曾经是小型电气和电子设备的重要但廉价的组件。但随着电动汽车和可再生能源的兴起，它们可能已成为绿色转型最重要的技术。

Batteries used to be an essential but cheap component of small electric and electronic devices. But with the rise of EVs and renewables, they have become the most important technology for the green transition.

电池曾经是小型电气和电子设备的重要但廉价的组件。但随着电动汽车和可再生能源的兴起，它们已成为绿色转型最重要的技术。

The growth in battery demand is barely getting started, with an exponential rise in demand from EVs and energy storage expected in the upcoming years.

电池需求的增长才刚刚开始，预计未来几年电动汽车和储能的需求将呈指​​数级增长。

The company leading the charge globally in battery production is CATL – Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd, responsible for manufacturing 36.8% of total battery volume worldwide.

全球领先的电池生产公司是宁德时代新能源科技有限公司，其电池产量占全球电池总产量的36.8%。

The company has recently announced a few new products that could radically change its growth potential and make it one of the largest industrial companies in the world in a few years.

该公司最近宣布了一些新产品，这些产品可能会从根本上改变其增长潜力，并使其在几年内成为世界上最大的工业公司之一。

Its stock reflects the recent good news and product release, with a price up 54% so far this year, partially riding on a dramatic rebound of Chinese equities as a whole.

其股价反映了近期的利好消息和产品发布，今年迄今股价已上涨 54%，部分得益于中国股市整体大幅反弹。

Battery Market

电池市场

When it comes to EVs, batteries are important because almost every part of an EV system is superior to internal combustion engines (ICE): electric motors are more efficient, more reactive, smaller, more sturdy, and require less maintenance due to almost no moving part, and can even collect energy back when braking.

对于电动汽车而言，电池非常重要，因为电动汽车系统的几乎每个部分都优于内燃机 (ICE)：电动机效率更高、反应更灵敏、更小、更坚固，并且由于几乎不移动，因此需要更少的维护部分，甚至可以在制动时回收能量。

ICE cars have however one advantage. Liquid fuels are incredibly energy-dense. So for EVs to compete, they need the densest batteries possible. This way, the EV does not carry “dead weight” reducing the performance of the whole car.

然而，内燃机汽车有一个优势。液体燃料的能量密度极高。因此，电动汽车要想参与竞争，就需要尽可能密度最大的电池。这样，电动汽车就不会承受降低整车性能的“自重”。

We discussed in detail the possible chemistries and challenges of EV batteries in “The Future of Mobility – Battery Tech”.

我们在“移动出行的未来——电池技术”中详细讨论了电动汽车电池可能的化学成分和挑战。

Another sector in dire need of more and better batteries is renewable energy. Wind and solar are very efficient, but they also produce energy intermittently and often not when most needed (like in the evenings and winter).

另一个急需更多更好电池的领域是可再生能源。风能和太阳能非常高效，但它们也会间歇性地产生能量，而且通常不在最需要的时候（例如晚上和冬天）。

So for electric grids to stay stable, massive storage capacity is required. Here the issue is not battery density, as energy storage stays immobile.

因此，为了保持电网稳定，需要大量的存储容量。这里的问题不是电池密度，因为能量存储保持不变。

Instead, the 2 key factors are:

相反，两个关键因素是：

This market is expected to grow quickly, with a 26.4% CAGR from 2023 to 2033.

该市场预计将快速增长，2023 年至 2033 年复合年增长率为 26.4%。

We discussed in detail the possible chemistries and challenges of EV batteries in “The Future Of Energy Storage – Utility-Scale Batteries Tech”.

我们在“储能的未来——公用事业规模电池技术”中详细讨论了电动汽车电池可能的化学成分和挑战。

Battery production is a complex task, requiring massive scale for a few reasons:

电池生产是一项复杂的任务，需要大规模生产，原因如下：

This is why, in the battery business, the bigger the better.

这就是为什么在电池业务中，越大越好。

This creates a business flywheel that greatly rewards the largest companies and makes any smaller startup competitor struggle. Even with better technology, the need for multi-billion-dollar factories can cause problems in successfully producing and selling the batteries.

