亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）预测，比特币将降至7万美元，但在其长期前景上仍然看涨

亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）对比特币的价格有不同的看法，预测比特币可能会暂时下降至70,000美元。这似乎与某些人违反直觉。

renowned for his bold predictions on Bitcoin’s price movements. As a former financial trader with deep insights into the macroeconomic landscape, Hayes often provides thought-provoking views on the future of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.

以他对比特币价格变动的大胆预测而闻名。作为对宏观经济景观有深刻见解的前金融交易员，海耶斯经常就比特币和更广泛的加密货币市场的未来发人深省的看法。

In recent times, Arthur Hayes has presented a mixed outlook on Bitcoin’s price, predicting that Bitcoin might see a temporary decline to $70K. This may seem counterintuitive to some, especially given the broader bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. However, Hayes remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects despite his short-term bearish prediction. Let’s explore the reasons behind this perspective, why he thinks Bitcoin might dip to $70K, and why he ultimately remains bullish on Bitcoin’s future.

最近，亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）对比特币的价格表现出不同的前景，预测比特币可能会暂时下降至7万美元。这对某些人来说似乎是违反直觉的，特别是考虑到围绕比特币和其他加密货币的更广泛的看涨情绪。但是，尽管海斯短期看跌了预测，但海斯仍然对比特币的长期前景保持乐观。让我们探讨这种观点背后的原因，为什么他认为比特币可能会降至7万美元，以及为什么他最终仍然对比特币的未来看涨。

The Macro Environment and Bitcoin’s Price Movements

宏观环境和比特币的价格变动

One of the key factors that Hayes considers when making his predictions is the global macroeconomic environment. In recent years, Bitcoin has become increasingly correlated with traditional financial markets, particularly during periods of global financial stress. Hayes has repeatedly highlighted that the actions of central banks, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, play a significant role in influencing Bitcoin’s price.

Hayes在做出预测时考虑的关键因素之一是全球宏观经济环境。近年来，比特币与传统金融市场越来越相关，尤其是在全球金融压力期间。海耶斯一再强调，中央银行，尤其是美国美联储的行动在影响比特币的价格方面发挥了重要作用。

In 2025, after several years of ultra-loose monetary policies, Hayes believes that central banks will eventually shift course, tightening policies to combat inflation. This tightening, according to him, could lead to a short-term dip in risk assets, including Bitcoin, as liquidity in the global financial system contracts. As a result, Bitcoin, which is often seen as a high-risk asset, could experience a decline in value, potentially dropping to around $70,000.

在2025年，在经过数年的超浮动货币政策之后，海耶斯认为，中央银行最终将改变路线，从而加强政策以打击通货膨胀。据他认为，这种收紧可能导致风险资产（包括比特币）作为全球金融体系合同中的流动性。结果，通常被视为高风险资产的比特币可能会经历价值下降，可能会下降到70,000美元左右。

Hayes’ prediction of a decline to $70,000 isn’t a reflection of his belief in Bitcoin’s fundamental value, but rather a short-term market correction triggered by these macroeconomic factors. He expects this downturn to be temporary, with Bitcoin’s value rebounding once central banks loosen monetary policies again in response to economic slowdowns or other financial crises.

海耶斯（Hayes）预测下降至70,000美元的预测并不反映他对比特币基本价值的信念，而是由这些宏观经济因素触发的短期市场校正。他希望这种低迷是暂时的，一旦中央银行再次放松了货币政策，对经济放缓或其他金融危机，比特币的价值反弹。

The Supply and Demand Dynamics of Bitcoin

比特币的供求动态

Despite his short-term caution, Hayes remains a firm believer in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition. Bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamics are key to his bullish stance. Unlike traditional fiat currencies that can be printed in unlimited amounts, Bitcoin has a hard cap of 21 million coins, making it a deflationary asset. This scarcity is one of the core reasons Hayes believes Bitcoin’s value will continue to rise over time.

尽管他短期谨慎，海耶斯仍然坚信比特币的长期价值主张。比特币的供求动力是他看涨立场的关键。与可以无限量打印的传统法定货币不同，比特币的硬帽硬币为2100万个硬币，使其成为放置资产。这种稀缺是海斯认为比特币价值随着时间而继续上升的核心原因之一。

The diminishing supply of Bitcoin is compounded by the halving event that occurs approximately every four years. In a Bitcoin halving, the block reward for miners is cut in half, effectively reducing the rate at which new bitcoins are mined. This creates additional scarcity, which could drive up demand and push prices higher over the long run. Hayes often points to Bitcoin’s history of price increases following previous halvings, suggesting that this trend will continue in the future.

