根據分析，預計美國財政部將在2025年發行超過31萬億美元的債務。

這一級別的國庫發行量是巨大的，占美國預計GDP的109％和M2的144％，這是對貨幣供應的廣泛衡量。

According to recent analysis, the U.S. Treasury is expected to issue more than $31 trillion in debt in 2025. This staggering figure includes both new financing and refinancing of existing debt.

根據最近的分析，預計美國財政部將在2025年發行超過31萬億美元的債務。這個驚人的數字包括新的融資和現有債務的再融資。

While the crypto world often focuses on internal innovation, macroeconomic shifts like these can shape market momentum in profound ways. As Binance puts it, “Context matters.” And in 2025, context may be everything.

儘管加密世界通常專注於內部創新，但宏觀經濟的轉變可以以深刻的方式影響市場動力。正如Binance所說，“上下文很重要”。在2025年，上下文可能是一切。

Why the $31 Trillion Supply Matters

為什麼31萬億美元的供應很重要

To put it simply, this level of Treasury issuance is enormous—109% of the U.S.’s projected GDP and 144% of M2, a broad measure of the money supply. That’s near-record territory. With that much government debt flooding the market, one key question arises: Who’s going to buy it all?

簡而言之，這一級別的國庫發行量是巨大的 - 占美國GDP的109％和M2的144％，這是對貨幣供應的廣泛衡量。那是近記錄的領土。隨著政府債務氾濫成災，出現了一個關鍵問題：誰會全部購買？

1/ Over US$31T in Treasury Supply Expected in 2025

1/超過$ 31T的財政部供應預計在2025年

Significant financing pressure looms over the U.S. Treasury market in 2025, with expected auctions projected to surpass US$31T (including refinancing). The scale of this supply will demand close market attention. pic.twitter.com/fZqpBnKWt0

2025年，美國財政部市場上的巨大融資壓力隱約可見，預計拍賣預計將超過31T（包括再融資）。該供應的規模將需要密切關注市場。 pic.twitter.com/fzqpbnkwt0

— Binance Research (@BinanceResearch) April 18, 2025

- Binance Research（@binanceresearch）2025年4月18日

Foreign investors currently hold about one-third of U.S. debt. If global demand softens—whether due to shifting geopolitics or a change in investment strategy—yields could spike. That means the U.S. government would have to offer higher interest rates to attract buyers, pushing borrowing costs up across the board.

目前，外國投資者持有美國債務的三分之一。如果全球需求會減輕（無論是由於地緣政治的轉移還是投資策略的變化，那麼您的菲爾德都可能會激增。這意味著美國政府將不得不提供更高的利率來吸引買家，從而全面推動借貸成本。

Even if foreign appetite stays steady, the sheer scale of supply is a structural problem. It puts pressure on rates, limits policy flexibility, and affects everything from mortgage rates to tech stocks—and yes, crypto too. In late 2023, for instance, crypto prices dipped as Treasury yields rose. It was a clear reminder that higher rates can sap liquidity and investor appetite for risk assets. That’s why this forecast matters.

即使外國食慾保持穩定，供應規模也是一個結構性問題。它給費率施加了壓力，限制了政策靈活性，並影響了從抵押貸款利率到科技股的一切，是的，也是加密貨幣。例如，在2023年底，隨著財政收益的上漲，加密貨幣價格下跌。很明顯，提醒人們，較高的利率可以消除流動性和投資者對風險資產的需求。這就是為什麼這個預測很重要的原因。

2/ Context Matters

2/上下文很重要

US$31T in issuance amounts to ~109% of projected 2025 U.S. GDP and 144% of M2. These are near-record ratios, underscoring how outsized the funding requirement truly is. pic.twitter.com.cn/R08xQDEzgW

$ 31T的發行量佔預計2025 US GDP的約109％，佔M2的144％。這些是近記錄的比率，強調了資金要求的真正超出。 pic.twitter.com.cn/r08xqdezgw

— Binance Research (@BinanceResearch) April 18, 2025

- Binance Research（@binanceresearch）2025年4月18日

What This Could Mean for Crypto

這對加密意味著什麼

Here’s the double-edged sword: If yields keep climbing due to Treasury oversupply, crypto markets could face headwinds. Investors may prefer safer options when risk-off sentiment takes over. But there’s a flip side. If policymakers respond to rising yields by turning to debt monetization—essentially printing money to cover deficits—then Bitcoin and other hard assets could shine.

這是雙刃劍：如果由於供過於求的財政部，加密貨幣市場可能會面臨逆風。當風險情緒接管時，投資者可能會更喜歡更安全的選擇。但是有一個翻轉的一面。如果政策制定者通過轉向債務貨幣化來應對上升的收益率（基本上打印資金以彌補赤字），那麼比特幣和其他硬資產可能會大放異彩。

Why? Crypto has increasingly been viewed as a hedge against currency debasement. In a world of swelling debt and money printing, digital assets that can’t be inflated may become more attractive. We’ve seen glimpses of this already. In times of monetary easing, Bitcoin has often rallied. And with policy choices in 2025 likely tied to how the Treasury market unfolds, crypto could be directly in the crosshairs—or at the center of the opportunity.

為什麼？加密貨幣越來越被視為避免貨幣貶值的對沖。在一個債務和金錢打印的世界中，無法誇大的數字資產可能會變得更具吸引力。我們已經看到了這一點。在貨幣放鬆時期，比特幣經常集會。隨著2025年的政策選擇可能與財政市場的發展有關，加密貨幣可能直接在十字準線中，或者是機會的中心。

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Altcoin Buzz討論的信息不是財務建議。這僅用於教育，娛樂和信息目的。任何信息或策略都是與作家/審閱者公認的風險承受能力水平有關的思想和觀點，其風險承受能力可能與您的風險承受能力不同。由於與所提供的信息直接或間接相關的任何投資，您可能會造成的任何損失，我們概不負責。比特幣和其他加密貨幣是高風險的投資，因此請自己勤奮。版權Altcoin Buzz Pte Ltd.