如何准确预测牛市的顶峰？您必须掌握这9个关键指标！

几乎不可能准确预测加密市场公牛运行的峰值，但是您可以使用这些数据指标来确定是否是否

It's almost impossible to accurately predict the peak of the crypto market bull run, but you can use these data indicators to determine whether the market is close to the top.

几乎不可能准确地预测加密市场公牛运行的峰值，但是您可以使用这些数据指标来确定市场是否接近顶部。

If all five signs appear at the same time, then you have either accumulated enough wealth or you can only go back to work at McDonald's...

如果所有五个迹象都同时出现，那么您要么积累了足够的财富，要么只能回到麦当劳工作...

Now, let us uncover the secret of the end of the bull market.

现在，让我们揭开牛市结束的秘密。

1. NUPL (Unrealized Net Profit/Loss)

1。NUPL（未实现的净利润/损失）

Market Sentiment Indicators

市场情绪指标

When NUPL enters the mania/greed zone (over 75%), it usually means that the market is close to a top and investors are becoming overly optimistic.

当Nupl进入躁狂/贪婪区（超过75％）时，通常意味着市场接近顶部，投资者变得过于乐观。

2. RSI (Relative Strength Index)

2。RSI（相对强度指数）

Short-term overbought signal

短期超买信号

When the RSI exceeds 90, the market is usually in an extremely overbought state, and historical data shows that highs are usually formed within 4-7 weeks, followed by a correction.

当RSI超过90时，市场通常处于极为超出的状态，历史数据表明，高点通常在4-7周内形成，然后进行更正。

3. Altcoin Season Index

3。Altcoin季节指数

Altcoins vs Bitcoin

Altcoins与比特币

When the index exceeds 85, it means that altcoins as a whole are outperforming Bitcoin, which is usually a sign that the market has entered a frenzy phase.

当指数超过85时，这意味着山寨币整体上的表现优于比特币，这通常是市场进入疯狂阶段的标志。

4. MVRV Z-Score (Market Value vs Actual Value)

4。MVRVz得分（市场价值与实际价值）

Determining whether the market is extremely overvalued

确定市场是否非常高估

When the MVRV Z-Score exceeds 6, it indicates that the market may be close to the top and we need to be alert to the potential risk of a pullback.

当MVRV Z得分超过6时，这表明市场可能接近顶部，我们需要警惕回调的潜在风险。

5. Pi Cycle Top Indicator

5。PI循环顶部指示器

Accurately Identify the Peak of Bitcoin Bull Market

准确确定比特币牛市的峰值

This indicator has successfully predicted major price highs for Bitcoin over multiple cycles.

该指标已成功预测了比特币在多个周期中的主要价格高点。

When it sends out warning signals, it means the bull market is about to peak.

当它发出警告信号时，这意味着牛市即将达到顶峰。

6. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

6。MACD（移动平均收敛差异）

Trend Change and Momentum Signals

趋势变化和动量信号

When MACD forms a death cross, it means that market momentum is weakening and the trend may reverse.

当MACD形成死亡十字架时，这意味着市场动量正在减弱，趋势可能会逆转。

7. MFI (Money Flow Index)

7. MFI（货币流索引）

Buying and selling pressure monitoring

买卖压力监控

Similar to the RSI, but the MFI incorporates volume data and when it shows extreme overbought conditions, it often signals a market top.

与RSI相似，但是MFI包含了数量数据，当它显示出极端的过份条件时，它通常会标志着市场顶部。

8. Composite Business Cycle Index

8。综合商业周期指数

Macroeconomic impact

宏观经济的影响

When the index exceeds 50, it indicates that the market may be about to enter a peak phase.

当指数超过50时，这表明市场可能会进入峰值阶段。

9. Mayer Multiple

9. Mayer多重

Price vs 200 Day Moving Average

价格与200天移动平均

Historical data shows that when the Mayer Multiple reaches 2.4, Bitcoin is usually at the peak of a bull market.

历史数据表明，当Mayer多重达到2.4时，比特币通常处于牛市的顶峰。

In conclusion, although it is difficult to accurately predict the market peak, these 9 indicators can help you evaluate the market position more scientifically. The bull market frenzy can make you a lot of money, but if there is no clear exit strategy, it may also make you return to the pre-liberation era overnight.

总之，尽管很难准确预测市场的峰值，但这9个指标可以帮助您更科学地评估市场位置。牛市疯狂可以赚很多钱，但是如果没有明确的退出策略，它也可能会使您在一夜之间重返自由时代。