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美國總統大選已進入最後階段,距離投票僅剩20多天。結果將對加密貨幣行業產生重大且持久的影響。
The US presidential election is entering its final stretch, with just over 20 days left until the vote. The outcome will have a significant and long-lasting impact on the crypto industry.
美國總統大選已進入最後階段,距離投票僅剩20多天。結果將對加密貨幣行業產生重大且持久的影響。
Several industry experts have made predictions about altcoins as the election countdown continues.
隨著選舉倒數計時的繼續,一些行業專家對山寨幣做出了預測。
Here's what some of them had to say:
以下是其中一些人的說法:
- Altcoins Could Surge if Regulatory Barriers are Lifted
- 如果監管障礙解除,山寨幣可能會飆升
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, believes that certain altcoins have not appreciated due to regulatory hurdles. He cited the case of Uniswap (UNI) to support his argument.
CryptoQuant 執行長 Ki Young Ju 認為,由於監管障礙,某些山寨幣並未升值。他引用了Uniswap(UNI)的案例來支持他的論點。
Since 2022, Uniswap has proposed a fee switch mechanism, which would redistribute protocol fees to UNI token holders. However, Uniswap expressed concerns that this feature might expose the project to legal risks, and UNI could be classified as a security. In April 2024, the SEC issued Well Notes to Uniswap, prompting the project to delay its proposal.
自 2022 年起,Uniswap 提出了費用轉換機制,將協議費用重新分配給 UNI 代幣持有者。不過,Uniswap 表示擔心這項功能可能會讓專案面臨法律風險,而 UNI 可能被歸類為證券。 2024年4月,SEC向Uniswap發布了Well Notes,促使該專案延後了提案。
Ki Young Ju suggests that if the fee switch were activated, investors could use the redistributed funds to drive up UNI’s price.
Ki Young Ju建議,如果費用開關被激活,投資者可以利用重新分配的資金來推高UNI的價格。
“For example, if Uniswap’s fee switch had been activated, its treasury could hold $314 million. Currently, there are $408 million worth of UNI on centralized exchanges. If the treasury were used for buybacks, prices could have surged by 10x-100x, depending on order book depth. (Not financial advice; I don’t hold UNI.)”
「例如,如果 Uniswap 的費用開關已激活,其金庫可能持有 3.14 億美元。目前,中心化交易所上有價值 4.08 億美元的 UNI。如果資金用於回購,價格可能會飆升 10 倍至 100 倍,具體取決於訂單深度。 (不是財務建議;我不持有 UNI。)”
He also predicts that if Donald Trump wins the election, new regulations might allow the fee switch to be implemented, boosting UNI’s price.
他還預測,如果唐納德·川普贏得大選,新法規可能會允許實施費用轉換,從而推高 UNI 的價格。
- Altcoins Poised for Surges Based on Historical Models
- 基於歷史模型的山寨幣即將飆升
Other analysts are focusing on past market patterns to forecast a year-end altcoin season.
其他分析師則專注於過去的市場模式來預測年底的山寨幣季節。
CRG’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s current phase resembles the late 2020 cycle. He observed that more than 100 weeks after Bitcoin’s bottom, its price typically climbs to a new peak, followed by an altcoin rally a week later.
CRG 的分析表明,比特幣當前階段類似於 2020 年末週期。他觀察到,比特幣觸底超過 100 週後,其價格通常會攀升至新高,一週後山寨幣就會反彈。
“Compared to previous cycles, we appear to be right on track for an explosive 3rd year. If we are to repeat the last cycle, time wise, BTC is 4 weeks away from price discovery + BTC dominance is 5 weeks away from a multi month top” CRG predicted.
「與之前的周期相比,我們似乎正處於爆炸性的第三年。如果我們要重複上一個週期,從時間上看,BTC 距離價格發現還有 4 週,而 BTC 的主導地位距離數月見頂還有 5 週”,CRG 預測。
CRG also noted that Bitcoin’s dominance has remained high throughout 2023, suggesting that altcoins have not fully recovered from the 2022 bear market. However, he expects this trend to reverse soon.
CRG 還指出,比特幣的主導地位在整個 2023 年仍然保持在較高水平,這表明山寨幣尚未完全從 2022 年的熊市中恢復過來。不過,他預計這種趨勢很快就會逆轉。
“Throughout 2023, BTC dominance has remained high (last time was 2021), suggesting that lower time frames have not fully had their alt season yet from the 2022 bear market. Expecting this to begin within the next 1-2 months.”
「在整個 2023 年,BTC 的主導地位仍然很高(上次是 2021 年),這表明較低的時間框架尚未完全結束 2022 年熊市的替代季節。預計這將在未來 1-2 個月內開始。
Moreover, Michaël van de Poppe believes that the altcoin season will kickstart in the next 15 days, citing the altcoin market capitalization (TOTAL3).
此外,Michaël van de Poppe 引述山寨幣市值 (TOTAL3) 的說法,認為山寨幣季節將在未來 15 天內啟動。
“The Altcoin market capitalization looks ready for a breakout. The next 1-2 weeks are likely going to provide that breakout.”
「山寨幣市值看起來已經準備好突破。接下來的 1-2 週可能會出現突破。
According to these timelines, altcoins could witness a strong rally after the election on November 5. Polymarket currently gives Trump a 54% chance of winning. Moreover, another observation shows that during the last four presidential terms, Bitcoin experienced its best growth during Trump’s presidency.
根據這些時間表,山寨幣可能會在 11 月 5 日大選後出現強勁反彈。此外,另一項觀察顯示,在過去四屆總統任期內,比特幣在川普總統任期內經歷了最好的成長。
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