Ark Invest 对以太坊的看涨预测：到 2032 年 ETH 能否达到 166,000 美元？

Ark Invest 的 Cathie Wood 对以太坊 (ETH) 做出了看涨预测，预计到 2032 年，其市值将超过 20 万亿美元，每个代币的潜在价格目标将超过 166,000 美元。以多功能性和能源效率而闻名的以太坊被视为核心组成部分Web3 运动的目标是用去中心化应用程序颠覆中心化平台。然而，美国证券交易委员会最近对以太坊作为证券的立场以及对现货 ETF 的拒绝可能会在短期内阻碍其价格升值。

Ark Invest's Bullish Predictions for Ethereum: A Comprehensive Analysis

方舟投资对以太坊的看涨预测：综合分析

Earlier this year, Cathie Wood, the renowned investor and CEO of Ark Invest, made waves in the cryptocurrency community by forecasting a meteoric rise in Bitcoin's value, reaching $1.5 million by 2027. However, Wood's bullish outlook extended beyond Bitcoin, encompassing a particularly significant prediction for Ethereum. In Ark Invest's "Big Ideas" presentation early last year, Wood asserted that Ethereum's market capitalization could soar above $20 trillion by 2032, necessitating a token price exceeding $166,000. The question lingers: can Ethereum's price genuinely ascend by over 5,000% to meet this ambitious target?

今年早些时候，Ark Invest 的著名投资者兼首席执行官 Cathie Wood 预测比特币的价值将迅速上涨，到 2027 年将达到 150 万美元，从而在加密货币界引起轰动。然而，Wood 的看涨前景不仅仅局限于比特币，还包括一个特别重要的因素：对以太坊的预测。在 Ark Invest 去年年初的“大创意”演讲中，伍德断言，到 2032 年，以太坊的市值可能飙升至 20 万亿美元以上，从而使代币价格超过 166,000 美元。问题仍然存在：以太坊的价格真的可以上涨 5,000% 以上来实现这一雄心勃勃的目标吗？

Distinguishing Ethereum from Bitcoin

以太坊与比特币的区别

Ethereum stands as the preeminent cryptocurrency operating on the open-source Ethereum Network. It differs from Bitcoin in two fundamental aspects. Firstly, while Bitcoin's blockchain solely facilitates the mining of Bitcoin tokens, the Ethereum Network empowers developers to create their own tokens, decentralized applications (dApps), and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). This versatility positions Ethereum as a pivotal component of the Web3 movement, aiming to disrupt centralized app platforms such as Apple's App Store and Alphabet's Google Play with decentralized applications and payment methods.

以太坊是在开源以太坊网络上运行的卓越加密货币。它在两个基本方面与比特币不同。首先，虽然比特币的区块链仅促进比特币代币的开采，但以太坊网络使开发人员能够创建自己的代币、去中心化应用程序（dApp）和不可替代代币（NFT）。这种多功能性使以太坊成为 Web3 运动的关键组成部分，旨在通过去中心化应用程序和支付方式颠覆 Apple 的 App Store 和 Alphabet 的 Google Play 等集中式应用程序平台。

Secondly, Ethereum's energy consumption during mining is significantly lower compared to Bitcoin. Previously, the Ethereum Network utilized the same energy-intensive proof of work (PoW) mining method as Bitcoin. However, in September 2022, it transitioned to the more energy-efficient proof of stake (PoS) method. This transition, known as The Merge, reduced the network's total mining energy consumption by an astonishing 99.95%. Ethereum proponents maintain that this upgrade will facilitate the expansion of the Ethereum Network and support the development of more Web3 projects.

其次，与比特币相比，以太坊在挖矿过程中的能耗明显较低。此前，以太坊网络采用与比特币相同的能源密集型工作量证明（PoW）挖矿方法。然而，在 2022 年 9 月，它过渡到更节能的权益证明（PoS）方法。这种被称为“合并”的转变将网络的总挖矿能源消耗降低了惊人的 99.95%。以太坊支持者认为，此次升级将有助于以太坊网络的扩展，并支持更多Web3项目的开发。

Key Catalysts for Ethereum's Growth

以太坊增长的关键催化剂

Ethereum has ascended to the position of the second-largest cryptocurrency globally, trailing only Bitcoin. Additionally, it is one of eight cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and six stablecoins from PayPal and Gemini, that have been included on the "green list" of pre-approved cryptocurrencies maintained by the New York State Department of Financial Services. This relative stability suggests the possibility of eventual approval for spot Ethereum ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

