Ark Invest 對以太坊的看漲預測：到 2032 年 ETH 能否達到 166,000 美元？

Ark Invest 的Cathie Wood 對以太坊(ETH) 做出了看漲預測，預計到2032 年，其市值將超過20 兆美元，每個代幣的潛在價格目標將超過166,000 美元。效率而聞名的以太坊被視為核心組成部分Web3 運動的目標是用去中心化應用程式顛覆中心化平台。然而，美國證券交易委員會最近對以太坊作為證券的立場以及對現貨 ETF 的拒絕可能會在短期內阻礙其價格升值。

Ark Invest's Bullish Predictions for Ethereum: A Comprehensive Analysis

方舟投資對以太坊的看漲預測：綜合分析

Earlier this year, Cathie Wood, the renowned investor and CEO of Ark Invest, made waves in the cryptocurrency community by forecasting a meteoric rise in Bitcoin's value, reaching $1.5 million by 2027. However, Wood's bullish outlook extended beyond Bitcoin, encompassing a particularly significant prediction for Ethereum. In Ark Invest's "Big Ideas" presentation early last year, Wood asserted that Ethereum's market capitalization could soar above $20 trillion by 2032, necessitating a token price exceeding $166,000. The question lingers: can Ethereum's price genuinely ascend by over 5,000% to meet this ambitious target?

今年早些時候，Ark Invest 的著名投資者兼執行長Cathie Wood 預測比特幣的價值將迅速上漲，到2027 年將達到150 萬美元，從而在加密貨幣界引起轟動。僅限於比特幣，還包括一個特別重要的因素：對以太坊的預測。在 Ark Invest 去年年初的「大創意」演講中，伍德斷言，到 2032 年，以太坊的市值可能飆升至 20 兆美元以上，從而使代幣價格超過 166,000 美元。問題仍然存在：以太坊的價格真的可以上漲 5,000% 以上來實現這個雄心勃勃的目標嗎？

Distinguishing Ethereum from Bitcoin

以太坊與比特幣的區別

Ethereum stands as the preeminent cryptocurrency operating on the open-source Ethereum Network. It differs from Bitcoin in two fundamental aspects. Firstly, while Bitcoin's blockchain solely facilitates the mining of Bitcoin tokens, the Ethereum Network empowers developers to create their own tokens, decentralized applications (dApps), and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). This versatility positions Ethereum as a pivotal component of the Web3 movement, aiming to disrupt centralized app platforms such as Apple's App Store and Alphabet's Google Play with decentralized applications and payment methods.

以太坊是在開源以太坊網路上運行的卓越加密貨幣。它在兩個基本方面與比特幣不同。首先，雖然比特幣的區塊鏈僅促進比特幣代幣的開採，但以太坊網路使開發人員能夠創建自己的代幣、去中心化應用程式（dApp）和不可替代代幣（NFT）。這種多功能性使以太坊成為 Web3 運動的關鍵組成部分，旨在透過去中心化應用程式和支付方式顛覆 Apple 的 App Store 和 Alphabet 的 Google Play 等集中式應用程式平台。

Secondly, Ethereum's energy consumption during mining is significantly lower compared to Bitcoin. Previously, the Ethereum Network utilized the same energy-intensive proof of work (PoW) mining method as Bitcoin. However, in September 2022, it transitioned to the more energy-efficient proof of stake (PoS) method. This transition, known as The Merge, reduced the network's total mining energy consumption by an astonishing 99.95%. Ethereum proponents maintain that this upgrade will facilitate the expansion of the Ethereum Network and support the development of more Web3 projects.

其次，與比特幣相比，以太坊在挖礦過程中的能耗明顯較低。此前，以太坊網路採用與比特幣相同的能源密集型工作量證明（PoW）挖礦方法。然而，在 2022 年 9 月，它過渡到更節能的權益證明（PoS）方法。這種被稱為「合併」的轉變將網路的總挖礦能源消耗降低了驚人的 99.95%。以太坊支持者認為，此次升級將有助於以太坊網路的擴展，並支援更多Web3專案的開發。

Key Catalysts for Ethereum's Growth

以太坊成長的關鍵催化劑

Ethereum has ascended to the position of the second-largest cryptocurrency globally, trailing only Bitcoin. Additionally, it is one of eight cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and six stablecoins from PayPal and Gemini, that have been included on the "green list" of pre-approved cryptocurrencies maintained by the New York State Department of Financial Services. This relative stability suggests the possibility of eventual approval for spot Ethereum ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

