山寨币季节指数显示山寨币季节已经过去近两周了

随着比特币 [BTC] 争夺 10 万美元水平的控制权，山寨币有时间走高。但这是一种普遍现象——在公牛中

Bitcoin [BTC]’s struggle for the $100k level has provided a chance for altcoins to trend higher. Usually, in a bull run, whenever BTC trends higher, most altcoins stand still and vice versa. This ties in well with the idea of capital rotation in the crypto market.

比特币 [BTC] 争夺 10 万美元的水平为山寨币提供了走高的机会。通常，在牛市中，每当 BTC 上涨时，大多数山寨币都会保持不变，反之亦然。这与加密货币市场的资本轮换理念非常吻合。

The altcoin season index showed that it has been altcoin season for nearly two weeks now, but the reading had already receded to 71 at press time.

山寨币季节指数显示，山寨币季节已经过去近两周了，但截至发稿时该读数已回落至 71。

However, this does not mean that the cycle is over and it’s time to sell – Far from it.

然而，这并不意味着周期已经结束，是时候卖出了——远非如此。

Altcoin season timeline, and the fuel that would drive it

山寨币季节时间表以及推动它的燃料

Stablecoins are critical for the crypto ecosystem. They provide a safe haven from volatility, provide liquidity to the market, and enable DeFi activities. A hike in stablecoin flows to exchanges is bullish and a sign of heightened buying power.

稳定币对于加密生态系统至关重要。它们提供了抵御波动的避风港，为市场提供流动性，并支持 DeFi 活动。流入交易所的稳定币流量增加是看涨的，也是购买力增强的迹象。

For instance- We can see the Tether [USDT] exchange reserves rocketed higher over the past three months.

例如，我们可以看到 Tether [USDT] 外汇储备在过去三个月中飙升。

Zooming in on the 2020-21 run, increased exchange reserves of Tether, one of the most popular stablecoins, coincided with a full-blown altcoin season. Minting stablecoins and their transfer from the treasury to centralized exchanges helps with liquidity and facilitating transactions, and is the ammunition for large buyers.

纵观 2020-21 年，最受欢迎的稳定币之一 Tether 的外汇储备增加，恰逢山寨币全面成熟的季节。铸造稳定币并将其从金库转移到中心化交易所有助于提高流动性并促进交易，是大型买家的弹药。

The 2021 February jump in reserves was similar to the past two months, and it is possible that the true altcoin season is yet to arrive. In the previous cycle, it came in May and November 2021. This time around too, we might have to wait for Q2 and Q4 2025 for jaw-dropping gains like last time.

2021 年 2 月的储备增长与过去两个月相似，真正的山寨币季节可能尚未到来。上一个周期是在 2021 年 5 月和 11 月。这一次，我们可能也必须等到 2025 年第二季度和第四季度才能像上次一样获得令人惊叹的收益。

Market capitalization targets for 2025

2025 年市值目标

From its 2018 highs, the altcoin market cap (excluding Ethereum [ETH]) reached just beyond the 223.6% extension level at $1.12 trillion in 2021. Similarly, using the 2021 run, AMBCrypto found that the 2025 target at the 223.6% extension level was $3.47 trillion.

从 2018 年的高点开始，山寨币市值（不包括以太坊 [ETH]）在 2021 年达到了略高于 223.6% 扩展水平的 1.12 万亿美元。同样，根据 2021 年的运行情况，AMBCrypto 发现 2025 年 223.6% 扩展水平的目标是3.47 万亿美元。

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25

阅读比特币 [BTC] 2024-25 价格预测

If the previous cycle repeats itself, we can expect the altcoin market cap to reach these levels within the next ten months. It is possible that once the tax season in the U.S. is over by April, any tax-related selling would subside and participants re-enter as buyers, driving prices up during early summer.

如果上一个周期重演，我们预计山寨币市值将在未来十个月内达到这些水平。一旦美国的纳税季在四月份结束，任何与税收相关的抛售可能都会消退，参与者重新以买家身份进入，从而推高初夏期间的价格。

“Sell in May, walk away” is applicable to the crypto market as well. It is best not to rely too much on historical evidence as different summers provide different returns, but investors should plan on selling a portion of their holdings in May and November, while keeping an eye on long-term price trends.

“五月卖出，走开”也适用于加密货币市场。最好不要过分依赖历史证据，因为不同的夏季提供不同的回报，但投资者应计划在 5 月和 11 月出售部分持仓，同时关注长期价格趋势。