以太坊已成为全球第二大加密货币，仅次于比特币。此外，它是八种加密货币之一，包括比特币以及来自 PayPal 和 Gemini 的六种稳定币，这些货币已被列入纽约州金融服务部维护的预先批准的加密货币“绿名单”中。这种相对稳定性表明现货以太坊 ETF 最终有可能获得美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 的批准。

However, the SEC recently reiterated its stance that Bitcoin remains the sole cryptocurrency classifiable as a commodity rather than a security, due to its continued use of the PoW method, analogous to the physical mining of precious metals. The SEC characterized the PoS method, despite its environmental benefits, as rendering cryptocurrencies that employ it more akin to derivatives contracts, positioning Ethereum closer to a security than a commodity.

然而，美国证券交易委员会最近重申了其立场，即比特币仍然是唯一可归类为商品而非证券的加密货币，因为它继续使用 PoW 方法，类似于贵金属的实物开采。尽管 PoS 方法具有环境效益，但美国证券交易委员会将其描述为使采用该方法的加密货币更类似于衍生品合约，使以太坊更接近于证券而不是商品。

Furthermore, the SEC has recently sought additional information from the Ethereum Foundation and expressed its commitment to reclassifying Ethereum and other Ethereum tokens as securities. This position implies that the approval of spot ETFs for Ethereum, which are more commonly valued based on spot prices for commodities, is unlikely in the immediate future.

此外，美国证券交易委员会最近向以太坊基金会寻求更多信息，并表示致力于将以太坊和其他以太坊代币重新归类为证券。这一立场意味着，以太坊现货 ETF 在不久的将来不太可能获得批准，而以太坊 ETF 通常根据大宗商品现货价格进行估值。

Despite these regulatory challenges, Ethereum's periodic burning of tokens could mitigate price volatility in the near term. Moreover, upcoming upgrades to the Ethereum Network are expected to enhance its efficiency in facilitating financial transactions and fostering the development of decentralized tokens and applications. Ethereum could gain broader acceptance as a payment option, with more companies integrating support for ether, the native currency of the Ethereum blockchain. Institutional investors may also increase their holdings of Ethereum, albeit at a potentially slower pace compared to Bitcoin due to the absence of accessible spot ETFs.

尽管存在这些监管挑战，以太坊定期销毁代币可能会在短期内缓解价格波动。此外，以太坊网络即将进行的升级预计将提高其促进金融交易和促进去中心化代币和应用程序开发的效率。随着越来越多的公司整合对以太坊（以太坊区块链的原生货币）的支持，以太坊作为一种支付选项可能会获得更广泛的接受。机构投资者也可能会增加以太坊的持有量，尽管由于缺乏可用的现货 ETF，其速度可能比比特币慢。

Assessing Wood's Optimistic Prediction

评估伍德的乐观预测

Investors should approach Wood's $166,000 price target with caution. Wood has a history of inaccurate predictions, with her firm's flagship Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) underperforming the S&P 500 by a significant margin over the past five years. Moreover, Ark's involvement in its own Ethereum futures ETF and efforts to secure approval for a spot Ethereum ETF raise questions about the objectivity of Wood's opinion.

投资者应谨慎对待伍德 166,000 美元的目标价。伍德有不准确预测的历史，她公司的旗舰方舟创新 ETF (ARKK) 在过去五年中的表现大幅落后于标准普尔 500 指数。此外，Ark 参与自己的以太坊期货 ETF 以及为获得现货以太坊 ETF 批准而做出的努力引发了人们对伍德观点客观性的质疑。

Nevertheless, Wood maintains a firm belief that the expansion of Ethereum's developer base and its potential to "displace many traditional financial services" and "take share from existing financial intermediaries" will propel its price towards her ambitious target of $166,000. While I personally believe that Ethereum may fall short of this lofty valuation in 2032, it has the potential to stabilize and appreciate over the next several years if the Ethereum Foundation continues to upgrade its network and maintain its competitive edge against Bitcoin.

尽管如此，伍德仍然坚信，以太坊开发者基础的扩大及其“取代许多传统金融服务”和“从现有金融中介机构中获取份额”的潜力将推动其价格向她设定的 166,000 美元的雄心勃勃的目标迈进。虽然我个人认为，到 2032 年，以太坊的估值可能会达不到这一高位，但如果以太坊基金会继续升级其网络并保持其相对于比特币的竞争优势，那么它有可能在未来几年内稳定并升值。