Arthur Hayes 预测 2025 年 1 月 20 日唐纳德·特朗普总统就职典礼将导致加密货币市场大幅抛售

BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 预测，加密货币市场将出现重大抛售，这与 2025 年 1 月 20 日唐纳德·特朗普总统就职典礼有关

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has predicted a major sell-off in the crypto markets, which he believes will be triggered by Donald Trump's presidential inauguration on Jan. 20, 2025. In his recent blog post, titled “Trump Truth,” Hayes expressed concerns about the disparity between investor expectations and the actual timeline for implementing policy changes.

BitMEX 联合创始人阿瑟·海耶斯 (Arthur Hayes) 预测，加密货币市场将出现大规模抛售，他认为唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 于 2025 年 1 月 20 日就职总统将引发这种抛售。在他最近的博客文章中，题为“特朗普真相”海耶斯对投资者预期与实施政策变化的实际时间表之间的差距表示担忧。

Hayes cautioned that Trump's administration will need time to enact significant crypto policies. “The market believes that Trump and his people can immediately achieve economic and political miracles,” Hayes wrote in the blog post, published on CoinChapter. He predicted that a likely correction in cryptocurrency prices will follow as the market realizes the slower pace of change.

海耶斯警告说，特朗普政府需要时间来制定重要的加密货币政策。海耶斯在 CoinChapter 上发表的博文中写道：“市场相信特朗普和他的人民能够立即实现经济和政治奇迹。”他预测，随着市场意识到变化速度放缓，加密货币价格可能会随之调整。

Hayes explained that while there is optimism surrounding Trump's presidency, implementing substantial crypto policies will face delays. He predicted that this mismatch between expectations and reality will lead to a sharp sell-off.

海耶斯解释说，尽管人们对特朗普的总统任期感到乐观，但实施实质性的加密货币政策将面临延误。他预测，预期与现实之间的不匹配将导致大幅抛售。

“The market will instantly wake up to the reality that Trump has, at best, one year to enact any policy changes on or around January 20th. This realization will lead to a vicious sell-off in crypto markets and other Trump 2.0 equity trades,” Hayes elaborated.

“市场将立即意识到特朗普最多只有一年的时间来在 1 月 20 日或前后实施任何政策变化。这种认识将导致加密货币市场和其他特朗普 2.0 股票交易的恶性抛售。”海耶斯解释道。

According to Hayes, this sell-off will precede a rebound in cryptocurrencies, which he expects to enter a recovery phase later in 2025.

Hayes 表示，这次抛售将先于加密货币反弹，他预计加密货币将在 2025 年晚些时候进入复苏阶段。

Hayes also revealed his investment fund Maelstrom's strategy for navigating potential market turbulence. The fund plans to sell some positions before Trump's inauguration, aiming to repurchase them at lower prices during 2025's first half.

海耶斯还透露了他的投资基金 Maelstrom 应对潜在市场动荡的策略。该基金计划在特朗普就职前出售部分头寸，旨在2025年上半年以较低价格回购。

“Maelstrom will be lightening up on certain positions in advance, hoping to rebuy some core positions at lower prices sometime in the first half of 2025,” Hayes noted in the blog post.

海耶斯在博文中指出：“Maelstrom 将提前减仓某些仓位，希望在 2025 年上半年的某个时候以较低的价格重新买入一些核心仓位。”

He acknowledged that the strategy carries risks but emphasized that the fund is prepared for various outcomes. “We are committed to admitting defeat if the bull market steamrolls through Jan. 20, licking our wounds, and getting back on the bull […] I will be buying dips and rips,” Hayes said.

他承认该策略存在风险，但强调该基金已为各种结果做好准备。 “如果牛市持续到 1 月 20 日，我们将承认失败，舔舐伤口，重返牛市……我将逢低买入，”海耶斯表示。

Hayes urged caution as Bitcoin surges past $100K after Trump's victory

特朗普获胜后比特币飙升至 10 万美元以上，海耶斯敦促谨慎行事

Since Trump's victory in November 2024, Bitcoin has surged past $100,000 for the first time in early December. Many analysts connected this growth to expectations of favorable crypto policies under Trump.

自特朗普于 2024 年 11 月获胜以来，比特币在 12 月初首次突破 10 万美元。许多分析师将这种增长与特朗普领导下的有利加密货币政策的预期联系起来。

However, Hayes has been urging caution, contrasting bullish predictions from firms like Matrixport, which projected a strong start for Bitcoin in 2025. Matrixport suggested that investors might regret not accumulating more BTC at current prices.

然而，Hayes 一直敦促谨慎行事，这与 Matrixport 等公司的乐观预测形成鲜明对比，Matrixport 预计比特币将在 2025 年迎来强劲开局。Matrixport 表示，投资者可能会后悔没有以当前价格积累更多比特币。

MicroStrategy rumored to pause BTC purchases

据传 MicroStrategy 将暂停 BTC 购买

On the other hand, rumors reported by Protos suggested that MicroStrategy might enter a blackout period in January 2025. This would halt the company's issuance of shares or convertible bonds used to purchase more Bitcoin, potentially impacting the market.

另一方面，Protos 报道的传言称 MicroStrategy 可能会在 2025 年 1 月进入封锁期。这将导致该公司停止发行用于购买更多比特币的股票或可转换债券，从而可能对市场产生影响。