隨著交易情緒轉向新資產類別，山寨幣市場可能永遠不會復甦

較舊的硬幣和代幣可能會再次崩潰，甚至無法實現預期的山寨幣復甦。

The altcoin market may never fully recover as traders have shifted their focus to new asset classes, and older coins and tokens may be due for another crash without even making the anticipated altcoin recovery.

由於交易者已將注意力轉移到新的資產類別，山寨幣市場可能永遠不會完全復甦，而舊代幣和代幣可能會再次崩潰，甚至無法實現預期的山寨幣復甦。

Altcoin markets did not achieve the bull run they expected in 2024, despite some managing to return to higher ranges. In the final quarter of the year, Bitcoin (BTC) regained its dominance, while the most promising altcoins either underperformed expectations or failed to launch a rally.

儘管一些山寨幣市場設法回到更高的區間，但山寨幣市場並未實現 2024 年預期的牛市。今年最後一個季度，比特幣（BTC）重新佔據主導地位，而最有前途的山寨幣要么表現不如預期，要么未能發起反彈。

The rise of BTC coincided with a reversal of altcoin market shares.

比特幣的崛起與山寨幣市場份額的逆轉同時發生。

According to Benjamin Cowen, altcoins are set to behave similarly to the market crash of 2020, when the entire market crashed to local lows. The last stage of altcoin crashes is just around the corner, in what Cowen calls an “altcoin reckoning.”

本傑明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 表示，山寨幣的表現將類似於 2020 年的市場崩盤，當時整個市場跌至局部低點。山寨幣崩潰的最後階段即將到來，考恩稱之為「山寨幣清算」。

The problem with altcoins is that they have been dipping for a long time, with no relief rally coming. The market is also not guaranteed a return, even if the last months of 2024 lead to an even deeper altcoin correction.

山寨幣的問題在於它們已經下跌了很長一段時間，並且沒有緩解性反彈。即使 2024 年最後幾個月導致山寨幣出現更深層的調整，市場也無法保證回報。

VC-backed projects continue to attract seed rounds, though at a much lower pace. The market also has to absorb the previous batch of VC-backed tokens with significant unlocks on their schedule.

創投支持的項目繼續吸引種子輪融資，但速度要慢得多。市場還必須吸收上一批風投支持的代幣，並按計劃進行大量解鎖。

Long-term projects like XRP and Cardano (ADA) have yet to prove their utility, and they lag behind on all trends. L2 tokens are also still being pressured by their long unlocking schedule.

像 XRP 和 Cardano (ADA) 這樣的長期專案尚未證明其實用性，而且它們在所有趨勢上都落後了。 L2 代幣也仍然面臨著漫長的解鎖時間表的壓力。

TRON (TRX) was one of the exceptions, getting close to its 2018 peak at $0.17, though the asset achieved this with regular token burns and a deflationary supply.

TRON (TRX) 是例外之一，接近 2018 年的峰值 0.17 美元，儘管該資產透過定期代幣銷毀和通貨緊縮供應實現了這一目標。

There are multiple signs that some altcoins may not be coming back, with projects either pivoting or failing. Blue chip and utility altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) retain their value, though without moving into new price ranges.

有多種跡象表明，一些山寨幣可能不會捲土重來，專案要么轉向，要么失敗。以太坊 (ETH) 和 Solana (SOL) 等藍籌股和實用山寨幣保留了其價值，但沒有進入新的價格範圍。

The altcoin capitulation may not be the end of trading interests for them. There are predictions for a bounce and a new altcoin season in early 2025. However, this time, a new selection of assets may lead the market, with some older meme tokens in the mix.

山寨幣的投降可能不是他們交易興趣的終點。根據預測，2025 年初將會反彈，並迎來新的山寨幣季節。

The altcoin season index is back to 26, after peaking at 46 points in September. The index suggested three very short periods to realize gains from the top 100 altcoins in 2021 and 2023.

山寨幣季節指數繼 9 月達到高峰 46 點後，又回到了 26 點。該指數建議在 2021 年和 2023 年三個非常短的時期內實現前 100 名山寨幣的收益。

During those times, altcoins outperformed BTC, based on new types of assets. In 2024, the altcoin rally was smaller and again failed to bring back assets from previous bull markets. Even former blue chips like Monero (XMR), Litecoin (LTC), and Ethereum Classic (ETC) remained stagnant.

在那段時期，基於新型資產，山寨幣的表現優於比特幣。 2024 年，山寨幣漲幅較小，再次未能從先前的牛市帶回資產。即使是像門羅幣（XMR）、萊特幣（LTC）和以太坊經典（ETC）這樣的前藍籌股也仍然停滯不前。

As BTC now trades under $69,000, the altcoin market suffered deeper losses. BTC’s dominance expanded to 59.4%, while smaller altcoins held just 27.7% of the market capitalization. Ethereum’s dominance is down to 12.7%, dashing hopes that ETH could inspire an altcoin rally.

由於 BTC 目前交易價格低於 69,000 美元，山寨幣市場遭受了更大的損失。 BTC 的主導地位擴大到 59.4%，而較小的山寨幣僅佔市值的 27.7%。以太坊的主導地位已降至 12.7%，這讓以太坊能夠激發山寨幣反彈的希望破滅。

One emerging trend on social media is the emphasis on community by crypto assets. Even VC-backed projects leverage hype for their success.

社群媒體的一個新興趨勢是加密資產對社區的重視。即使是創投支持的項目也會利用炒作來取得成功。

The altcoin index is formed by tracking assets in the top 100 based on market capitalization, though that list may shift with new tech trends. However, there is a noticeable shift of altcoins becoming meme coins or movements. Trading and short-term pumps are still one possible scenario for altcoin traders, but crypto has always served the demand for relatively easy 100X gains.

山寨幣指數是根據市值追蹤前 100 名資產而形成的，儘管該清單可能會隨著新技術趨勢而變化。然而，山寨幣正在明顯轉變為迷因幣或運動。對於山寨幣交易者來說，交易和短期上漲仍然是一種可能的情況，但加密貨幣始終滿足相對容易的 100 倍收益的需求。

Altcoins can offer fast recovery and some upside, but most established assets have already gone through their most active growth stages. According to Murad Mahmudov, there is more demand for memecoins than altcoins.

山寨幣可以提供快速復甦和一些上漲空間，但大多數成熟資產已經經歷了最活躍的成長階段。 Murad Mahmudov 表示，對迷因幣的需求比對山寨幣的需求更大。

Altcoins are trying to tap the meme frenzy. Even ETH and SOL retain their levels partially due to meme token trading. Some altcoins try to retain their utility by offering voting, rewards, or other forms of community participation to avoid sustained sell-offs.

山寨幣正試圖利用這種迷因狂熱。甚至 ETH 和 SOL 也能保持其水平，部分原因是 meme 代幣交易。一些山寨幣試圖透過提供投票、獎勵或其他形式的社區參與來保留其效用，以避免持續拋售。

Some utility coins also try to emulate the community-driven ethos. Altcoins are often used for staking, as one incentive to avoid selling. However, memecoins perform better on the matter of irrational holding, where the buyers do not capitulate even with a 70% drawdown.

一些實用代幣也試圖效法社群驅動的精神。山寨幣通常用於質押，作為避免出售的一種激勵措施。然而，memecoin 在非理性持有方面表現較好，即使虧損 70%，買家也不會屈服。