亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）預測，比特幣將降至7萬美元，但在其長期前景上仍然看漲

亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）對比特幣的價格有不同的看法，預測比特幣可能會暫時下降至70,000美元。這似乎與某些人違反直覺。

renowned for his bold predictions on Bitcoin’s price movements. As a former financial trader with deep insights into the macroeconomic landscape, Hayes often provides thought-provoking views on the future of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.

以他對比特幣價格變動的大膽預測而聞名。作為對宏觀經濟景觀有深刻見解的前金融交易員，海耶斯經常就比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場的未來發人深省的看法。

In recent times, Arthur Hayes has presented a mixed outlook on Bitcoin’s price, predicting that Bitcoin might see a temporary decline to $70K. This may seem counterintuitive to some, especially given the broader bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. However, Hayes remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects despite his short-term bearish prediction. Let’s explore the reasons behind this perspective, why he thinks Bitcoin might dip to $70K, and why he ultimately remains bullish on Bitcoin’s future.

最近，亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）對比特幣的價格表現出不同的前景，預測比特幣可能會暫時下降至7萬美元。這對某些人來說似乎是違反直覺的，特別是考慮到圍繞比特幣和其他加密貨幣的更廣泛的看漲情緒。但是，儘管海斯短期看跌了預測，但海斯仍然對比特幣的長期前景保持樂觀。讓我們探討這種觀點背後的原因，為什麼他認為比特幣可能會降至7萬美元，以及為什麼他最終仍然對比特幣的未來看漲。

The Macro Environment and Bitcoin’s Price Movements

宏觀環境和比特幣的價格變動

One of the key factors that Hayes considers when making his predictions is the global macroeconomic environment. In recent years, Bitcoin has become increasingly correlated with traditional financial markets, particularly during periods of global financial stress. Hayes has repeatedly highlighted that the actions of central banks, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, play a significant role in influencing Bitcoin’s price.

Hayes在做出預測時考慮的關鍵因素之一是全球宏觀經濟環境。近年來，比特幣與傳統金融市場越來越相關，尤其是在全球金融壓力期間。海耶斯一再強調，中央銀行，尤其是美國美聯儲的行動在影響比特幣的價格方面發揮了重要作用。

In 2025, after several years of ultra-loose monetary policies, Hayes believes that central banks will eventually shift course, tightening policies to combat inflation. This tightening, according to him, could lead to a short-term dip in risk assets, including Bitcoin, as liquidity in the global financial system contracts. As a result, Bitcoin, which is often seen as a high-risk asset, could experience a decline in value, potentially dropping to around $70,000.

在2025年，在經過數年的超浮動貨幣政策之後，海耶斯認為，中央銀行最終將改變路線，從而加強政策以打擊通貨膨脹。據他認為，這種收緊可能導致風險資產（包括比特幣）作為全球金融體系合同中的流動性。結果，通常被視為高風險資產的比特幣可能會經歷價值下降，可能會下降到70,000美元左右。

Hayes’ prediction of a decline to $70,000 isn’t a reflection of his belief in Bitcoin’s fundamental value, but rather a short-term market correction triggered by these macroeconomic factors. He expects this downturn to be temporary, with Bitcoin’s value rebounding once central banks loosen monetary policies again in response to economic slowdowns or other financial crises.

海耶斯（Hayes）預測下降至70,000美元的預測並不反映他對比特幣基本價值的信念，而是由這些宏觀經濟因素觸發的短期市場校正。他希望這種低迷是暫時的，一旦中央銀行再次放鬆了貨幣政策，對經濟放緩或其他金融危機，比特幣的價值反彈。

The Supply and Demand Dynamics of Bitcoin

比特幣的供求動態

Despite his short-term caution, Hayes remains a firm believer in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition. Bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamics are key to his bullish stance. Unlike traditional fiat currencies that can be printed in unlimited amounts, Bitcoin has a hard cap of 21 million coins, making it a deflationary asset. This scarcity is one of the core reasons Hayes believes Bitcoin’s value will continue to rise over time.

儘管他短期謹慎，海耶斯仍然堅信比特幣的長期價值主張。比特幣的供求動力是他看漲立場的關鍵。與可以無限量打印的傳統法定貨幣不同，比特幣的硬帽硬幣為2100萬個硬幣，使其成為放置資產。這種稀缺是海斯認為比特幣價值隨著時間而繼續上升的核心原因之一。

The diminishing supply of Bitcoin is compounded by the halving event that occurs approximately every four years. In a Bitcoin halving, the block reward for miners is cut in half, effectively reducing the rate at which new bitcoins are mined. This creates additional scarcity, which could drive up demand and push prices higher over the long run. Hayes often points to Bitcoin’s history of price increases following previous halvings, suggesting that this trend will continue in the future.

