Arthur Hayes 預測 2025 年 1 月 20 日唐納德·川普總統就職典禮將導致加密貨幣市場大幅拋售

BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 預測，加密貨幣市場將出現重大拋售，這與 2025 年 1 月 20 日唐納德·川普總統就職典禮有關

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has predicted a major sell-off in the crypto markets, which he believes will be triggered by Donald Trump's presidential inauguration on Jan. 20, 2025. In his recent blog post, titled “Trump Truth,” Hayes expressed concerns about the disparity between investor expectations and the actual timeline for implementing policy changes.

BitMEX 聯合創始人阿瑟·海耶斯(Arthur Hayes) 預測，加密貨幣市場將出現大規模拋售，他認為唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump) 於2025 年1 月20 日就職總統將引發這種拋售。

Hayes cautioned that Trump's administration will need time to enact significant crypto policies. “The market believes that Trump and his people can immediately achieve economic and political miracles,” Hayes wrote in the blog post, published on CoinChapter. He predicted that a likely correction in cryptocurrency prices will follow as the market realizes the slower pace of change.

海耶斯警告說，川普政府需要時間來制定重要的加密貨幣政策。海耶斯在 CoinChapter 上發表的部落格文章中寫道：“市場相信川普和他的人民能夠立即實現經濟和政治奇蹟。”他預測，隨著市場意識到變化速度放緩，加密貨幣價格可能會隨之調整。

Hayes explained that while there is optimism surrounding Trump's presidency, implementing substantial crypto policies will face delays. He predicted that this mismatch between expectations and reality will lead to a sharp sell-off.

海耶斯解釋說，儘管人們對川普的總統任期感到樂觀，但實施實質的加密貨幣政策將面臨延誤。他預測，預期與現實之間的不匹配將導致大幅拋售。

“The market will instantly wake up to the reality that Trump has, at best, one year to enact any policy changes on or around January 20th. This realization will lead to a vicious sell-off in crypto markets and other Trump 2.0 equity trades,” Hayes elaborated.

「市場將立即意識到川普最多只有一年的時間來在 1 月 20 日或前後實施任何政策變化。這種認識將導致加密貨幣市場和其他川普 2.0 股票交易的惡性拋售，」海耶斯解釋道。

According to Hayes, this sell-off will precede a rebound in cryptocurrencies, which he expects to enter a recovery phase later in 2025.

Hayes 表示，這次拋售將先於加密貨幣反彈，他預計加密貨幣將在 2025 年稍後進入復甦階段。

Hayes also revealed his investment fund Maelstrom's strategy for navigating potential market turbulence. The fund plans to sell some positions before Trump's inauguration, aiming to repurchase them at lower prices during 2025's first half.

海耶斯還透露了他的投資基金 Maelstrom 應對潛在市場動盪的策略。該基金計劃在川普就職前出售部分頭寸，旨在2025年上半年以較低價格回購。

“Maelstrom will be lightening up on certain positions in advance, hoping to rebuy some core positions at lower prices sometime in the first half of 2025,” Hayes noted in the blog post.

海耶斯在博文中指出，“Maelstrom 將提前減倉某些倉位，希望在 2025 年上半年的某個時候以較低的價格重新買入一些核心倉位。”

He acknowledged that the strategy carries risks but emphasized that the fund is prepared for various outcomes. “We are committed to admitting defeat if the bull market steamrolls through Jan. 20, licking our wounds, and getting back on the bull […] I will be buying dips and rips,” Hayes said.

他承認該策略存在風險，但強調該基金已為各種結果做好準備。 「如果牛市持續到 1 月 20 日，我們將承認失敗，舔舐傷口，重返牛市……我將逢低買入，」海耶斯說。

Hayes urged caution as Bitcoin surges past $100K after Trump's victory

川普獲勝後比特幣飆升至 10 萬美元以上，海耶斯敦促謹慎行事

Since Trump's victory in November 2024, Bitcoin has surged past $100,000 for the first time in early December. Many analysts connected this growth to expectations of favorable crypto policies under Trump.

自川普在 2024 年 11 月獲勝以來，比特幣在 12 月初首次突破 10 萬美元。許多分析師將這種增長與川普領導下的有利加密貨幣政策的預期聯繫起來。

However, Hayes has been urging caution, contrasting bullish predictions from firms like Matrixport, which projected a strong start for Bitcoin in 2025. Matrixport suggested that investors might regret not accumulating more BTC at current prices.

然而，Hayes 一直敦促謹慎行事，這與Matrixport 等公司的樂觀預測形成鮮明對比，Matrixport 預計比特幣將在2025 年迎來強勁開局。 。

MicroStrategy rumored to pause BTC purchases

據傳 MicroStrategy 將暫停 BTC 購買

On the other hand, rumors reported by Protos suggested that MicroStrategy might enter a blackout period in January 2025. This would halt the company's issuance of shares or convertible bonds used to purchase more Bitcoin, potentially impacting the market.

另一方面，Protos 報導的傳言稱 MicroStrategy 可能會在 2025 年 1 月進入封鎖期。