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BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 預測，比特幣和其他加密貨幣市場將在今年 3 月達到頂峰，然後經歷大幅調整。
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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has predicted that Bitcoin and the crypto market will reach its peak in March this year, followed by a steep correction.
BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 預測，比特幣和加密貨幣市場將在今年 3 月達到頂峰，隨後出現大幅回檔。
In a Jan. 7 blog post, Hayes said his prediction is based on how he believes the US dollar liquidity environment will unfold in the first quarter of 2025, as Donald Trump prepares to enter the White House for his second term.
海耶斯在1 月7 日的部落格文章中表示，他的預測是基於他對2025 年第一季美元流動性環境將如何發展的看法，當時唐納德·川普正準備進入白宮進行第二個任期。
Arthur Hayes says other sources of liquidity will offset Fed quantitative tightening
亞瑟·海耶斯表示其他流動性來源將抵消聯準會量化緊縮的影響
According to Hayes, US Dollar liquidity will continue to fuel optimism in the crypto market. However, he warned that recent changes in policy from the US Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department will likely influence BTC’s price trajectory in coming months.
海耶斯表示，美元流動性將繼續推動加密貨幣市場的樂觀情緒。不過，他警告稱，聯準會和財政部最近的政策變化可能會影響比特幣未來幾個月的價格走勢。
Hayes believes the Federal Reserve will continue its quantitative tightening until the middle of the year at a pace of around $60 billion per month. Should this happen, it will reduce the overall liquidity in the financial system, according to the BitMEX founder. Hayes did, however, say that he is not too fazed by the potential strain on liquidity levels towards the middle of the year.
海耶斯認為，聯準會將繼續以每月約 600 億美元的速度實施量化緊縮政策，直到今年年中。 BitMEX 創辦人表示，如果發生這種情況，金融體系的整體流動性將會減少。不過，海耶斯確實表示，他並不太擔心今年年中流動性水平的潛在壓力。
“Sasa” is an essay where I explain y I think #crypto tops out in mid-Mar and then severely corrects. Until then is time to dance. https://t.co/Apt124sOjp pic.twitter.com/LKQ24GMtpq
「Sasa」是一篇文章，我在其中解釋了我認為 #crypto 在 3 月中旬達到頂峰，然後進行了嚴格的糾正。在那之前是跳舞的時間。 https://t.co/Apt124sOjp pic.twitter.com/LKQ24GMtpq
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) January 6, 2025
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) 2025 年 1 月 6 日
This is because he believes that other sources of liquidity will offset some of the concern. He added that the Treasury will likely inject liquidity into the market, if needed, through its General Treasury Account (TGA) by spending funds rather than issuing debt.
這是因為他認為其他流動性來源將抵消部分擔憂。他補充說，如果需要，財政部可能會透過其一般國庫帳戶（TGA）透過支出資金而不是發行債務的方式向市場注入流動性。
Collectively, Hayes forecasts a $612 billion injection into the US Dollar liquidity markets by the end of March this year.
Hayes 預測，到今年 3 月底，美元流動性市場將總共注入 6,120 億美元。
Trump bump phase could end after Q1 2025
川普的衝擊階段可能會在 2025 年第一季後結束
With the possible Dollar liquidity crunch, Hayes believes that the Trump pump buzz will start to fade after the first quarter of 2025. He subsequently anticipates a broader and severe crypto market correction as both fiscal and monetary support start to wane.
海耶斯認為，隨著美元流動性可能出現緊縮，川普的炒作熱潮將在2025 年第一季後開始消退。廣泛、更嚴重的調整。
There is also the upcoming tax season in mid-April that will likely contribute to the liquidity squeeze and knock investor sentiment, Hayes warned.
海耶斯警告說，四月中旬即將到來的納稅季節可能會導致流動性緊縮並打擊投資者情緒。
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