電池作為21世紀的關鍵技術

電池曾經是小型電氣和電子設備的重要但廉價的組件。但隨著電動車和再生能源的興起，它們可能已成為綠色轉型最重要的技術。

Batteries used to be an essential but cheap component of small electric and electronic devices. But with the rise of EVs and renewables, they have become the most important technology for the green transition.

電池曾經是小型電氣和電子設備的重要但廉價的組件。但隨著電動車和再生能源的興起，它們已成為綠色轉型最重要的技術。

The growth in battery demand is barely getting started, with an exponential rise in demand from EVs and energy storage expected in the upcoming years.

電池需求的成長才剛開始，預計未來幾年電動車和儲能的需求將呈指數級增長。

The company leading the charge globally in battery production is CATL – Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd, responsible for manufacturing 36.8% of total battery volume worldwide.

全球領先的電池生產公司是寧德時代新能源科技有限公司，其電池產量佔全球電池總產量的36.8%。

The company has recently announced a few new products that could radically change its growth potential and make it one of the largest industrial companies in the world in a few years.

該公司最近宣布了一些新產品，這些產品可能會從根本上改變其成長潛力，並使其在幾年內成為世界上最大的工業公司之一。

Its stock reflects the recent good news and product release, with a price up 54% so far this year, partially riding on a dramatic rebound of Chinese equities as a whole.

其股價反映了近期的利多消息和產品發布，今年迄今股價已上漲 54%，部分得益於中國股市整體大幅反彈。

Battery Market

電池市場

When it comes to EVs, batteries are important because almost every part of an EV system is superior to internal combustion engines (ICE): electric motors are more efficient, more reactive, smaller, more sturdy, and require less maintenance due to almost no moving part, and can even collect energy back when braking.

對於電動車而言，電池非常重要，因為電動車系統的幾乎每個部分都優於內燃機(ICE)：電動馬達效率更高、反應更靈敏、更小、更堅固，並且由於幾乎不移動，因此需要更少的維護部分，甚至可以在煞車時回收能量。

ICE cars have however one advantage. Liquid fuels are incredibly energy-dense. So for EVs to compete, they need the densest batteries possible. This way, the EV does not carry “dead weight” reducing the performance of the whole car.

然而，內燃機汽車有一個優勢。液體燃料的能量密度極高。因此，電動車要參與競爭，就需要盡可能密度最大的電池。這樣，電動車就不會承受降低整車性能的「自重」。

We discussed in detail the possible chemistries and challenges of EV batteries in “The Future of Mobility – Battery Tech”.

我們在「移動出行的未來—電池技術」中詳細討論了電動車電池可能的化學成分和挑戰。

Another sector in dire need of more and better batteries is renewable energy. Wind and solar are very efficient, but they also produce energy intermittently and often not when most needed (like in the evenings and winter).

另一個急需更多更好電池的領域是再生能源。風能和太陽能非常高效，但它們也會間歇性地產生能量，而且通常不在最需要的時候（例如晚上和冬天）。

So for electric grids to stay stable, massive storage capacity is required. Here the issue is not battery density, as energy storage stays immobile.

因此，為了保持電網穩定，需要大量的儲存容量。這裡的問題不是電池密度，因為能量儲存保持不變。

Instead, the 2 key factors are:

相反，兩個關鍵因素是：

This market is expected to grow quickly, with a 26.4% CAGR from 2023 to 2033.

該市場預計將快速成長，2023 年至 2033 年複合年增長率為 26.4%。

We discussed in detail the possible chemistries and challenges of EV batteries in “The Future Of Energy Storage – Utility-Scale Batteries Tech”.

我們在「儲能的未來—公用事業規模電池技術」中詳細討論了電動車電池可能的化學成分和挑戰。

Battery production is a complex task, requiring massive scale for a few reasons:

電池生產是一項複雜的任務，需要大規模生產，原因如下：

This is why, in the battery business, the bigger the better.

這就是為什麼在電池業務中，越大越好。

This creates a business flywheel that greatly rewards the largest companies and makes any smaller startup competitor struggle. Even with better technology, the need for multi-billion-dollar factories can cause problems in successfully producing and selling the batteries.

