随着交易情绪转向新资产类别，山寨币市场可能永远不会复苏

较旧的硬币和代币可能会再次崩溃，甚至无法实现预期的山寨币复苏。

The altcoin market may never fully recover as traders have shifted their focus to new asset classes, and older coins and tokens may be due for another crash without even making the anticipated altcoin recovery.

由于交易者已将注意力转移到新的资产类别，山寨币市场可能永远不会完全复苏，而旧代币和代币可能会再次崩溃，甚至无法实现预期的山寨币复苏。

Altcoin markets did not achieve the bull run they expected in 2024, despite some managing to return to higher ranges. In the final quarter of the year, Bitcoin (BTC) regained its dominance, while the most promising altcoins either underperformed expectations or failed to launch a rally.

尽管一些山寨币市场设法回到更高的区间，但山寨币市场并未实现 2024 年预期的牛市。今年最后一个季度，比特币（BTC）重新占据主导地位，而最有前途的山寨币要么表现不及预期，要么未能发起反弹。

The rise of BTC coincided with a reversal of altcoin market shares.

比特币的崛起与山寨币市场份额的逆转同时发生。

According to Benjamin Cowen, altcoins are set to behave similarly to the market crash of 2020, when the entire market crashed to local lows. The last stage of altcoin crashes is just around the corner, in what Cowen calls an “altcoin reckoning.”

本杰明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 表示，山寨币的表现将类似于 2020 年的市场崩盘，当时整个市场跌至局部低点。山寨币崩盘的最后阶段即将到来，考恩称之为“山寨币清算”。

The problem with altcoins is that they have been dipping for a long time, with no relief rally coming. The market is also not guaranteed a return, even if the last months of 2024 lead to an even deeper altcoin correction.

山寨币的问题在于它们已经下跌了很长一段时间，并且没有出现缓解性反弹。即使 2024 年最后几个月导致山寨币出现更深层次的调整，市场也无法保证回报。

VC-backed projects continue to attract seed rounds, though at a much lower pace. The market also has to absorb the previous batch of VC-backed tokens with significant unlocks on their schedule.

风险投资支持的项目继续吸引种子轮融资，但速度要慢得多。市场还必须吸收上一批风投支持的代币，并按计划进行大量解锁。

Long-term projects like XRP and Cardano (ADA) have yet to prove their utility, and they lag behind on all trends. L2 tokens are also still being pressured by their long unlocking schedule.

像 XRP 和 Cardano (ADA) 这样的长期项目尚未证明其实用性，而且它们在所有趋势上都落后了。 L2 代币也仍然面临着漫长的解锁时间表的压力。

TRON (TRX) was one of the exceptions, getting close to its 2018 peak at $0.17, though the asset achieved this with regular token burns and a deflationary supply.

TRON (TRX) 是例外之一，接近 2018 年的峰值 0.17 美元，尽管该资产通过定期代币销毁和通货紧缩供应实现了这一目标。

There are multiple signs that some altcoins may not be coming back, with projects either pivoting or failing. Blue chip and utility altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) retain their value, though without moving into new price ranges.

有多种迹象表明，一些山寨币可能不会卷土重来，项目要么转向，要么失败。以太坊 (ETH) 和 Solana (SOL) 等蓝筹股和实用山寨币保留了其价值，但没有进入新的价格范围。

The altcoin capitulation may not be the end of trading interests for them. There are predictions for a bounce and a new altcoin season in early 2025. However, this time, a new selection of assets may lead the market, with some older meme tokens in the mix.

山寨币的投降可能并不是他们交易兴趣的终结。据预测，2025 年初将会出现反弹，并迎来新的山寨币季节。然而，这一次，新的资产选择可能会引领市场，其中还包括一些较旧的 Meme 代币。

The altcoin season index is back to 26, after peaking at 46 points in September. The index suggested three very short periods to realize gains from the top 100 altcoins in 2021 and 2023.

山寨币季节指数继 9 月份达到峰值 46 点后，又回到了 26 点。该指数建议在 2021 年和 2023 年三个非常短的时期内实现前 100 名山寨币的收益。

During those times, altcoins outperformed BTC, based on new types of assets. In 2024, the altcoin rally was smaller and again failed to bring back assets from previous bull markets. Even former blue chips like Monero (XMR), Litecoin (LTC), and Ethereum Classic (ETC) remained stagnant.

在那段时期，基于新型资产，山寨币的表现优于比特币。 2024 年，山寨币涨幅较小，再次未能从之前的牛市中带回资产。即使是像门罗币（XMR）、莱特币（LTC）和以太坊经典（ETC）这样的前蓝筹股也仍然停滞不前。

As BTC now trades under $69,000, the altcoin market suffered deeper losses. BTC’s dominance expanded to 59.4%, while smaller altcoins held just 27.7% of the market capitalization. Ethereum’s dominance is down to 12.7%, dashing hopes that ETH could inspire an altcoin rally.

由于 BTC 目前交易价格低于 69,000 美元，山寨币市场遭受了更大的损失。 BTC 的主导地位扩大到 59.4%，而较小的山寨币仅占市值的 27.7%。以太坊的主导地位已降至 12.7%，这让以太坊能够激发山寨币反弹的希望破灭。

One emerging trend on social media is the emphasis on community by crypto assets. Even VC-backed projects leverage hype for their success.

社交媒体的一个新兴趋势是加密资产对社区的重视。即使是风投支持的项目也会利用炒作来取得成功。

The altcoin index is formed by tracking assets in the top 100 based on market capitalization, though that list may shift with new tech trends. However, there is a noticeable shift of altcoins becoming meme coins or movements. Trading and short-term pumps are still one possible scenario for altcoin traders, but crypto has always served the demand for relatively easy 100X gains.

山寨币指数是根据市值跟踪前 100 名资产而形成的，尽管该列表可能会随着新技术趋势而变化。然而，山寨币正在明显转变为模因币或运动。对于山寨币交易者来说，交易和短期上涨仍然是一种可能的情况，但加密货币始终满足相对容易的 100 倍收益的需求。

Altcoins can offer fast recovery and some upside, but most established assets have already gone through their most active growth stages. According to Murad Mahmudov, there is more demand for memecoins than altcoins.

山寨币可以提供快速复苏和一些上涨空间，但大多数成熟资产已经经历了最活跃的增长阶段。 Murad Mahmudov 表示，对模因币的需求比对山寨币的需求更大。

Altcoins are trying to tap the meme frenzy. Even ETH and SOL retain their levels partially due to meme token trading. Some altcoins try to retain their utility by offering voting, rewards, or other forms of community participation to avoid sustained sell-offs.

山寨币正试图利用这种迷因狂热。甚至 ETH 和 SOL 也能保持其水平，部分原因是 meme 代币交易。一些山寨币试图通过提供投票、奖励或其他形式的社区参与来保留其效用，以避免持续抛售。

Some utility coins also try to emulate the community-driven ethos. Altcoins are often used for staking, as one incentive to avoid selling. However, memecoins perform better on the matter of irrational holding, where the buyers do not capitulate even with a 70% drawdown.

一些实用代币也试图效仿社区驱动的精神。山寨币通常用于质押，作为避免出售的一种激励措施。然而，memecoin 在非理性持有方面表现更好，即使亏损 70%，买家也不会屈服。