為什麼您應該避免今年可能首次亮相的模因硬幣ETF

蘇爾托，莫特利·傻瓜

The launch of spot Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) ETFs last January was a smashing success. In just 12 months, these ETFs attracted over $100 billion from investors, quickly becoming a favorite vehicle for individuals, hedge funds, and institutional investors to gain exposure to the crypto asset class.

去年1月，現場比特幣（Crypto：BTC）ETF的推出取得了成功。在短短的12個月內，這些ETF吸引了投資者超過1000億美元的資金，很快成為個人，對沖基金和機構投資者最喜歡的車輛，以獲得加密資產類別的風險。

This success has prompted fund managers to flood the SEC with applications for new spot crypto ETFs, including some tracking meme coins. As a result, it's becoming increasingly likely that a meme coin ETF will debut in 2025. While you may be tempted to invest, here are several reasons why that would be a colossal mistake.

這一成功促使基金經理向SEC淹沒了SEC的新位置加密ETF的申請，包括一些跟踪模因硬幣。結果，模因硬幣ETF將在2025年首次亮相。儘管您可能很想投資，但這是為什麼這將是巨大錯誤的幾個原因。

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The false promise of triple-digit returns

三位數回報的錯誤承諾

Let's be honest. The primary reason many people would be tempted to invest in a meme coin ETF is to gain access to triple-digit returns. Meme coins are known for their potential to skyrocket in value, and if you look at how some of these meme coins perform during very short periods, it's hard not to be impressed.

老實說。許多人很想投資模因硬幣ETF的主要原因是獲得三位數的回報。模因硬幣以其價值飆升的潛力而聞名，如果您查看其中一些模因硬幣在很短的時間內的表現，那麼很難不留下深刻的印象。

But here's the thing: these returns are rarely able to be replicated over a long-term time horizon. Meme coins, by their nature, are meant to be ephemeral and transient. They attempt to capitalize on new viral trends and are not meant to be long-term investments.

但這是事實：這些回報很少能在長期的時間範圍內復制。從本質上講，模因硬幣是短暫的和短暫的。他們試圖利用新的病毒趨勢，而不是長期投資。

Moreover, since viral trends come into and out of circulation very quickly, it's nearly impossible to predict which meme coins are going to perform well at any point in time. One quarter, it might be dog-themed meme coins. The next quarter, it might be cat-themed or frog-themed meme coins.

此外，由於病毒趨勢很快就會出現和流通，因此幾乎不可能預測哪種模因硬幣在任何時間點都會表現良好。四分之一，它可能是以狗為主題的模因硬幣。下一個季度，它可能是以貓為主題的或以青蛙為主題的模因硬幣。

As a cautionary tale, consider the case of Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE). After a brief, momentary spike in value during the crypto market bull market rally in 2020-21, it has been a huge disappointment. This year, for example, Dogecoin is down 20% -- and that's even with "DOGE" making news headlines literally every single day. So, even though some analysts now give a Dogecoin ETF a 74% chance of being approved this year, this is one ETF that I would definitely avoid.

作為一個警示性的故事，請考慮Dogecoin（加密：Doge）的情況。在2020 - 21年加密市場牛市集會上進行了短暫的，瞬時的價值飆升之後，這令人失望。例如，今年，Dogecoin下跌了20％ - 即使是“ Doge”，每天都會成為新聞頭條新聞。因此，儘管現在有些分析師為Dogecoin ETF提供了74％的批准機會，但這是我絕對可以避免的ETF。

The hidden risks of meme coins

模因硬幣的隱藏風險

While ETFs are highly regulated, meme coins are not. And that creates the potential for a lot of bad behavior in the crypto market. Many meme coins, unfortunately, are pump-and-dump schemes. Some are outright scams. And even meme coins launched by celebrities and high-profile public figures can collapse in value overnight, leading to a lot of awkward questions later.

儘管ETF受到高度調節，但模因硬幣卻不是。這創造了在加密貨幣市場中產生許多不良行為的潛力。不幸的是，許多模因硬幣都是泵送和降低的方案。有些是徹底的騙局。即使是名人和備受矚目的公眾人物發起的模因硬幣也可能在一夜之間價值崩潰，後來導致許多尷尬的問題。

Making matters even more difficult, there are literally thousands of new meme coins being created every day, so it's almost impossible to vet all of them. It's really easy to start a new cryptocurrency, but much harder to come up with a genuinely valuable new coin.

使事情變得更加困難，每天都有成千上萬的新模因硬幣，因此幾乎不可能審查所有這些硬幣。開始新的加密貨幣真的很容易，但是很難想出真正有價值的新硬幣。

If you're an optimist, this is a problem that the ETF application process should solve. In theory, only the safest, most trusted, and most liquid meme coins will even be considered for an ETF. And only the best of the best will ever get a seal of approval from the SEC.

如果您是樂觀主義者，這是ETF申請過程應解決的問題。從理論上講，只有最安全，最受信任和大多數液體模因硬幣才能考慮ETF。只有最好的最好的才能獲得SEC的認可。

But remember what I told you about meme coins being ephemeral and transient? By the time a meme coin ETF finally starts trading, it will be almost impossible to make any serious money from it. The moment of virality will likely have already passed on Day One, and it will be too late for investors who blinked and missed it.

但是還記得我告訴您的關於模因硬幣是短暫和瞬態的內容嗎？到模因硬幣ETF終於開始交易時，幾乎不可能從中賺錢。病毒性的時刻可能已經在第一天已經過去了，對於那些眨眼和錯過它的投資者來說，為時已晚。

We're already seeing a version of this phenomenon now, as meme coins migrate from decentralized crypto exchanges to centralized crypto exchanges such as Coinbase Global. By the time this process happens, investors have already missed out on a tremendous amount of upside.

我們現在已經看到了這種現象的版本，因為模因硬幣從分散的加密交易所遷移到集中的加密交易所，例如Coinbase Global。到這個過程發生時，投資者已經錯過了大量上漲空間。

PEPE / TetherUS chart by TradingView

Pepe / Tetherus圖表by TradingView

Just take a look at this chart for Pepe (CRYPTO: PEPE), the popular frog-themed meme coin with a $4 billion market cap. The coin launched in mid-2023, but Coinbase only listed this meme coin for trading in November of last year. By that time, it was already too late. You would have already missed out on Pepe's remarkable upward trajectory that made it so popular with investors. If a Pepe-based ETF somehow gets approved this year, I wouldn't touch it with a ten-foot pole.

只需查看Pepe（Crypto：Pepe）的這張圖表，這是一個以青蛙為主題的模因硬幣，具有40億美元的市值。硬幣於2023年中推出，但Coinbase僅列出了該模因硬幣，用於去年11月進行交易。到那時，已經太晚了。您可能已經錯過了Pepe的出色上升軌跡，這使得它在投資者中如此受歡迎。如果今年以某種方式獲得了基於PEPE的ETF，我不會用十英尺的桿觸摸它。

99% of people lose money with meme coins

99％的人用模因硬幣虧本

As a result, is it really any surprise that 99% of people lose money with meme coins? It's hard enough to pick the right meme coin. But you also have to get in early enough to make any real money. And you have to get out fast enough to avoid being turned into exit liquidity by unscrupulous insiders.

結果，99％的人用模因硬幣損失錢真的很驚訝嗎？很難選擇正確的模因硬幣。但是您還必須足夠早點才能賺錢。而且，您必須足夠快地走出來，以免被不道德的內部人員變成出口流動性。

Thus, if you are hoping that a dog-themed meme coin ETF will turn you into a crypto

因此，如果您希望以狗為主題的模因硬幣ETF將您變成加密貨幣