比特幣供應減少的供應量大約每四年發生一次的減半事件。在比特幣減半的情況下，礦工的區塊獎勵被切成兩半，有效地降低了開採新比特幣的速度。這會造成額外的稀缺性，從長遠來看可能會提高需求並提高價格。海耶斯經常指出比特幣先前的過失後比特幣的價格增加，這表明這種趨勢將來會持續下去。

Moreover, as more institutional investors, hedge funds, and corporations adopt Bitcoin as a store of value or hedge against inflation, demand for the cryptocurrency is expected to rise. The narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold” continues to gain traction, and Hayes believes this trend will only accelerate, driving Bitcoin’s price higher in the years to come.

此外，隨著越來越多的機構投資者，對沖基金和公司採用比特幣作為抵抗通貨膨脹的價值或對沖的存儲，對加密貨幣的需求預計將增加。比特幣作為“數字黃金”的敘述繼續吸引人，海耶斯認為這種趨勢只會加速，在未來幾年中，比特幣的價格更高。

Institutional Adoption and Bitcoin’s Role as a Hedge

機構採用和比特幣作為對沖的角色

Institutional adoption is another reason for Hayes’ long-term bullishness. Over the last few years, a growing number of institutional investors have entered the Bitcoin market, with companies like Tesla, MicroStrategy, and Square making significant Bitcoin purchases. Additionally, institutional investment vehicles like Bitcoin futures and ETFs have made it easier for large investors to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency.

機構採用是海斯長期看漲的另一個原因。在過去的幾年中，越來越多的機構投資者進入了比特幣市場，特斯拉，MicroStrategy和Square等公司進行了大量的比特幣購買。此外，諸如比特幣期貨和ETF之類的機構投資工具使大型投資者更容易獲得加密貨幣。

As more large-scale players enter the market, the demand for Bitcoin will likely continue to grow, driving up its price. Hayes sees Bitcoin as an alternative asset class that is increasingly being embraced by institutional investors looking to diversify their portfolios and hedge against traditional financial market risks.

隨著越來越多的大規模玩家進入市場，對比特幣的需求可能會繼續增長，從而提高其價格。海耶斯認為比特幣是一種替代資產類別，越來越多地受到希望使其投資組合和對沖傳統金融市場風險多樣化的機構投資者所接受的。

The narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation is also gaining more attention. As central banks around the world continue their expansionary policies, printing vast amounts of fiat currency to stimulate economic growth, Bitcoin’s role as a store of value becomes more relevant. Many investors see Bitcoin as a protection against currency devaluation and hyperinflation, which could become more pronounced if inflationary pressures continue to build. Hayes points to this growing sentiment as a major factor in Bitcoin’s future price appreciation.

比特幣作為抵抗通貨膨脹的對沖的敘述也引起了人們的關注。隨著世界各地的中央銀行繼續其擴張性政策，印刷大量的法定貨幣以刺激經濟增長，比特幣作為價值存儲的作用變得更加相關。許多投資者將比特幣視為防止貨幣貶值和過度通貨膨脹的保護，如果通貨膨脹壓力繼續建立，這可能會變得更加明顯。海耶斯指出，這種日益增長的情緒是比特幣未來價格讚賞的主要因素。

Regulatory Challenges and Their Impact on Bitcoin’s Price

監管挑戰及其對比特幣價格的影響

While Hayes is optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, he also acknowledges the regulatory challenges that could impact its price. Governments around the world are still grappling with how to regulate Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, and this uncertainty can create volatility in the market. Some countries, like China, have outright banned cryptocurrency trading, while others, like the United States, have introduced new regulations to govern the space.

儘管海斯對比特幣的長期前景感到樂觀，但他也承認可能影響其價格的監管挑戰。世界各地的政府仍在努力如何規範比特幣和其他加密貨幣，這種不確定性可能會在市場上引起波動。一些國家（例如中國）已完全禁止加密貨幣交易，而其他國家（如美國）也引入了新的法規來管理該空間。

Hayes believes that while regulatory challenges may cause short-term price volatility, they will ultimately lead to a more mature and regulated market. As

海耶斯認為，儘管監管挑戰可能會導致短期價格波動，但最終將導致更加成熟和受監管的市場。作為