山寨幣季節指數顯示山寨幣季節已經過去近兩週了

隨著比特幣 [BTC] 爭奪 10 萬美元水平的控制權，山寨幣有時間走高。但這是一種普遍現象——在公牛中

Bitcoin [BTC]’s struggle for the $100k level has provided a chance for altcoins to trend higher. Usually, in a bull run, whenever BTC trends higher, most altcoins stand still and vice versa. This ties in well with the idea of capital rotation in the crypto market.

比特幣 [BTC] 爭奪 10 萬美元的水平為山寨幣提供了走高的機會。通常，在牛市中，每當 BTC 上漲時，大多數山寨幣都會保持不變，反之亦然。這與加密貨幣市場的資本輪換概念非常吻合。

The altcoin season index showed that it has been altcoin season for nearly two weeks now, but the reading had already receded to 71 at press time.

山寨幣季節指數顯示，山寨幣季節已經過去近兩週了，但截至發稿時該讀數已回落至 71。

However, this does not mean that the cycle is over and it’s time to sell – Far from it.

然而，這並不意味著週期已經結束，是時候賣出了——遠非如此。

Altcoin season timeline, and the fuel that would drive it

山寨幣季節時間表以及推動它的燃料

Stablecoins are critical for the crypto ecosystem. They provide a safe haven from volatility, provide liquidity to the market, and enable DeFi activities. A hike in stablecoin flows to exchanges is bullish and a sign of heightened buying power.

穩定幣對於加密生態系統至關重要。它們提供了免受波動的避風港，為市場提供流動性，並支援 DeFi 活動。流向交易所的穩定幣數量增加是看漲的，也是購買力增強的跡象。

For instance- We can see the Tether [USDT] exchange reserves rocketed higher over the past three months.

例如，我們可以看到 Tether [USDT] 外匯存底在過去三個月中飆升。

Zooming in on the 2020-21 run, increased exchange reserves of Tether, one of the most popular stablecoins, coincided with a full-blown altcoin season. Minting stablecoins and their transfer from the treasury to centralized exchanges helps with liquidity and facilitating transactions, and is the ammunition for large buyers.

縱觀 2020-21 年，最受歡迎的穩定幣之一 Tether 的外匯儲備增加，恰逢山寨幣全面成熟的季節。鑄造穩定幣並將其從金庫轉移到中心化交易所有助於提高流動性並促進交易，並且是大買家的彈藥。

The 2021 February jump in reserves was similar to the past two months, and it is possible that the true altcoin season is yet to arrive. In the previous cycle, it came in May and November 2021. This time around too, we might have to wait for Q2 and Q4 2025 for jaw-dropping gains like last time.

2021 年 2 月的儲備成長與過去兩個月相似，真正的山寨幣季節可能尚未到來。上一個週期是在 2021 年 5 月和 11 月。這一次，我們可能也必須等到 2025 年第二季和第四季才能像上次一樣獲得令人驚嘆的收益。

Market capitalization targets for 2025

2025 年市值目標

From its 2018 highs, the altcoin market cap (excluding Ethereum [ETH]) reached just beyond the 223.6% extension level at $1.12 trillion in 2021. Similarly, using the 2021 run, AMBCrypto found that the 2025 target at the 223.6% extension level was $3.47 trillion.

從2018 年的高點開始，山寨幣市值（不包括以太坊[ETH]）在2021 年達到了略高於223.6% 擴展水平的1.12 萬億美元。年223.6% 擴展水準的目標是3.47 兆美元。

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25

閱讀比特幣 [BTC] 2024-25 價格預測

If the previous cycle repeats itself, we can expect the altcoin market cap to reach these levels within the next ten months. It is possible that once the tax season in the U.S. is over by April, any tax-related selling would subside and participants re-enter as buyers, driving prices up during early summer.

如果上一個週期重演，我們可以預期山寨幣市值將在未來十個月內達到這些水準。一旦美國的納稅季在四月結束，任何與稅收相關的拋售可能都會消退，參與者重新以買家身份進入，從而推高初夏期間的價格。

“Sell in May, walk away” is applicable to the crypto market as well. It is best not to rely too much on historical evidence as different summers provide different returns, but investors should plan on selling a portion of their holdings in May and November, while keeping an eye on long-term price trends.

「五月賣出，走開」也適用於加密貨幣市場。最好不要過度依賴歷史證據，因為不同的夏季提供不同的回報，但投資者應該計劃在 5 月和 11 月出售部分持倉，同時專注於長期價格趨勢。