Arthur Hayes 预测，尽管存在监管不确定性，比特币 (BTC) 仍将在 2025 年第一季度上涨

在最近的一篇博文中，连续加密企业家兼评论员 Arthur Hayes 预测，当选总统唐纳德·特朗普就职后向美国经济注入的新流动性可能会刺激比特币 (BTC) 在 2025 年第一季度上涨。

Crypto entrepreneur and commentator Arthur Hayes has predicted that fresh liquidity injections into the US economy following President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration could spur a Bitcoin (BTC) rally in Q1 2025.

加密货币企业家兼评论员 Arthur Hayes 预测，当选总统唐纳德·特朗普就职后向美国经济注入新的流动性可能会刺激比特币 (BTC) 在 2025 年第一季度上涨。

In a recent blog post, Hayes pointed to the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) plan to inject $612 billion of fresh liquidity into the economy. He suggested that this measure could compensate for any disappointments in regulatory progress and provide a boost to BTC.

海耶斯在最近的一篇博客文章中指出，美联储 (Fed) 计划向经济注入 6120 亿美元的新流动性。他表示，这一措施可以弥补监管进展方面的任何失望，并提振比特币。

"A letdown by team Trump on his proposed pro-crypto and pro-business legislation can be covered by an extremely positive dollar liquidity environment, an increase of up to $612 billion in the first quarter," Hayes wrote.

海耶斯写道：“特朗普团队对其提议的支持加密货币和支持商业立法的失望可以通过极其积极的美元流动性环境来弥补，第一季度增加了高达 6120 亿美元。”

According to Hayes, the Fed is likely to ramp up money printing after Trump's inauguration, which could propel BTC and other digital assets to a local top before a pullback. He added that market disappointment over lagging crypto regulation under Trump's administration would exacerbate the correction.

海耶斯表示，特朗普就职后，美联储可能会加大印钞力度，这可能会推动比特币和其他数字资产在回调之前达到局部最高点。他补充说，市场对特朗普政府滞后的加密货币监管感到失望，这将加剧调整。

"This will lead to a euphoric blow-off top in the second quarter for stocks, bonds, commodities and crypto," Hayes explained. "The disappointment will be palpable in crypto land as everyone expected a crypto legalization bill to pass in the first 100 days of the Trump administration."

海耶斯解释说：“这将导致股票、债券、大宗商品和加密货币在第二季度出现欣喜的飙升。” “加密货币领域的失望情绪将显而易见，因为每个人都预计加密货币合法化法案将在特朗普政府的头 100 天内通过。”

To navigate this scenario, Hayes advised traders to sell towards the end of Q1 2025 and wait for favorable liquidity conditions to return in Q3 2025. Once fresh liquidity enters the market again, he suggested it would be time for risk-seeking investors to "turn the risk dial to degen."

为了应对这种情况，海耶斯建议交易员在 2025 年第一季度末卖出，并等待 2025 年第三季度恢复有利的流动性条件。一旦新的流动性再次进入市场，他建议寻求风险的投资者“转向”风险转至德根。”