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選擇權合約賦予投資者在指定日期之前以預定價格買賣資產的權利,但沒有義務。
A large volume of Bitcoin options, amounting to $1.4 billion, are set to expire today, potentially influencing the market dynamics. This expiry is substantial but less significant compared to the upcoming month-end expiry, which will involve around $3.2 billion.
價值 14 億美元的大量比特幣選擇權將於今天到期,這可能會影響市場動態。這次到期雖然金額很大,但與即將到來的月底到期相比,意義不大,後者將涉及約 32 億美元。
The expiring Bitcoin options have a put/call ratio of 0.82, indicating slightly more call options (bullish bets) than put options (bearish bets). The “max pain” point, where the maximum number of investors will face losses, is around $59,500. This price point is just above Bitcoin's current spot price, suggesting some potential for price movement towards this level.
即將到期的比特幣選擇權的看跌/看漲比率為 0.82,顯示看漲期權(看漲押注)略多於看跌期權(看跌押注)。 「最大痛苦」點(即最大數量的投資者將面臨損失)約為 59,500 美元。該價格點略高於比特幣當前的現貨價格,表明價格有可能向該水平波動。
There is still a significant amount of open interest (OI) in Bitcoin options at higher strike prices. Almost $700 million in OI lies between $65,000 and $75,000, and over $900 million in OI is present at the $100,000 strike price. These large open interest concentrations could impact Bitcoin's price as traders adjust their positions.
比特幣選擇權仍有大量未平倉合約,且執行價格較高。近 7 億美元的 OI 價格在 65,000 美元至 75,000 美元之間,而以 100,000 美元的執行價格計算,OI 的價值超過 9 億美元。隨著交易者調整頭寸,這些大量的未平倉合約可能會影響比特幣的價格。
The expiry of such a large volume of options is expected to impact market volatility. Options expirations can lead to sharp price movements, especially if the underlying asset's price approaches the strike prices of many outstanding options. This can result in increased buying or selling pressure as traders make adjustments to their positions.
如此大量的期權到期預計將影響市場波動。選擇權到期可能會導致價格急劇波動,特別是當標的資產的價格接近許多未到期選擇權的執行價格時。當交易者調整頭寸時,這可能會導致買入或賣出壓力增加。
In recent weeks, the overall market volatility has decreased. Reports from Greeks Live, a well-known crypto derivatives provider, indicate that the implied volatility (IV) for major crypto assets has fallen following recent U.S. economic data releases, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI). The decline in IV suggests that the market might experience a period of relative stability.
最近幾週,整體市場波動性減弱。知名加密貨幣衍生性商品供應商Greeks Live 的報告顯示,近期美國生產者物價指數(PPI) 和消費者物價指數(CPI) 等經濟數據發布後,主要加密資產的隱含波動率(IV) 有所下降。 IV 的下降表明市場可能會經歷一段相對穩定的時期。
This reduction in volatility expectations may lead to a more stable trading environment for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. However, the expiry of such a large number of options could introduce short-term volatility.
波動性預期的降低可能為比特幣和其他加密貨幣帶來更穩定的交易環境。然而,如此大量的期權到期可能會帶來短期波動。
In the lead-up to today's expiry, Bitcoin has seen a decline of approximately 2.2% over the past 12 hours. Its total market capitalization has dropped to $2.15 trillion, marking its lowest level since last week's recovery. Bitcoin's price fell to an intraday low of $56,650 but managed to recover to around $58,000 during the Friday morning trading session in Asia. This $58,000 level is being closely watched as a crucial support point.
在今天到期之前,比特幣在過去 12 小時內下跌了約 2.2%。其總市值已降至2.15兆美元,創下自上週復甦以來的最低水準。比特幣價格跌至盤中低點 56,650 美元,但在周五亞洲早盤交易時段成功回升至 58,000 美元左右。 58,000 美元的水平作為一個關鍵支撐點受到密切關注。
Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Movements
比特幣和以太幣價格走勢
Ethereum has also faced downward pressure, with its price falling to $2,532 before recovering to around $2,600 in recent hours. The broader cryptocurrency market reflects a similar pattern, with many altcoins experiencing declines and contributing to a generally bearish sentiment.
以太幣也面臨下行壓力,其價格跌至 2,532 美元,然後在最近幾個小時恢復至 2,600 美元左右。更廣泛的加密貨幣市場也反映了類似的模式,許多山寨幣經歷了下跌並導致了普遍的看跌情緒。
Broader Market Implications
更廣泛的市場影響
The expiry of Bitcoin and Ethereum options adds complexity to the current market conditions. As these options expire, traders and investors are keenly observing the potential impacts on Bitcoin's price and overall market stability. While today's expiry might lead to some immediate price movements, the more significant month-end expiry and ongoing market conditions will play crucial roles in shaping future trends.
比特幣和以太坊期權的到期增加了當前市場狀況的複雜性。隨著這些選擇權到期,交易者和投資者正在敏銳地觀察其對比特幣價格和整體市場穩定性的潛在影響。雖然今天的到期可能會導致一些直接的價格變動,但更重要的月底到期和持續的市場狀況將在塑造未來趨勢方面發揮至關重要的作用。
Investors should be prepared for possible short-term volatility as the options expiry unfolds. It’s essential to stay informed and consider how this event might affect your investment strategy.
隨著期權到期,投資者應為可能的短期波動做好準備。及時了解情況並考慮此事件可能如何影響您的投資策略至關重要。
Looking Ahead
展望未來
As we move through today’s expiry event, the key factors to watch include Bitcoin's ability to maintain support around the $58,000 level and any potential shifts in market sentiment. The larger month-end expiry event will be another critical moment for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. This event will involve a substantial amount of options contracts, and its impact could be more pronounced.
當我們經歷今天的到期事件時,我們需要關注的關鍵因素包括比特幣維持 58,000 美元水平附近支撐的能力以及市場情緒的任何潛在變化。更大規模的月底到期事件將是比特幣和更廣泛的加密市場的另一個關鍵時刻。此次事件將涉及大量選擇權合約,其影響可能更為明顯。
In conclusion, the expiry of $1.4 billion in Bitcoin options today is a significant event for the cryptocurrency market. While the immediate impact might be moderate, the potential for increased volatility and market adjustments is high. Investors should remain vigilant and consider the implications of these developments on their trading strategies and investment decisions.
總之,今天價值 14 億美元的比特幣選擇權到期對於加密貨幣市場來說是一個重大事件。雖然直接影響可能不大,但波動性和市場調整的可能性很高。投資人應保持警惕,並考慮這些事態發展對其交易策略和投資決策的影響。
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