这创造了一个商业飞轮，极大地奖励了最大的公司，并使任何较小的初创竞争对手陷入困境。即使拥有更好的技术，对数十亿美元工厂的需求也可能会导致电池的成功生产和销售出现问题。

For example, the company Freyr stopped battery production in the summer of 2024, and Northvolt is cutting jobs and downsizing its production targets.

例如，Freyr公司于2024年夏季停止了电池生产，Northvolt正在裁员并缩小生产目标。

Meanwhile, CATL is expanding as quickly as it can, with many news in the last few months indicating how precious of a partner to global tech and industrial corporations and government CATL has become:

与此同时，宁德时代正在尽快扩张，过去几个月的许多新闻表明，宁德时代已成为全球科技和工业企业以及政府的宝贵合作伙伴：

Past Results

过去的结果

For now, a lot of CATL attention is focused on EVs, and improving battery technology through tweaking the manufacturing process of lithium-ion batteries.

目前，宁德时代的大部分注意力都集中在电动汽车上，并通过调整锂离子电池的制造工艺来改进电池技术。

Previously, the industry was expected to switch as soon as possible to solid-state batteries, due to their higher energy density, quicker charge, and better safety profile (no electrolyte that can catch fire).

此前，业界预计将尽快转向固态电池，因为固态电池具有更高的能量密度、更快的充电速度和更好的安全性（没有可能着火的电解质）。

Future domination by solid-state batteries might not be so clear cut, since CATL released a new lithium battery with a honeycomb design that makes it a lot denser and durable.

固态电池未来的主导地位可能不会那么明显，因为宁德时代发布了一款采用蜂窝设计的新型锂电池，使其密度更大、更耐用。

This is the key behind the announcement by CATL of a new LFP (lithium-iron-phosphate) battery that can add 600km of range in just 10 minutes. In total the driving range could be above 1,000 km (600 miles), totally removing all “anxiety range” for future EV owners.

这就是CATL宣布推出新型LFP（磷酸铁锂）电池背后的关键，该电池只需10分钟即可增加600公里的续航里程。总的行驶里程可能超过 1,000 公里（600 英里），完全消除了未来电动汽车车主的所有“焦虑范围”。

Overall, this means 1 km worth of range can be charged every second and a full charge for 1,000km will take 16.6 minutes.

总体而言，这意味着每秒可充电 1 公里的续航里程，充满电 1,000 公里需要 16.6 分钟。

Until recently, it was somewhat of a consensus that in the long run, lithium-ion was not the right chemistry for utility-scale energy storage. This is because lithium-ion is expensive, and degrades too quickly, usually losing performance badly in more or less 10 years.

直到最近，人们还达成了某种共识，即从长远来看，锂离子并不是适合公用事业规模储能的化学物质。这是因为锂离子电池价格昂贵，并且降解速度太快，通常在大约 10 年内就会严重丧失性能。

So, when CATL revealed the performance of its TENER containerized battery system, the whole battery industry was shocked.

所以，当宁德时代公布其TENER集装箱式电池系统的性能时，整个电池行业都震惊了。

The pilot project using the TENER has demonstrated zero degradation in capacity after a full 5 years of operation.

使用 TENER 的试点项目在运行整整 5 年后证明容量为零。

The honeycomb structure is likely becoming a central part of CATL's battery architecture. While not explicitly stated as such, this is probably what CATL referred to when talking about TENER:

蜂窝结构很可能成为宁德时代电池架构的核心部分。虽然没有明确说明，但这可能就是 CATL 在谈论 TENER 时所指的内容：

To realize TENER, the company used an SEI with biomimetic ion channels and high stability, together with self-assembled electrolyte technologies creating what it calls an “ageless energy storage system.

为了实现 TENER，该公司使用了具有仿生离子通道和高稳定性的 SEI，以及自组装电解质技术，创造了所谓的“永恒的能量存储系统”。

Based on state-of-the-

基于现状-