以太坊已成為全球第二大加密貨幣，僅次於比特幣。此外，它是八種加密貨幣之一，包括比特幣以及來自 PayPal 和 Gemini 的六種穩定幣，這些貨幣已被列入紐約州金融服務部維護的預先批准的加密貨幣「綠名單」中。這種相對穩定性表明現貨以太坊 ETF 最終有可能獲得美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的批准。

However, the SEC recently reiterated its stance that Bitcoin remains the sole cryptocurrency classifiable as a commodity rather than a security, due to its continued use of the PoW method, analogous to the physical mining of precious metals. The SEC characterized the PoS method, despite its environmental benefits, as rendering cryptocurrencies that employ it more akin to derivatives contracts, positioning Ethereum closer to a security than a commodity.

然而，美國證券交易委員會最近重申了其立場，即比特幣仍然是唯一可歸類為商品而非證券的加密貨幣，因為它繼續使用 PoW 方法，類似於貴金屬的實體開採。儘管 PoS 方法具有環境效益，但美國證券交易委員會將其描述為使採用該方法的加密貨幣更類似於衍生性合約，使以太坊更接近證券而不是商品。

Furthermore, the SEC has recently sought additional information from the Ethereum Foundation and expressed its commitment to reclassifying Ethereum and other Ethereum tokens as securities. This position implies that the approval of spot ETFs for Ethereum, which are more commonly valued based on spot prices for commodities, is unlikely in the immediate future.

此外，美國證券交易委員會最近向以太坊基金會尋求更多信息，並表示致力於將以太坊和其他以太坊代幣重新歸類為證券。這一立場意味著，以太坊現貨 ETF 在不久的將來不太可能獲得批准，而以太坊 ETF 通常根據大宗商品現貨價格進行估值。

Despite these regulatory challenges, Ethereum's periodic burning of tokens could mitigate price volatility in the near term. Moreover, upcoming upgrades to the Ethereum Network are expected to enhance its efficiency in facilitating financial transactions and fostering the development of decentralized tokens and applications. Ethereum could gain broader acceptance as a payment option, with more companies integrating support for ether, the native currency of the Ethereum blockchain. Institutional investors may also increase their holdings of Ethereum, albeit at a potentially slower pace compared to Bitcoin due to the absence of accessible spot ETFs.

儘管有這些監管挑戰，以太坊定期銷毀代幣可能會在短期內緩解價格波動。此外，以太坊網路即將進行的升級預計將提高其促進金融交易和促進去中心化代幣和應用程式開發的效率。隨著越來越多的公司整合對以太坊（以太坊區塊鏈的原生貨幣）的支持，以太坊作為一種支付選項可能會獲得更廣泛的接受。機構投資者也可能增加以太坊的持有量，儘管由於缺乏可用的現貨 ETF，其速度可能比比特幣慢。

Assessing Wood's Optimistic Prediction

評估伍德的樂觀預測

Investors should approach Wood's $166,000 price target with caution. Wood has a history of inaccurate predictions, with her firm's flagship Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) underperforming the S&P 500 by a significant margin over the past five years. Moreover, Ark's involvement in its own Ethereum futures ETF and efforts to secure approval for a spot Ethereum ETF raise questions about the objectivity of Wood's opinion.

投資者應謹慎對待伍德 166,000 美元的目標價。伍德有著不準確預測的歷史，她公司的旗艦方舟創新 ETF (ARKK) 在過去五年中的表現大幅落後於標準普爾 500 指數。此外，Ark 參與自己的以太坊期貨 ETF 以及為獲得現貨以太坊 ETF 批准而做出的努力引發了人們對伍德觀點客觀性的質疑。

Nevertheless, Wood maintains a firm belief that the expansion of Ethereum's developer base and its potential to "displace many traditional financial services" and "take share from existing financial intermediaries" will propel its price towards her ambitious target of $166,000. While I personally believe that Ethereum may fall short of this lofty valuation in 2032, it has the potential to stabilize and appreciate over the next several years if the Ethereum Foundation continues to upgrade its network and maintain its competitive edge against Bitcoin.

儘管如此，伍德仍然堅信，以太坊開發者基礎的擴大及其「取代許多傳統金融服務」和「從現有金融中介機構中獲取份額」的潛力將推動其價格向她設定的166,000 美元的雄心勃勃的目標邁進。雖然我個人認為，到2032 年，以太坊的估值可能會達不到這個高位，但如果以太坊基金會繼續升級其網路並保持其相對於比特幣的競爭優勢，那麼它有可能在未來幾年內穩定併升值。