为什么您应该避免今年可能首次亮相的模因硬币ETF

苏尔托，莫特利·傻瓜

The launch of spot Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) ETFs last January was a smashing success. In just 12 months, these ETFs attracted over $100 billion from investors, quickly becoming a favorite vehicle for individuals, hedge funds, and institutional investors to gain exposure to the crypto asset class.

去年1月，现场比特币（Crypto：BTC）ETF的推出取得了成功。在短短的12个月内，这些ETF吸引了投资者超过1000亿美元的资金，很快成为个人，对冲基金和机构投资者最喜欢的车辆，以获得加密资产类别的风险。

This success has prompted fund managers to flood the SEC with applications for new spot crypto ETFs, including some tracking meme coins. As a result, it's becoming increasingly likely that a meme coin ETF will debut in 2025. While you may be tempted to invest, here are several reasons why that would be a colossal mistake.

这一成功促使基金经理向SEC淹没了SEC的新位置加密ETF的申请，包括一些跟踪模因硬币。结果，模因硬币ETF将在2025年首次亮相。尽管您可能很想投资，但这是为什么这将是巨大错误的几个原因。

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The false promise of triple-digit returns

三位数回报的错误承诺

Let's be honest. The primary reason many people would be tempted to invest in a meme coin ETF is to gain access to triple-digit returns. Meme coins are known for their potential to skyrocket in value, and if you look at how some of these meme coins perform during very short periods, it's hard not to be impressed.

老实说。许多人很想投资模因硬币ETF的主要原因是获得三位数的回报。模因硬币以其价值飙升的潜力而闻名，如果您查看其中一些模因硬币在很短的时间内的表现，那么很难不留下深刻的印象。

But here's the thing: these returns are rarely able to be replicated over a long-term time horizon. Meme coins, by their nature, are meant to be ephemeral and transient. They attempt to capitalize on new viral trends and are not meant to be long-term investments.

但这是事实：这些回报很少能在长期的时间范围内复制。从本质上讲，模因硬币是短暂的和短暂的。他们试图利用新的病毒趋势，而不是长期投资。

Moreover, since viral trends come into and out of circulation very quickly, it's nearly impossible to predict which meme coins are going to perform well at any point in time. One quarter, it might be dog-themed meme coins. The next quarter, it might be cat-themed or frog-themed meme coins.

此外，由于病毒趋势很快就会出现和流通，因此几乎不可能预测哪种模因硬币在任何时间点都会表现良好。四分之一，它可能是以狗为主题的模因硬币。下一个季度，它可能是以猫为主题的或以青蛙为主题的模因硬币。

As a cautionary tale, consider the case of Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE). After a brief, momentary spike in value during the crypto market bull market rally in 2020-21, it has been a huge disappointment. This year, for example, Dogecoin is down 20% -- and that's even with "DOGE" making news headlines literally every single day. So, even though some analysts now give a Dogecoin ETF a 74% chance of being approved this year, this is one ETF that I would definitely avoid.

作为一个警示性的故事，请考虑Dogecoin（加密：Doge）的情况。在2020 - 21年加密市场牛市集会上进行了短暂的，瞬时的价值飙升之后，这令人失望。例如，今年，Dogecoin下跌了20％ - 即使是“ Doge”，每天都会成为新闻头条新闻。因此，尽管现在有些分析师为Dogecoin ETF提供了74％的批准机会，但这是我绝对可以避免的ETF。

The hidden risks of meme coins

模因硬币的隐藏风险

While ETFs are highly regulated, meme coins are not. And that creates the potential for a lot of bad behavior in the crypto market. Many meme coins, unfortunately, are pump-and-dump schemes. Some are outright scams. And even meme coins launched by celebrities and high-profile public figures can collapse in value overnight, leading to a lot of awkward questions later.

尽管ETF受到高度调节，但模因硬币却不是。这创造了在加密货币市场中产生许多不良行为的潜力。不幸的是，许多模因硬币都是泵送和降低的方案。有些是彻底的骗局。即使是名人和备受瞩目的公众人物发起的模因硬币也可能在一夜之间价值崩溃，后来导致许多尴尬的问题。

Making matters even more difficult, there are literally thousands of new meme coins being created every day, so it's almost impossible to vet all of them. It's really easy to start a new cryptocurrency, but much harder to come up with a genuinely valuable new coin.

使事情变得更加困难，每天都有成千上万的新模因硬币，因此几乎不可能审查所有这些硬币。开始新的加密货币真的很容易，但是很难想出真正有价值的新硬币。

If you're an optimist, this is a problem that the ETF application process should solve. In theory, only the safest, most trusted, and most liquid meme coins will even be considered for an ETF. And only the best of the best will ever get a seal of approval from the SEC.

如果您是乐观主义者，这是ETF申请过程应解决的问题。从理论上讲，只有最安全，最受信任和大多数液体模因硬币才能考虑ETF。只有最好的最好的才能获得SEC的认可。

But remember what I told you about meme coins being ephemeral and transient? By the time a meme coin ETF finally starts trading, it will be almost impossible to make any serious money from it. The moment of virality will likely have already passed on Day One, and it will be too late for investors who blinked and missed it.

但是还记得我告诉您的关于模因硬币是短暂和瞬态的内容吗？到模因硬币ETF终于开始交易时，几乎不可能从中赚钱。病毒性的时刻可能已经在第一天已经过去了，对于那些眨眼和错过它的投资者来说，为时已晚。

We're already seeing a version of this phenomenon now, as meme coins migrate from decentralized crypto exchanges to centralized crypto exchanges such as Coinbase Global. By the time this process happens, investors have already missed out on a tremendous amount of upside.

我们现在已经看到了这种现象的版本，因为模因硬币从分散的加密交易所迁移到集中的加密交易所，例如Coinbase Global。到这个过程发生时，投资者已经错过了大量上涨空间。

PEPE / TetherUS chart by TradingView

Pepe / Tetherus图表by TradingView

Just take a look at this chart for Pepe (CRYPTO: PEPE), the popular frog-themed meme coin with a $4 billion market cap. The coin launched in mid-2023, but Coinbase only listed this meme coin for trading in November of last year. By that time, it was already too late. You would have already missed out on Pepe's remarkable upward trajectory that made it so popular with investors. If a Pepe-based ETF somehow gets approved this year, I wouldn't touch it with a ten-foot pole.

只需查看Pepe（Crypto：Pepe）的这张图表，这是一个以青蛙为主题的模因硬币，具有40亿美元的市值。硬币于2023年中推出，但Coinbase仅列出了该模因硬币，用于去年11月进行交易。到那时，已经太晚了。您可能已经错过了Pepe的出色上升轨迹，这使得它在投资者中如此受欢迎。如果今年以某种方式获得了基于PEPE的ETF，我不会用十英尺的杆触摸它。

99% of people lose money with meme coins

99％的人用模因硬币亏本

As a result, is it really any surprise that 99% of people lose money with meme coins? It's hard enough to pick the right meme coin. But you also have to get in early enough to make any real money. And you have to get out fast enough to avoid being turned into exit liquidity by unscrupulous insiders.

结果，99％的人用模因硬币损失钱真的很惊讶吗？很难选择正确的模因硬币。但是您还必须足够早点才能赚钱。而且，您必须足够快地走出来，以免被不道德的内部人员变成出口流动性。

Thus, if you are hoping that a dog-themed meme coin ETF will turn you into a crypto

因此，如果您希望以狗为主题的模因硬币ETF将您变成加密货币