揭秘比特幣九月的下滑：綜合分析

隨著日曆翻到九月，比特幣愛好者們感受到了空氣中的寒意，不是來自秋風，而是來自加密貨幣的搖搖欲墜。

Bitcoin began September on a downturn, sparking concerns among enthusiasts. Despite closing August around $57,000, the cryptocurrency failed to gain buying pressure, leaving traders to wonder if another "Rektember" is on the horizon. Here's a closer look at the key factors impacting Bitcoin's September journey.

比特幣九月伊始就陷入低迷，引發了比特幣愛好者的擔憂。儘管 8 月收盤價約為 57,000 美元，但這種加密貨幣未能獲得購買壓力，讓交易員懷疑是否會出現另一個「Rektember」。以下是影響比特幣九月走勢的關鍵因素的詳細分析。

Bitcoin's failure to gain momentum and break away from bearish tendencies has left the community speculating on the next move. According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, low buying pressure failed to counter persistent sell-side momentum.

比特幣未能獲得動力並擺脫看跌趨勢，這讓社群對下一步走勢進行猜測。根據 Cointelegraph Markets Pro 和 TradingView 的數據，低買方動能未能抵銷持續的賣方動能。

Any potential recovery for Bitcoin hinges on strong buyer interest. Recent observations have noted a consistent buyer around the $58K mark, providing a possible point of interest for an upward trend. However, we need to see evidence of sustained demand, especially given the minimal derivatives market interest and negative funding rates.

比特幣的任何潛在復甦都取決於買家的強烈興趣。最近的觀察表明，在 58,000 美元大關附近有持續的買家，這為上漲趨勢提供了可能的興趣點。然而，我們需要看到持續需求的證據，特別是考慮到衍生性商品市場利率最低和負融資利率。

The Labor Day week usually brings a slowdown in U.S. markets. However, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision pending on September 18, macroeconomic indicators are in the spotlight, especially the U.S. unemployment figures. Shifts in rate expectations and job data could significantly impact Bitcoin's trajectory.

勞動節週通常會導緻美國市場放緩。然而，隨著聯準會將於9月18日公佈利率決定，宏觀經濟指標備受關注，尤其是美國失業數據。利率預期和就業數據的變化可能會對比特幣的走勢產生重大影響。

Historically, September has not been kind to Bitcoin, often closing in the red. This year seems to be following a similar trend, with early indicators suggesting a continuing downtrend. However, it's essential to maintain a long-term perspective. Bitcoin's post-halving cycles and historical performance suggest potential breakouts, hinting that October could bring a much-needed upswing.

從歷史上看，9月份對比特幣來說並不好，經常以虧損收盤。今年似乎也遵循了類似的趨勢，早期指標顯示持續下降趨勢。然而，保持長遠的眼光至關重要。比特幣減半後的周期和歷史表現表明潛在的突破，暗示十月可能會帶來急需的上漲。

The Puell Multiple provides an assessment of the profitability of Bitcoin mining relative to historical averages, serving as a bellwether for market cycles. Currently positioned between the buy and sell zones, the metric suggests a cautious approach. Potential entry points may emerge as the Multiple approaches its critical historical "buy" zone.

普埃爾倍數提供了比特幣挖礦相對於歷史平均值的獲利能力評估，作為市場週期的風向標。該指標目前位於買入和賣出區域之間，顯示採取謹慎態度。當多重指數接近其關鍵的歷史「買入」區域時，潛在的切入點可能會出現。

Despite the pessimistic outset, deep learning models offer a different narrative. Predictions from CryptoQuant's WaveNet model suggest a possible price increase for Bitcoin in September, countering the traditional "Rektember" narrative. Such forecasts, derived from historical and current data analysis, provide a glimmer of hope for those seeking signs of recovery.

儘管一開始很悲觀，但深度學習模型提供了不同的敘述。 CryptoQuant 的 WaveNet 模型的預測表明，9 月比特幣價格可能會上漲，這與傳統的「Rektember」說法相反。這些基於歷史和當前數據分析得出的預測為那些尋求復甦跡象的人帶來了一線希望。