Crypto entrepreneur and commentator Arthur Hayes has predicted that fresh liquidity injections into the US economy following President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration could spur a Bitcoin (BTC) rally in Q1 2025.
In a recent blog post, Hayes pointed to the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) plan to inject $612 billion of fresh liquidity into the economy. He suggested that this measure could compensate for any disappointments in regulatory progress and provide a boost to BTC.
"A letdown by team Trump on his proposed pro-crypto and pro-business legislation can be covered by an extremely positive dollar liquidity environment, an increase of up to $612 billion in the first quarter," Hayes wrote.
According to Hayes, the Fed is likely to ramp up money printing after Trump's inauguration, which could propel BTC and other digital assets to a local top before a pullback. He added that market disappointment over lagging crypto regulation under Trump's administration would exacerbate the correction.
"This will lead to a euphoric blow-off top in the second quarter for stocks, bonds, commodities and crypto," Hayes explained. "The disappointment will be palpable in crypto land as everyone expected a crypto legalization bill to pass in the first 100 days of the Trump administration."
To navigate this scenario, Hayes advised traders to sell towards the end of Q1 2025 and wait for favorable liquidity conditions to return in Q3 2025. Once fresh liquidity enters the market again, he suggested it would be time for risk-seeking investors to "turn the risk dial to degen."
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