根据分析，预计美国财政部将在2025年发行超过31万亿美元的债务。

这一级别的国库发行量是巨大的，占美国预计GDP的109％和M2的144％，这是对货币供应的广泛衡量。

According to recent analysis, the U.S. Treasury is expected to issue more than $31 trillion in debt in 2025. This staggering figure includes both new financing and refinancing of existing debt.

根据最近的分析，预计美国财政部将在2025年发行超过31万亿美元的债务。这个惊人的数字包括新的融资和现有债务的再融资。

While the crypto world often focuses on internal innovation, macroeconomic shifts like these can shape market momentum in profound ways. As Binance puts it, “Context matters.” And in 2025, context may be everything.

尽管加密世界通常专注于内部创新，但宏观经济的转变可以以深刻的方式影响市场动力。正如Binance所说，“上下文很重要”。在2025年，上下文可能是一切。

Why the $31 Trillion Supply Matters

为什么31万亿美元的供应很重要

To put it simply, this level of Treasury issuance is enormous—109% of the U.S.’s projected GDP and 144% of M2, a broad measure of the money supply. That’s near-record territory. With that much government debt flooding the market, one key question arises: Who’s going to buy it all?

简而言之，这一级别的国库发行量是巨大的 - 占美国GDP的109％和M2的144％，这是对货币供应的广泛衡量。那是近记录的领土。随着政府债务泛滥成灾，出现了一个关键问题：谁会全部购买？

1/ Over US$31T in Treasury Supply Expected in 2025

1/超过$ 31T的财政部供应预计在2025年

Significant financing pressure looms over the U.S. Treasury market in 2025, with expected auctions projected to surpass US$31T (including refinancing). The scale of this supply will demand close market attention. pic.twitter.com/fZqpBnKWt0

2025年，美国财政部市场上的巨大融资压力隐约可见，预计拍卖预计将超过31T（包括再融资）。该供应的规模将需要密切关注市场。 pic.twitter.com/fzqpbnkwt0

— Binance Research (@BinanceResearch) April 18, 2025

- Binance Research（@binanceresearch）2025年4月18日

Foreign investors currently hold about one-third of U.S. debt. If global demand softens—whether due to shifting geopolitics or a change in investment strategy—yields could spike. That means the U.S. government would have to offer higher interest rates to attract buyers, pushing borrowing costs up across the board.

目前，外国投资者持有美国债务的三分之一。如果全球需求会减轻（无论是由于地缘政治的转移还是投资策略的变化，那么您的菲尔德都可能会激增。这意味着美国政府将不得不提供更高的利率来吸引买家，从而全面推动借贷成本。

Even if foreign appetite stays steady, the sheer scale of supply is a structural problem. It puts pressure on rates, limits policy flexibility, and affects everything from mortgage rates to tech stocks—and yes, crypto too. In late 2023, for instance, crypto prices dipped as Treasury yields rose. It was a clear reminder that higher rates can sap liquidity and investor appetite for risk assets. That’s why this forecast matters.

即使外国食欲保持稳定，供应规模也是一个结构性问题。它给费率施加了压力，限制了政策灵活性，并影响了从抵押贷款利率到科技股的一切，是的，也是加密货币。例如，在2023年底，随着财政收益的上涨，加密货币价格下跌。很明显，提醒人们，较高的利率可以消除流动性和投资者对风险资产的需求。这就是为什么这个预测很重要的原因。

2/ Context Matters

2/上下文很重要

US$31T in issuance amounts to ~109% of projected 2025 U.S. GDP and 144% of M2. These are near-record ratios, underscoring how outsized the funding requirement truly is. pic.twitter.com.cn/R08xQDEzgW

$ 31T的发行量占预计2025 US GDP的约109％，占M2的144％。这些是近记录的比率，强调了资金要求的真正超出。 pic.twitter.com.cn/r08xqdezgw

— Binance Research (@BinanceResearch) April 18, 2025

- Binance Research（@binanceresearch）2025年4月18日

What This Could Mean for Crypto

这对加密意味着什么

Here’s the double-edged sword: If yields keep climbing due to Treasury oversupply, crypto markets could face headwinds. Investors may prefer safer options when risk-off sentiment takes over. But there’s a flip side. If policymakers respond to rising yields by turning to debt monetization—essentially printing money to cover deficits—then Bitcoin and other hard assets could shine.

这是双刃剑：如果由于供过于求的财政部，加密货币市场可能会面临逆风。当风险情绪接管时，投资者可能会更喜欢更安全的选择。但是有一个翻转的一面。如果政策制定者通过转向债务货币化来应对上升的收益率（基本上打印资金以弥补赤字），那么比特币和其他硬资产可能会大放异彩。

Why? Crypto has increasingly been viewed as a hedge against currency debasement. In a world of swelling debt and money printing, digital assets that can’t be inflated may become more attractive. We’ve seen glimpses of this already. In times of monetary easing, Bitcoin has often rallied. And with policy choices in 2025 likely tied to how the Treasury market unfolds, crypto could be directly in the crosshairs—or at the center of the opportunity.

为什么？加密货币越来越被视为避免货币贬值的对冲。在一个债务和金钱打印的世界中，无法夸大的数字资产可能会变得更具吸引力。我们已经看到了这一点。在货币放松时期，比特币经常集会。随着2025年的政策选择可能与财政市场的发展有关，加密货币可能直接在十字准线中，或者是机会的中心。

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Altcoin Buzz讨论的信息不是财务建议。这仅用于教育，娱乐和信息目的。任何信息或策略都是与作家/审阅者公认的风险承受能力水平有关的思想和观点，其风险承受能力可能与您的风险承受能力不同。由于与所提供的信息直接或间接相关的任何投资，您可能会造成的任何损失，我们概不负责。比特币和其他加密货币是高风险的投资，因此请自己勤奋。版权Altcoin Buzz Pte Ltd.