比特币供应减少的供应量大约每四年发生一次的减半事件。在比特币减半的情况下，矿工的区块奖励被切成两半，有效地降低了开采新比特币的速度。这会造成额外的稀缺性，从长远来看可能会提高需求并提高价格。海耶斯经常指出比特币先前的过失后比特币的价格增加，这表明这种趋势将来会持续下去。

Moreover, as more institutional investors, hedge funds, and corporations adopt Bitcoin as a store of value or hedge against inflation, demand for the cryptocurrency is expected to rise. The narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold” continues to gain traction, and Hayes believes this trend will only accelerate, driving Bitcoin’s price higher in the years to come.

此外，随着越来越多的机构投资者，对冲基金和公司采用比特币作为抵抗通货膨胀的价值或对冲的存储，对加密货币的需求预计将增加。比特币作为“数字黄金”的叙述继续吸引人，海耶斯认为这种趋势只会加速，在未来几年中，比特币的价格更高。

Institutional Adoption and Bitcoin’s Role as a Hedge

机构采用和比特币作为对冲的角色

Institutional adoption is another reason for Hayes’ long-term bullishness. Over the last few years, a growing number of institutional investors have entered the Bitcoin market, with companies like Tesla, MicroStrategy, and Square making significant Bitcoin purchases. Additionally, institutional investment vehicles like Bitcoin futures and ETFs have made it easier for large investors to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency.

机构采用是海斯长期看涨的另一个原因。在过去的几年中，越来越多的机构投资者进入了比特币市场，特斯拉，MicroStrategy和Square等公司进行了大量的比特币购买。此外，诸如比特币期货和ETF之类的机构投资工具使大型投资者更容易获得加密货币。

As more large-scale players enter the market, the demand for Bitcoin will likely continue to grow, driving up its price. Hayes sees Bitcoin as an alternative asset class that is increasingly being embraced by institutional investors looking to diversify their portfolios and hedge against traditional financial market risks.

随着越来越多的大规模玩家进入市场，对比特币的需求可能会继续增长，从而提高其价格。海耶斯认为比特币是一种替代资产类别，越来越多地受到希望使其投资组合和对冲传统金融市场风险多样化的机构投资者所接受的。

The narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation is also gaining more attention. As central banks around the world continue their expansionary policies, printing vast amounts of fiat currency to stimulate economic growth, Bitcoin’s role as a store of value becomes more relevant. Many investors see Bitcoin as a protection against currency devaluation and hyperinflation, which could become more pronounced if inflationary pressures continue to build. Hayes points to this growing sentiment as a major factor in Bitcoin’s future price appreciation.

比特币作为抵抗通货膨胀的对冲的叙述也引起了人们的关注。随着世界各地的中央银行继续其扩张性政策，印刷大量的法定货币以刺激经济增长，比特币作为价值存储的作用变得更加相关。许多投资者将比特币视为防止货币贬值和过度通货膨胀的保护，如果通货膨胀压力继续建立，这可能会变得更加明显。海耶斯指出，这种日益增长的情绪是比特币未来价格赞赏的主要因素。

Regulatory Challenges and Their Impact on Bitcoin’s Price

监管挑战及其对比特币价格的影响

While Hayes is optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, he also acknowledges the regulatory challenges that could impact its price. Governments around the world are still grappling with how to regulate Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, and this uncertainty can create volatility in the market. Some countries, like China, have outright banned cryptocurrency trading, while others, like the United States, have introduced new regulations to govern the space.

尽管海斯对比特币的长期前景感到乐观，但他也承认可能影响其价格的监管挑战。世界各地的政府仍在努力如何规范比特币和其他加密货币，这种不确定性可能会在市场上引起波动。一些国家（例如中国）已完全禁止加密货币交易，而其他国家（如美国）也引入了新的法规来管理该空间。

Hayes believes that while regulatory challenges may cause short-term price volatility, they will ultimately lead to a more mature and regulated market. As

海耶斯认为，尽管监管挑战可能会导致短期价格波动，但最终将导致更加成熟和受监管的市场。作为