這創造了一個商業飛輪，極大地獎勵了最大的公司，並使任何較小的新創競爭對手陷入困境。即使擁有更好的技術，對數十億美元工廠的需求也可能導致電池的成功生產和銷售出現問題。

For example, the company Freyr stopped battery production in the summer of 2024, and Northvolt is cutting jobs and downsizing its production targets.

例如，Freyr公司於2024年夏季停止了電池生產，Northvolt正在裁員並縮小生產目標。

Meanwhile, CATL is expanding as quickly as it can, with many news in the last few months indicating how precious of a partner to global tech and industrial corporations and government CATL has become:

同時，寧德時代正在盡快擴張，過去幾個月的許多新聞表明，寧德時代已成為全球科技和工業企業以及政府的寶貴合作夥伴：

Past Results

過去的結果

For now, a lot of CATL attention is focused on EVs, and improving battery technology through tweaking the manufacturing process of lithium-ion batteries.

目前，寧德時代的大部分注意力都集中在電動車上，並透過調整鋰離子電池的製造流程來改進電池技術。

Previously, the industry was expected to switch as soon as possible to solid-state batteries, due to their higher energy density, quicker charge, and better safety profile (no electrolyte that can catch fire).

先前，業界預計將盡快轉向固態電池，因為固態電池具有更高的能量密度、更快的充電速度和更好的安全性（沒有可能著火的電解質）。

Future domination by solid-state batteries might not be so clear cut, since CATL released a new lithium battery with a honeycomb design that makes it a lot denser and durable.

固態電池未來的主導地位可能不會那麼明顯，因為寧德時代發布了一款採用蜂巢設計的新型鋰電池，使其密度更大、更耐用。

This is the key behind the announcement by CATL of a new LFP (lithium-iron-phosphate) battery that can add 600km of range in just 10 minutes. In total the driving range could be above 1,000 km (600 miles), totally removing all “anxiety range” for future EV owners.

這就是CATL宣布推出新型LFP（磷酸鐵鋰）電池背後的關鍵，該電池只需10分鐘即可增加600公里的續航里程。總的行駛里程可能超過 1,000 公里（600 英里），完全消除了未來電動車車主的所有「焦慮範圍」。

Overall, this means 1 km worth of range can be charged every second and a full charge for 1,000km will take 16.6 minutes.

總體而言，這意味著每秒可充電 1 公里的續航里程，充滿電 1,000 公里需要 16.6 分鐘。

Until recently, it was somewhat of a consensus that in the long run, lithium-ion was not the right chemistry for utility-scale energy storage. This is because lithium-ion is expensive, and degrades too quickly, usually losing performance badly in more or less 10 years.

直到最近，人們還達成了某種共識，即從長遠來看，鋰離子並不是適合公用事業規模儲能的化學物質。這是因為鋰離子電池價格昂貴，而且降解速度太快，通常在大約 10 年內就會嚴重喪失效能。

So, when CATL revealed the performance of its TENER containerized battery system, the whole battery industry was shocked.

所以，當寧德時代公佈其TENER貨櫃式電池系統的性能時，整個電池產業都震驚了。

The pilot project using the TENER has demonstrated zero degradation in capacity after a full 5 years of operation.

使用 TENER 的試點計畫在運行整整 5 年後證明容量為零。

The honeycomb structure is likely becoming a central part of CATL's battery architecture. While not explicitly stated as such, this is probably what CATL referred to when talking about TENER:

蜂巢結構很可能成為寧德時代電池架構的核心部分。雖然沒有明確說明，但這可能是 CATL 在談論 TENER 時所指的內容：

To realize TENER, the company used an SEI with biomimetic ion channels and high stability, together with self-assembled electrolyte technologies creating what it calls an “ageless energy storage system.

為了實現 TENER，該公司使用了具有仿生離子通道和高穩定性的 SEI，以及自組裝電解質技術，創造了所謂的「永恆的能量儲存系統」。

Based on state-of-the-

基於現狀-