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BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 预测，比特币和其他加密货币市场将在今年 3 月达到顶峰，然后经历大幅调整。
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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has predicted that Bitcoin and the crypto market will reach its peak in March this year, followed by a steep correction.
BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 预测，比特币和加密货币市场将在今年 3 月达到顶峰，随后出现大幅回调。
In a Jan. 7 blog post, Hayes said his prediction is based on how he believes the US dollar liquidity environment will unfold in the first quarter of 2025, as Donald Trump prepares to enter the White House for his second term.
海耶斯在 1 月 7 日的博客文章中表示，他的预测是基于他对 2025 年第一季度美元流动性环境将如何发展的看法，当时唐纳德·特朗普正准备进入白宫进行第二个任期。
Arthur Hayes says other sources of liquidity will offset Fed quantitative tightening
阿瑟·海耶斯表示其他流动性来源将抵消美联储量化紧缩的影响
According to Hayes, US Dollar liquidity will continue to fuel optimism in the crypto market. However, he warned that recent changes in policy from the US Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department will likely influence BTC’s price trajectory in coming months.
海耶斯表示，美元流动性将继续推动加密货币市场的乐观情绪。不过，他警告称，美联储和财政部最近的政策变化可能会影响比特币未来几个月的价格走势。
Hayes believes the Federal Reserve will continue its quantitative tightening until the middle of the year at a pace of around $60 billion per month. Should this happen, it will reduce the overall liquidity in the financial system, according to the BitMEX founder. Hayes did, however, say that he is not too fazed by the potential strain on liquidity levels towards the middle of the year.
海耶斯认为，美联储将继续以每月约 600 亿美元的速度实施量化紧缩政策，直至今年年中。 BitMEX 创始人表示，如果发生这种情况，金融系统的整体流动性将会减少。不过，海耶斯确实表示，他并不太担心今年年中流动性水平的潜在压力。
“Sasa” is an essay where I explain y I think #crypto tops out in mid-Mar and then severely corrects. Until then is time to dance. https://t.co/Apt124sOjp pic.twitter.com/LKQ24GMtpq
“Sasa”是一篇文章，我在其中解释了我认为 #crypto 在 3 月中旬达到顶峰，然后进行了严格的纠正。在那之前是跳舞的时间。 https://t.co/Apt124sOjp pic.twitter.com/LKQ24GMtpq
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) January 6, 2025
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) 2025 年 1 月 6 日
This is because he believes that other sources of liquidity will offset some of the concern. He added that the Treasury will likely inject liquidity into the market, if needed, through its General Treasury Account (TGA) by spending funds rather than issuing debt.
这是因为他认为其他流动性来源将抵消部分担忧。他补充说，如果需要，财政部可能会通过其一般国库账户（TGA）通过支出资金而不是发行债务的方式向市场注入流动性。
Collectively, Hayes forecasts a $612 billion injection into the US Dollar liquidity markets by the end of March this year.
Hayes 预测，到今年 3 月底，美元流动性市场将总共注入 6120 亿美元。
Trump bump phase could end after Q1 2025
特朗普的冲击阶段可能会在 2025 年第一季度后结束
With the possible Dollar liquidity crunch, Hayes believes that the Trump pump buzz will start to fade after the first quarter of 2025. He subsequently anticipates a broader and severe crypto market correction as both fiscal and monetary support start to wane.
海耶斯认为，随着美元流动性可能出现紧缩，特朗普的炒作热潮将在 2025 年第一季度后开始消退。随后，随着财政和货币支持开始减弱，他预计加密货币市场将出现更广泛、更严重的调整。
There is also the upcoming tax season in mid-April that will likely contribute to the liquidity squeeze and knock investor sentiment, Hayes warned.
海耶斯警告说，四月中旬即将到来的纳税季节可能会导致流动性紧缩并打击投资者情绪。
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