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美国总统大选已进入最后阶段,距投票仅剩20多天。结果将对加密货币行业产生重大而持久的影响。
The US presidential election is entering its final stretch, with just over 20 days left until the vote. The outcome will have a significant and long-lasting impact on the crypto industry.
美国总统大选已进入最后阶段,距投票仅剩20多天。结果将对加密货币行业产生重大而持久的影响。
Several industry experts have made predictions about altcoins as the election countdown continues.
随着选举倒计时的继续,一些行业专家对山寨币做出了预测。
Here's what some of them had to say:
以下是其中一些人的说法:
- Altcoins Could Surge if Regulatory Barriers are Lifted
- 如果监管障碍解除,山寨币可能会飙升
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, believes that certain altcoins have not appreciated due to regulatory hurdles. He cited the case of Uniswap (UNI) to support his argument.
CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 认为,由于监管障碍,某些山寨币并未升值。他引用了Uniswap(UNI)的案例来支持他的论点。
Since 2022, Uniswap has proposed a fee switch mechanism, which would redistribute protocol fees to UNI token holders. However, Uniswap expressed concerns that this feature might expose the project to legal risks, and UNI could be classified as a security. In April 2024, the SEC issued Well Notes to Uniswap, prompting the project to delay its proposal.
自 2022 年起,Uniswap 提出了费用转换机制,将协议费用重新分配给 UNI 代币持有者。不过,Uniswap 表示担心这一功能可能会让项目面临法律风险,并且 UNI 可能被归类为证券。 2024年4月,SEC向Uniswap发布了Well Notes,促使该项目推迟了提案。
Ki Young Ju suggests that if the fee switch were activated, investors could use the redistributed funds to drive up UNI’s price.
Ki Young Ju建议,如果费用开关被激活,投资者可以利用重新分配的资金来推高UNI的价格。
“For example, if Uniswap’s fee switch had been activated, its treasury could hold $314 million. Currently, there are $408 million worth of UNI on centralized exchanges. If the treasury were used for buybacks, prices could have surged by 10x-100x, depending on order book depth. (Not financial advice; I don’t hold UNI.)”
“例如,如果 Uniswap 的费用开关已激活,其金库可能持有 3.14 亿美元。目前,中心化交易所上有价值 4.08 亿美元的 UNI。如果资金用于回购,价格可能会飙升 10 倍至 100 倍,具体取决于订单深度。 (不是财务建议;我不持有 UNI。)”
He also predicts that if Donald Trump wins the election, new regulations might allow the fee switch to be implemented, boosting UNI’s price.
他还预测,如果唐纳德·特朗普赢得大选,新法规可能会允许实施费用转换,从而推高 UNI 的价格。
- Altcoins Poised for Surges Based on Historical Models
- 基于历史模型的山寨币即将飙升
Other analysts are focusing on past market patterns to forecast a year-end altcoin season.
其他分析师则专注于过去的市场模式来预测年底的山寨币季节。
CRG’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s current phase resembles the late 2020 cycle. He observed that more than 100 weeks after Bitcoin’s bottom, its price typically climbs to a new peak, followed by an altcoin rally a week later.
CRG 的分析表明,比特币当前阶段类似于 2020 年末周期。他观察到,比特币触底 100 多周后,其价格通常会攀升至新高,一周后山寨币就会出现反弹。
“Compared to previous cycles, we appear to be right on track for an explosive 3rd year. If we are to repeat the last cycle, time wise, BTC is 4 weeks away from price discovery + BTC dominance is 5 weeks away from a multi month top” CRG predicted.
“与之前的周期相比,我们似乎正处于爆炸性的第三年。如果我们要重复上一个周期,从时间上看,BTC 距离价格发现还有 4 周,而 BTC 的主导地位距离数月见顶还有 5 周”,CRG 预测。
CRG also noted that Bitcoin’s dominance has remained high throughout 2023, suggesting that altcoins have not fully recovered from the 2022 bear market. However, he expects this trend to reverse soon.
CRG 还指出,比特币的主导地位在整个 2023 年仍然保持较高水平,这表明山寨币尚未完全从 2022 年的熊市中恢复过来。不过,他预计这种趋势很快就会逆转。
“Throughout 2023, BTC dominance has remained high (last time was 2021), suggesting that lower time frames have not fully had their alt season yet from the 2022 bear market. Expecting this to begin within the next 1-2 months.”
“在整个 2023 年,BTC 的主导地位仍然很高(上次是 2021 年),这表明较低的时间框架尚未完全结束 2022 年熊市的替代季节。预计这将在未来 1-2 个月内开始。”
Moreover, Michaël van de Poppe believes that the altcoin season will kickstart in the next 15 days, citing the altcoin market capitalization (TOTAL3).
此外,Michaël van de Poppe 援引山寨币市值 (TOTAL3) 的说法,认为山寨币季节将在未来 15 天内启动。
“The Altcoin market capitalization looks ready for a breakout. The next 1-2 weeks are likely going to provide that breakout.”
“山寨币市值看起来已经准备好突破。接下来的 1-2 周可能会出现突破。”
According to these timelines, altcoins could witness a strong rally after the election on November 5. Polymarket currently gives Trump a 54% chance of winning. Moreover, another observation shows that during the last four presidential terms, Bitcoin experienced its best growth during Trump’s presidency.
根据这些时间表,山寨币可能会在 11 月 5 日大选后出现强劲反弹。Polymarket 目前认为特朗普获胜的机会为 54%。此外,另一项观察显示,在过去四届总统任期内,比特币在特朗普总统任期内经历了最好的增长。
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